Scott Brown's chances in 2012 (user search)
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  Scott Brown's chances in 2012 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Scott Brown's chances in 2012  (Read 4626 times)
Kevin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,424
United States


« on: August 07, 2010, 05:57:34 PM »

I'd say he has about a 50% chance of being reelected. His approvals being high is a good electoral sign, but Lincoln Chafee was defeated in 2006 despite having high approval ratings. Thus, if Obama does really well in MA in 2012 (winning 60+% of the vote there), then I could see a strong Democrat like Capuano defeating Brown.

Chafee's approvals weren't that hot if I recall, they were around 53-45% approve at the time he was defeated if a little lower.
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Kevin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,424
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2010, 04:25:04 PM »

Vicky Kennedy would be a good candidate and Senator, and I wouldn't mind her running, but it's disappointing that the Mass DP thinks other candidates wouldn't be likely to do well. Brown may be moderate by national GOP standards (which says more about the latter than the former), but he's definitely to the right of most recent New England Republicans--Snowe, Collins, Shays, N. Johnson, Chafee--except for New Hampshire, and even then, has had their GOP moderate (Sununu replaced Bob Smith, Jeb Bradley replaced Sununu, Gregg has voted more moderate recently).

Of course if what you say is correct in your feelings then there is the possibility that Brown could be helped out by a hard fought Democratic primary.
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