PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[kwabbit]

Is McCormick really the best the establishment Republicans can do?

If they're dead set on nominating a phony hedge fund executive couldn't they have found one that wasn't a carpetbagger?

The carpetbagger attack hurt Oz last time and I dont see why it wont be at least partially effective this time, and McCormick is easy to paint as an elitist.

Pennsylvania is a huge state, there are tons of Republicans who are immune to both attacks. I get that someone like Fitzpatrick could never win the primary, but why isn't the establishment uniting behind someone better than McCormick?

Who else is there? I doubt any of the House Rs want to lose their seats for a probable loss, and the State Officers are running for re-election, and so that leaves McCormick.

Honestly they could just run Oz again lol. The carpetbagger attacks might not be effective on a second go around. McCormick still has to face a campaign introducing him as a Connecticut resident to the entire state, despite him growing up in PA it will hurt him too.

[Ricardian1485]

Is McCormick really the best the establishment Republicans can do?

If they're dead set on nominating a phony hedge fund executive couldn't they have found one that wasn't a carpetbagger?

The carpetbagger attack hurt Oz last time and I dont see why it wont be at least partially effective this time, and McCormick is easy to paint as an elitist.

Pennsylvania is a huge state, there are tons of Republicans who are immune to both attacks. I get that someone like Fitzpatrick could never win the primary, but why isn't the establishment uniting behind someone better than McCormick?

Who else is there? I doubt any of the House Rs want to lose their seats for a probable loss, and the State Officers are running for re-election, and so that leaves McCormick.

I dont think the challenger necessarily has to be an office holder. Back in 1994 Mitt Romney temporarily left Bain capital to run against Ted Kennedy, he ended up losing but was able to resume his corporate position. There has to be some born and bred Pennsylvanian Republican executive who could put up a pronounced challenge to Bob Casey from a blank slate. They would probably still lose, but might have a chance depending on the national climate come election day.

Trump and Toomey won Pennsylvania in 2016, and it looks like the republican field is relatively sparse this time around. Oz was certainly hurt in the general by the attack ads directed at him during the primary. If the field stays sparse, and one major contender arises then they wont have to carry over any baggage from the primary into the general. keeping all that in mind I think a good candidate would keep the race close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one is beating Bob Casey anyways the Rs that thinks Trump is gonna win PA in a Prez yr thought Oz was gonna beat Fetterman with Shapiro lol plse

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Is McCormick really the best the establishment Republicans can do?

If they're dead set on nominating a phony hedge fund executive couldn't they have found one that wasn't a carpetbagger?

The carpetbagger attack hurt Oz last time and I dont see why it wont be at least partially effective this time, and McCormick is easy to paint as an elitist.

Pennsylvania is a huge state, there are tons of Republicans who are immune to both attacks. I get that someone like Fitzpatrick could never win the primary, but why isn't the establishment uniting behind someone better than McCormick?

Yeah, McCormick is literally an even worse candidate than Oz. Imagine running a globalist pro-outsourcing hedge fund manager billionaire in Pennsylvania, one which also will likely piss off the Republican base.
Literally any random dude from the street would be a better candidate.

The only reason he's probably gonna be the nominee is because McConnell is basically in love with him because he's a rich elitist who hates Trump and poor people.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCormick isnt a bad candidate in a 303 map scenario he will lose 51/47 just like Clarke and whomever is nominated by Rs in MI that's a 65/60 M Eday but of course worse in an 80/70 M depends on the Docugate trial and Trump convicted, Trump is an indicted felon just like Jack Ruby was a no convicted felon but after Docugate Trump will be a Conviction felon

That's what I say about PA, MI and WI they are more Republican than IL but they are still D states OH, NC and TX and FL can vote for D Senators as well as MO they have done so in the past

[Continential]

Is McCormick really the best the establishment Republicans can do?

If they're dead set on nominating a phony hedge fund executive couldn't they have found one that wasn't a carpetbagger?

The carpetbagger attack hurt Oz last time and I dont see why it wont be at least partially effective this time, and McCormick is easy to paint as an elitist.

Pennsylvania is a huge state, there are tons of Republicans who are immune to both attacks. I get that someone like Fitzpatrick could never win the primary, but why isn't the establishment uniting behind someone better than McCormick?

Who else is there? I doubt any of the House Rs want to lose their seats for a probable loss, and the State Officers are running for re-election, and so that leaves McCormick.

I dont think the challenger necessarily has to be an office holder. Back in 1994 Mitt Romney temporarily left Bain capital to run against Ted Kennedy, he ended up losing but was able to resume his corporate position. There has to be some born and bred Pennsylvanian Republican executive who could put up a pronounced challenge to Bob Casey from a blank slate. They would probably still lose, but might have a chance depending on the national climate come election day.

Trump and Toomey won Pennsylvania in 2016, and it looks like the republican field is relatively sparse this time around. Oz was certainly hurt in the general by the attack ads directed at him during the primary. If the field stays sparse, and one major contender arises then they wont have to carry over any baggage from the primary into the general. keeping all that in mind I think a good candidate would keep the race close.

Yeah I could see someone unknown in politics as of right now taking the "conservative" lane, but they are unknown as of right now. Also doesn't help that the PA GOP is supporting McCormick who will presumably coalesce the field.

[JMT]

Is McCormick really the best the establishment Republicans can do?

If they're dead set on nominating a phony hedge fund executive couldn't they have found one that wasn't a carpetbagger?

The carpetbagger attack hurt Oz last time and I dont see why it wont be at least partially effective this time, and McCormick is easy to paint as an elitist.

Pennsylvania is a huge state, there are tons of Republicans who are immune to both attacks. I get that someone like Fitzpatrick could never win the primary, but why isn't the establishment uniting behind someone better than McCormick?

Who else is there? I doubt any of the House Rs want to lose their seats for a probable loss, and the State Officers are running for re-election, and so that leaves McCormick.

Agreed. But, I’m a little surprised there wasn’t really an effort to recruit Guy Reschenthaler. That said, if he wanted to run for Senate, he probably would’ve ran in 2022 in an open seat (I’m actually a bit surprised he didn’t). It looks like he’s maybe instead going for House Leadership, now that he’s Deputy Whip.

[wbrocks67]

Every single house GOPer besides Fitzpatrick is way too conservative for the state at large. Guy would've done terrible.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Every single house GOPer besides Fitzpatrick is way too conservative for the state at large. Guy would've done terrible.

I don’t agree. Guy was the only potential candidate that I was really afraid of. He’s young, common-guy-esque, and he can appeal to the crazies without alienating some of the swingier areas in NEPA and central PA. Especially against Fetterman, the winning message (“out of state elitist”) would not have worked against Reschenthaler.

[Roll Roons]

Every single house GOPer besides Fitzpatrick is way too conservative for the state at large. Guy would've done terrible.

I don’t agree. Guy was the only potential candidate that I was really afraid of. He’s young, common-guy-esque, and he can appeal to the crazies without alienating some of the swingier areas in NEPA and central PA. Especially against Fetterman, the winning message (“out of state elitist”) would not have worked against Reschenthaler.

I think Reschenthaler probably would have lost, but it would have been because he was weighed down by Mastriano as opposed to anything being wrong with him as a candidate. I really do think Mastriano being the gubernatorial nominee probably tanked any chances Republicans had of winning this race, even if somebody better than Oz had been the nominee.

[wbrocks67]

Every single house GOPer besides Fitzpatrick is way too conservative for the state at large. Guy would've done terrible.

I don’t agree. Guy was the only potential candidate that I was really afraid of. He’s young, common-guy-esque, and he can appeal to the crazies without alienating some of the swingier areas in NEPA and central PA. Especially against Fetterman, the winning message (“out of state elitist”) would not have worked against Reschenthaler.

Not sure how he could appeal to the swingier areas - he is way too conservative, and aligns himself with the more conservative wing of the party. He's not a nut like Mastriano but he would've tanked just as bad in SEPA and the suburbs.

[wesmoorenerd]

The fact is, there's no Republican candidate who'd be favored to win against Bob Casey. This is jockeying to be, in all likelihood, the loser of the general.

[wbrocks67]

The fact is, there's no Republican candidate who'd be favored to win against Bob Casey. This is jockeying to be, in all likelihood, the loser of the general.

Which I wonder is why McCormick may be taking a bit long to make a decision still. Two losses in a row would be the death knell.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The fact is, there's no Republican candidate who'd be favored to win against Bob Casey. This is jockeying to be, in all likelihood, the loser of the general.

Which I wonder is why McCormick may be taking a bit long to make a decision still. Two losses in a row would be the death knell.

Whom can beat Bob Casey Jr, and Brown and GALLEGO are leading that's 303

Baldwin won by 6/10 pts in WI without Johnson in 2012/18 Rs always underpoll without Johnson and DeWine, McCormick was only beating Fetterman

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Every single house GOPer besides Fitzpatrick is way too conservative for the state at large. Guy would've done terrible.

I don’t agree. Guy was the only potential candidate that I was really afraid of. He’s young, common-guy-esque, and he can appeal to the crazies without alienating some of the swingier areas in NEPA and central PA. Especially against Fetterman, the winning message (“out of state elitist”) would not have worked against Reschenthaler.

Not sure how he could appeal to the swingier areas - he is way too conservative, and aligns himself with the more conservative wing of the party. He's not a nut like Mastriano but he would've tanked just as bad in SEPA and the suburbs.

Saying Guy Reschenthaler would tank JUST as bad as MASTRIANO in SEPA and suburbs in a presidential year is delusional.

[wbrocks67]

Every single house GOPer besides Fitzpatrick is way too conservative for the state at large. Guy would've done terrible.

I don’t agree. Guy was the only potential candidate that I was really afraid of. He’s young, common-guy-esque, and he can appeal to the crazies without alienating some of the swingier areas in NEPA and central PA. Especially against Fetterman, the winning message (“out of state elitist”) would not have worked against Reschenthaler.

Not sure how he could appeal to the swingier areas - he is way too conservative, and aligns himself with the more conservative wing of the party. He's not a nut like Mastriano but he would've tanked just as bad in SEPA and the suburbs.

Saying Guy Reschenthaler would tank JUST as bad as MASTRIANO in SEPA and suburbs in a presidential year is delusional.

I was talking about 2022. Guy wouldn't tank as bad in 2024, but he wouldn't do any better than Trump did in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

David McCormick is a terrible candidate and the only reason the GOP establishment is simping over him is because he's not pro-Trump. Another example of the flawed reasoning of "anti-Trump = good candidate" and "pro-Trump = bad candidate".

[wbrocks67]

The article is pretty damning, especially this:

"He voted in a Pennsylvania election for the first time in 16 years during the 2022 Republican primary, when he was on the ballot, voting records show."

So he literally only voted in PA for the first time in nearly 20 years because he himself was on the ballot, lmao.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Unstoppable Titan Bob Casey will dispatch this clown with ease. He'll be back in Connecticut eating disgusting fake pizza in no time.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

Yet another carpetbagger trying to win a senate seat in PA. Is their statewide bench that small to rely on these wealthy out of touch GOP donor circles candidates from another state?

Likely D -> Likely D.

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

David McCormick is a terrible candidate and the only reason the GOP establishment is simping over him is because he's not pro-Trump. Another example of the flawed reasoning of "anti-Trump = good candidate" and "pro-Trump = bad candidate".

It's probably because he's rich enough where he can achieve parity funding wise if the environment is friendly. A huge part of the GOP's problem in 2022 was that they had to dump so much money into places like Ohio and North Carolina and it detracted from more important races.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

Yet another carpetbagger trying to win a senate seat in PA. Is their statewide bench that small to rely on these wealthy out of touch GOP donor circles candidates from another state?

Likely D -> Likely D.

IMO, yes. All of the sitting GOP congressmen are too far right for the median voter. They all represent (outside of Fitzpatrick) safe GOP districts, so they've never had to moderate. Fitzpatrick meanwhile could not win a primary, and even he is a phony 'moderate' 50% of the time. Meanwhile, their only two statewide GOP officeholders are Garrity and DeFoor. Garrity is batsh*t when you actually take a look at what she has said, while DeFoor is just a complete unknown. IMO both won in 2020 because they were both essentially unknown. DeFoor has not made a name for himself, so I guess you could argue he's generic Republican, but at the same time, it seems equally as likely that some stuff could get dug up on him if anyone even bothered to look into him.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

David McCormick is a terrible candidate and the only reason the GOP establishment is simping over him is because he's not pro-Trump. Another example of the flawed reasoning of "anti-Trump = good candidate" and "pro-Trump = bad candidate".

It's probably because he's rich enough where he can achieve parity funding wise if the environment is friendly. A huge part of the GOP's problem in 2022 was that they had to dump so much money into places like Ohio and North Carolina and it detracted from more important races.

True, but Oz's money didn't help him either. Oz probably could've sunk even more, but he did spent quite a bit of his own fortune on that race.

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

David McCormick is a terrible candidate and the only reason the GOP establishment is simping over him is because he's not pro-Trump. Another example of the flawed reasoning of "anti-Trump = good candidate" and "pro-Trump = bad candidate".

It's probably because he's rich enough where he can achieve parity funding wise if the environment is friendly. A huge part of the GOP's problem in 2022 was that they had to dump so much money into places like Ohio and North Carolina and it detracted from more important races.

True, but Oz's money didn't help him either. Oz probably could've sunk even more, but he did spent quite a bit of his own fortune on that race.

Oz is different since the GOP likely thought they were favored on August 14, 2021. In that case it makes sense to simply run the candidate with the greatest electoral appeal. On August 14, 2023, the GOP knows that they have almost no chance at winning so running a rich guy who can fund enough where the bottom won't fall out might be the best option.