It's amazing for us olds who remember that less than a decade ago, judges forced Fayette County to abolish its at-large county commission system (district-based in terms of candidate residence, but the entire county voted on all commissioner races) and draw 1 (of 4!) districts as a VRA-compatible district for black residents moving in...and now we're apparently on the cusp of this entire county flipping in the next election.
I expected Fayette to move and be winnable by 2024 (see below), but it still shocks me to this day to actually see it. This was largely the single biggest barrier of segregation on the southern metro (pull up a precinct map of the 2012 presidential to see what I mean, where only the most northeastern precincts in the whole county narrowly voted D):
So an (Atlas) red Fayette in 2022? 2024?
I think the more likely of the two would be 2024. Even if favorable realignment trends continue, there's likely to be a dampening effect of some sort in 2022 just because it's a Democratic midterm.
I wouldn't rule out a 2022 win, though. Fayette swung 12.7 points to Biden compared to Clinton (and 6.9 points compared to Abrams). That averages out to a 3.3-point Democratic shift every 2 years: if that rate of movement held (which this is a dubious comparison, admittedly), you could see a 0.2-point win in 2022. Again, this is without any negative effects applying as a result of a Democratic midterm.
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