North Carolina and Republicans' push to the extreme right

[illegaloperation]

As some of you may be aware, Republicans have taken full control of the North Carolina's state government for the first time in 140 years and have been pushing the state hard right. A lot of these Republicans are now locked in thanks to redistricting and Art Pope's money. Not so moderate Governor McCrory has appointed Art Pope, North Carolina's Budget Director.

As a result, there have been these "Moral Monday" protests.

I am wondering how this will affect how North Carolina vote in the future?

If you weren't aware of what's going on in North Carolina: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/07/how-north-carolina-became-the-wisconsin-of-2013/277007/

[illegaloperation]

Its probably good. My family lives in Charlotte; my mom, a Republican, voted for McCrory in 2008 and 2012 and she now regrets it.

A lot of Democrats and moderate Republicans are regretting voting for McCrory.

I hope that he will get thrown out in 2016.

Hopefully, this mobilizes the Democrats that are less incline to vote.

[illegaloperation]

It probably won't change anything.

But I do agree on how far right they've been becoming. I remember not too long ago they tried to push Evangelical Protestantism as the "state religion". That was a bad sign.

All of this while demographic changes are pushing the state to the left.

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina is moving to the political center, trailing Virginia by about 8 years:


North Carolina                    Virginia

2000: R+8                            2000: R+5

2004: R+5                            2004: R+3

2008: R+4                            2008: R+1

2012: R+3                            2012: EVEN


In 2016, North Carolina should be around R+1.5 (round to R+2), while Virginia should be marginally leaning D (maybe D+0.5 or so). However, if these measures offend/irritate moderate, independent voters in the Tarheel state, it MIGHT move forward more - maybe R+1 or so.

Yes, I have been saying for a while now that North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Also, North Carolina Republicans there have managed to alienated a lot of moderates, including moderate Republicans.

[illegaloperation]

sounds tragic, let me get my violin

Oh, it is. What is happening in North Carolina is depressing.

[illegaloperation]

And throw anti-abortion law on top of that too: http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2013/07/north-carolinas-anti-sharia-bill-now-also-anti-abortion/66812/

[illegaloperation]

As some of you may be aware, Republicans have taken full control of the North Carolina's state government for the first time in 140 years and have been pushing the state hard right. A lot of these Republicans are now locked in thanks to redistricting and Art Pope's money. Not so moderate Governor McCrory has appointed Art Pope, North Carolina's Budget Director.

As a result, there have been these "Moral Monday" protests.

I am wondering how this will affect how North Carolina vote in the future?

If you weren't aware of what's going on in North Carolina: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/07/how-north-carolina-became-the-wisconsin-of-2013/277007/

It is interesting how Republicans are being so aggressive in North Carolina compared to a kind of similar situation in a state like Pennsylvania. They don't have a 3/5ths majority in the PA state legislature like they do in NC but they do have a trifecta in PA (a D+1 state) and both states are relatively close to being the deciding state in a presidential election. Then again, Pennsylvania doesn't have any early voting or same-day registration for Republicans to get rid of.

But yeah, this doesn't look like it's going to help Republicans in the state long-term. None of their proposals seem to be that popular from abolishing the state income tax (now they've backtracked to just adopting a flat income tax IIRC), banning Medicaid expansion, all these restrictive voting changes etc.

And the main difference between Virginia and North Carolina is the white vote: both states had electorates that were 70% white in 2012 with Romney winning 68% of whites in North Carolina vs. 61% in Virginia. With the population still growing fast, they'd have to start winning 70%+ of the NC white vote to hold the state in presidential elections. How likely is that, especially with these antics?

I don't know how much better Republicans can perform among whites.

There are a lot of white liberals in the Washington D.C. suburb in Virginia and in the Research Triangle in North Carolina.

[illegaloperation]

The only thing that worries me is whether or not Republicans will aggravate voters in North Carolina to the point it could slip away in a presidential election or force our party to spend more resources there than necessary.

North Carolina is already moving to the left.

What is more interesting is if and by how much faster North Carolina will be moving to the left as a consequence of what the NC GOP is doing.

If the GOP hopes to maintain grip on the state in the future, what is happening now certainly doesn't help.

[illegaloperation]

Good god. There is really no better example of how gerrymandering has screwed over a state than North Carolina. It really says something that the legislature has moved so far to the right that even moderate republicans are getting pissed off.

The worst of these proposals are the voting restrictions. All of them are nothing more than blatant attempts to disenfranchise entire swaths of the state, from minorities to college students, just so they can stay in power. Assholes.

As for McCrory, I'm pretty sure that by now it has become obvious to NC residents that he's just a tool for Art Pope.

In North Carolina, governor has no veto power over redistricting. Even if the Democrat win back the governorship in or before 2020, I am not sure much changes can be expected (at least in the legislature).

I wonder how far the Republican state legislature can lock itself in.

[illegaloperation]

That is assuming the Democrats nominate someone like Obama, the GOP nominates someone like Romney and the political climate and the political coalitions will remain the same the next 20 years. So your statement is based on a lot of assumptions that are uncertain, at best. If 2016 (or 2020) is a bad year for the Democrats, and the GOP nominates a decent candidate, the Republicans will probably win Virginia.

Both Virginia and North Carolina are moving very fast to the left. In the future, Virginia will become a must win state for Democratic presidents. Republican presidents can win Virginia, but they will already have won the election without it. As for North Carolina, it will be the new Ohio. With North Carolina likely to gain electoral votes and Ohio likely to lose some, the importance of North Carolina cannot be overstated.

[illegaloperation]

With NC GOP eliminated the federal unemployment benefit, I wonder how people feel.

I am sure that there are a lot of unemployed Republican voters out there in North Carolina.

[illegaloperation]

[illegaloperation]

Anyway, getting back to the topic about North Carolina.

The growth in North Carolina is driven by growth in the Research Triangle and Charlotte and this is pushing the state to the left.

I would think that the NC GOP would drift to the left to keep winning. Instead, it is pushing hard right.

[illegaloperation]

The only thing that worries me is whether or not Republicans will aggravate voters in North Carolina to the point it could slip away in a presidential election or force our party to spend more resources there than necessary.

North Carolina is already moving to the left.

What is more interesting is if and by how much faster North Carolina will be moving to the left as a consequence of what the NC GOP is doing.

If the GOP hopes to maintain grip on the state in the future, what is happening now certainly doesn't help.

It's not as bad as Democrats think it is or want it to be though. It never is. Human nature makes us biased. Obama being black helped him enormously in North Carolina which makes its trends deceiving. By 2020 we should be able to tell how much he helped the trend or how much he skewed the trend. Right now we're only wishfully thinking. Trends don't go on forever. It's not  like the state will ever actually belong to the Democrats.

Really? I don't think a lot of Republicans who are unemployed and sees their benefits cut feel the same way.

North Carolina has the 5th highest unemployment rate and trust me, it's not because people there just don't want jobs.

Also, I know that North Carolina is moving to the left because Charlotte and the Research Triangle are the fastest growing areas just like I know that Missouri is moving to the right because Southwestern Missouri is the fast growing area there.

So unless Republicans can start winning urban and secular voters, North Carolina is moving to the left.

Additional note: stealing the water system and regional airport from Asheville and stealing the international airport from Charlotte can already mobilize a lot of voters.

[illegaloperation]

I don't know about the airports. People who are unemployed vote against the party in the white house. They don't just blame Republicans like the parties blame each other.

North Carolina is a manufacturing-heavy state that is more sensitive to economic swings and that such traditional industries as textiles, tobacco and furniture have been devastated by foreign competition. This is why the unemployment rate is so high.

I do agree that the people of North Carolina did voted against the president's party for the reason you have just stated.

What is happening now, though, is that once the NC GOP has taken over, it has push a lot of extremely unpopular measures (the prime example is to cut unemployment benefit). This is what will cause the people to swing the other way (to the NC Democrat).

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[illegaloperation]

It's possible, but it will probably depend on what the map looks like. For the Democrats to win NC they'd have to win the election even under these circumstances. It may not be overly conservative though if the Republicans win. Having an unpopular state government will hurt Republicans in 2014 most likely but by 2016 things could be different.

McCrory is going to be on the ballot in 2016 (assuming that he runs for reelection). I am sure there are going to be plenty of people who are itching to throw him out.

The are going to be a lot of people who split ticket (vote for Democratic gubernatorial candidate and Republican presidential candidate), but I also suspect that a lot of people who felt burn may vote against both McCrory and the Republican presidential candidate.

[illegaloperation]

I don't follow NC politics, but I'd think it would have to be really bad for that to happen. Usually it's the Presidential Election that effects the candidates from the respective parties. Assuming the Republicans win the White House after 8 years of the other party, the GOP candidates will likely be helped as well. We'll have to wait and see though. It should be interesting to see what happens in NC and other battleground states like FL, OH, PA, CO, and NV after the 2014 midterm elections. I know NC votes in presidential years.

There is a protest every Monday in Raleigh. 3000+ people (by conservative estimate) attended the last protest, so yes, it is really that bad.

Also, you can never assume that "Republicans win the White House after 8 years of the other party".

[illegaloperation]

Anyway, let us get back on topic.

The NC Republicans are just social conservatives. There is nothing small government about them.

This is what I mean:

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/04/20/2839185/christensen-column-big-government.html

[illegaloperation]

I am not sure that changes anything, but I know one person in NC who is a staunch conservative.

He said that he is going to vote for Democrats in the next election.

[illegaloperation]

Lower taxes, smaller government, and more economic freedom =/= "the extreme right".

There's nothing small government about the NC Republicans. They are just social conservatives.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/04/20/2839185/christensen-column-big-government.html

[illegaloperation]

While Democrats want big government on the economy, Republicans want a bigger government on social issues.

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Are you sure? Did you check out the whole article?

These Republicans want "big government on the economy" too.

[illegaloperation]

While Democrats want big government on the economy, Republicans want a bigger government on social issues.

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Are you sure? Did you check out the whole article?

These Republicans want "big government on the economy" too.

I was referring to cheesepizza's quote.

So if you are a resident of North Carolina, would you vote for these Republicans?

[illegaloperation]

Yes I'd vote for them as long as they were the better alternative to the Democrats.

Are you saying that you would vote for Republicans as long as they have (R)s after their name?

[illegaloperation]

Yes I'd vote for them as long as they were the better alternative to the Democrats.

Are you saying that you would vote for Republicans as long as they have (R)s after their name?

No I said I'd vote for the Republicans if they were better alternatives to the Democrats.

on social issues or on economic issues?

[illegaloperation]

NYTimes editorial board wrote an article on North Carolina: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/10/opinion/the-decline-of-north-carolina.html?_r=0