2017 British Columbia election

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Starting to look over some more numerical tidbits.

1.This isn't completely accurate, because a few ridings had their election night totals adjusted (I never adjusted my preliminary vote totals), but it's obviously fairly close:

Absentee vote totals: 174,559
NDP:      78,033, 44.7%
Liberal:   61,568, 35.3
Green:    31,109, 17.8
Other:      3,849

2.Number of ridings in which the winning candidate received over 50% of the vote: 48/87

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Northern Vancouver Island and the Coast isn't that different from the Interior.  Both the NDP and the B.C  Liberals should figure out why they can win in one area but not the other.

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How does 44/43 last 4 years?

It won't.

Saskatchewan NDP made 30-28 last for four years.

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Predicted Cabinet
1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, John Horgan
2.Finance, Bruce Ralston
3.Economic Development and Trade, Shane Simpson
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Scott Fraser
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship/Government House Leader, Mike Farnworth
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Katrine Conroy
7.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Adrian Dix
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Lana Popham
9.Environment/North, Doug Donaldson
10.Transportation and Infrastructure/Rural Affairs, Michelle Mugall
11.Citizen Services, Innovation and Technology, Doug Routley
12.Human Resources and Housing, Harry Bains
13.Children and Family Development, Melanie Mark
14.Education/Deputy Premier, Carole James
15.Advanced Education and Training, Jennifer Rice
16.Health, Judy Darcy
17.Municipal Affairs/Translink/Status of Women, Selina Robinson
18.Aboriginal Relations, Len Krog
19.Justice and Public Safety, David Eby

Deputy Speaker, Raj Chouhan (If Linda Reid remains speaker)
Chief Government Whip, Rob Fleming
Caucus Chair, Mable Elmore


Horgan also promised some new ministries, I think one way to keep everybody happy would be to make every remaining NDP MLA either an Associate Minister or a Parliamentary Secretary.

1.Finance, Ravi Kahlon
2.International Trade, Jagrup Brar
3. Economic Development and Small Business, Bob D'Eith
4.Tourism and Culture, Nicholas Simons
5.Immigration and Citizenship, Katrina Chen
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Claire Trevena
7.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Ronna Rae Leonard
8.Energy and Climate Change, Spencer Chandra Herbert
9.Transportation and Infrastructure, Bowinn Ma
10.Innovation and Technology, Rick Glumac
11.Housing, George Chow
12.Children and Family Development, Mitzi Dean
13.Education, Anne Kang
14.Training and Apprenticeship, George Heyman
15.Mental Health and Addictions, Rachna Singh
16.Seniors, Jinny Sims
17.Status of Women, Janet Routledge
18.Aboriginal Relations, Lisa Beare
19.Public Safety, Garry Begg

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How does 44/43 last 4 years?

More likely to be 44/42, as Speaker doesn't vote.

So the assumption is that the Speaker comes from the LIBs ?

The assumption is than the incumbent will be relected (despite being described as sub-par by NDP in the past).

Could the Speaker refuse to seek reelection? Presumably in that case it would be 43/43.

Yes.

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If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?

Not as high as you would think. They will probably end up going with a referendum (doing it unilaterally through the legislature may prove too unpopular with the public) which will either be held at the same time as the next election or if held before, will probably fail. Of course, if its held on its own, there is a better chance of it passing (look at the PEI referendum), as most people who end up voting against electoral reform don't care enough to come out to vote in an off-year election. The big caveat would be that an off-year referendum may end up also being a "referendum" on the NDP-Green government, which could very well be unpopular at the time.

The earliest opportunity would be the municipal elections held in November of 2018.  Assuming, of course, that Trump has caused global thermal nuclear war by then.

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What's the interest of having an odd number of members of an assembly if you're gonna discard one of them completely for majority vote purposes ? It always seemed quite odd to me (pun intended).

This whole convention is so f'ing stupid, and this whole 'crisis' is exposing it for what it is. Why the hell do we have this antiquated 19th century stupid convention in the first place?

Yes, unlimited fundraising creating conflicts of interest, shrug.  But, DON'T YOU DARE TURN THE SPEAKER INTO A PARTISAN POSITION!  

I'm sure the right wing OUTRAGE! machine will make this out to be the biggest scandal of all time, but  unlike they and the political scientists all rapped up in their concerns about historical conventions, I think most fair minded people will see a difference between a 'partisan' Speaker voting to break ties in favor of their government, and a partisan Speaker making partisan legislative rulings in favor of their government.

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what is the point of picking a cabinet that will serve for 2 weeks?

To promote the illusion of continuity and the idea that because the Liberals won the most seats and have the first right to form the government that they are the only legitimate government - much as Stephen Harper falsely claimed.

I don't have a problem with Christy Clark wanting the Liberals government to fall on a confidence motion rather than just resign, but clearly there is reason to be concerned that she's taking so long dealing with this to try and get Site C past the 'point of no return.'

The Liberals say 'it takes time to appoint a new cabinet...' but there is no requirement for a cabinet minister to be an MLA so she could have just reappointed all the current ministers and go to the throne speech and the confidence vote.

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There are several reports that Ellis Ross is the first aboriginal with a cabinet portfolio (Frank Calder was a Minister Without Portfolio for a couple years in the Dave Barrett government.)

I believe Ellis Ross is the first elected aboriginal with a cabinet portfolio as Ed John was an unelected minister in the Ujjal Dosanjh government.

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Hmm. Though Spector said he thinks deal will hold for a while so long as SOs are changed.

Gary Mason is usually fair, but there seems to be no question that the media that enables the B.C Liberals (Vancouver Sun, CKNW) is revving up the notion of how important this convention of the 'non partisan Speaker.'

Odd how neither of those outlets thought it was important when the hyper partisan Liberal Linda Reid made a number of clearly partisan rulings in favor of the B.C Liberals.

This isn't a case of 'both sides do it.'  

Weaver brought up the convention that a Speaker can't resign mid term and received a reply that 'many speakers have stepped down recently.' So, if there are precedents that show a convention hasn't been followed and, therefore, the convention no longer applies, then their is similarly no basis to now argue that the convention on the 'non partisan Speaker' must now be followed.

Either conventions are followed or they're not, and either precedents matter or they don't.  The B.C Liberals and their media enablers can't have it both ways.

Also, according to Dave Schreck, The Lieutenant Governor's (Judith Guichon) business (a farm) made donations to the B.C Liberals in 2005 and 2009, so the Lieutenant Governor would be walking on very thin ice to decide to not allow the NDP/Green coalition a chance to govern on the basis of a convention that hasn't been followed.

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My comment on CKNW was not entirely fair.  Every show host there seems to be independent but politically they go from the center (Simi Sara, Drex) to the far right (Charles Addled, Jill Bennett) with John McComb and Linda Steele essentially center right.

The main thing is though that the stock in trade with all of them except for Simi Sara is OUTRAGE! This is true of all of them, but the worst in probably the person who discusses the news with Simi Sara (and maybe with John McComb as well) Gord MacDonald.

I've tweeted to a couple of them (no reply, of course) "If you're so holier than thou, what are you doing working for a radio station that employs the anti homeless person bigot (and generally misinformed) Bruce Allen?  You want to send a message that your OUTRAGE! is sincere, quit your job. Make the hard decision and the sacrifice that you're constantly calling for others to do (especially politicians.) "

Bruce Allen had one of his editorials reported to the Broadcast Standards Council. Although he was cleared, you be the judge if this is morally acceptable comment:  

"...This is sick. What’s the down side if
these people don’t get their fix? They die? Yeah, so? Are we losing big
contributors here? They get the wrong smack and overdose? Same result, too
bad."

http://www.cbsc.ca/decisions/20-0506/20-0506-0651_PD_E.pdf

CKNW stood by Bruce Allen as well they claimed in the interest of 'free speech' but anybody with a brain knows the reason they hired such a POS is because he's controversial and controversy sadly gets ratings.

So, just remember that if you hear a sanctimonious talk show host on CKNW say how the Speaker voting to break ties would be an OUTRAGEOUS! situation.

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Mason: difficult to imagine Guichon ignoring Clark's advice.

We must have read a different article: "The eyes of the province, and country, now turn on Ms. Guichon. If she doesn’t give the NDP a chance to govern with a one-seat majority, something that has managed to work elsewhere in Canada for as many as three years, she will face enormous criticism.

She will be seen as coming down on the side of a government that wants an election, rather than relinquish power. The stakes couldn’t be any higher."

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Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

B.C Liberal Speaker Linda Reid was very partisan.  She just didn't vote in favor of government legislation.

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By accident I deleted my longer post.

Cabinet Prediction
1.Premier/Federal Provincial Relations, John Horgan
2.Finance, Bruce Ralston
3.Economic Development and Trade, Shane Simpson
4.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship/Government House Leader, Mike Farnworth
5.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Nicholas Simons
6.Natural Resources and Forestry/Rural Affairs, Katrine Conroy
7.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Lana Popham
8.Energy, Mines and Petroleum, Resources, Adrian Dix
9.Environment/Northern Affairs, Doug Donaldson
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Michelle Mungall
11.Government Services, Innovation and Technology, Doug Routley
12.Human Resources and Housing, Harry Bains
13.Children and Family Development, Melanie Mark
14.Education/Deputy Premier, Carole James
15.Advanced Education and Training, Jennifer Rice
16.Health, Judy Darcy
17.Municipal Affairs/Translink, Selina Robinson
18.Aboriginal Relations, Len Krog
19.Justice and Public Safety, David Eby

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After Christy Clark's stunt with the throne speech, I could imagine one or two Liberal M.L.As who act in some way to make it clear that they won't guarantee their support for the B.C Liberals until she steps down as leader.

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From the article this weekend from Vaughn Palmer, there are eight or nine standing legislative committees and I noticed I missed a couple positions that the NDP could place a minister of state in, so scrap the Parliamentary Secretaries.

Ministers of State
1.International Trade, Jagrup Brar
2.Immigration and Citizenship, Katrina Chen
3.Energy and Climate Change, Spencer Chandra Herbert
4.Technology, Bowinn Ma
5.Housing, George Chow
6.Apprenticeships and Training, George Heyman
7.Mental Health and Addictions, Rachna Singh
8.Seniors, Jinny Sims
9.Status of Women, Janet Routledge
10.Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness, Garry Begg
11.Child Care, Mitzi Dean
12.Electoral Reform, Claire Trevena

Legislative Standing Committee Chairs
1.Finance and Government Services, Ravi Kahlon
2.Crown Corporations, Bob D'Eith
3.Health, Ronna Rae Leonard
4.Legislative Initiatives, Rick Glumac
5.Education, Anne Kang
6.Aboriginal Affairs, Lisa Beare

The three other standing committees are:
1.Public Accounts, which is always chaired by a member of the official opposition
2.Parliamtentary Reform, Ethical Conduct, Standing Orders and Private Bills, makes sense to me anyway for a Green to chair this
3.Children and Youth, maybe this can be combined with Education or something

Oddly enough, there isn't a single standing committee for resources or the environment.

Caucus/Legislative Officers
1.Speaker, Raj Chouhan
2.Assistant Deputy Speaker (or Deputy Speaker), Rob Fleming
3.Chief Government Whip, Scott Fraser (already appointed)
4.Caucus Chair, Mable Elmore

If there is another Speaker position needed and another New Democrat needed to be chair of a legislative committee, remove a couple Ministers of State, though I'm not sure which ones, I like them all.

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Clark is not only quitting as leader of the BC Liberal Party, she is also resigning her seat in the legislature effective August 4. Since Horgan has six months to call a byelection that means the NDP/Greens will have a clear majority with no need for a tie-breaking vote by the speaker during the entire fall session and up to March of 2018.

Where is "Lotuslander" these days? I usually rely on his posts about BC politics to know what will NOT happen next.

The NDP have never won this seat, so this is a good thing. Had this been a winnable seat, we could see a by-election before that (ONLY if it was really winnable)
but question, since the NDP HAS no history here, this is not favourable territory, could they not run a candidate in favour of a Green? (posted in the other CDN by-election thread too)

The CCF though held the Kelowna area federally from 1948-1957 under Owen Jones, a furniture store owner and mayor of Kelowna throughout the 1930s.

http://www.kelownacapnews.com/opinion/letter-kelowna-voters-supported-ccf-precursor-to-ndp/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owen_Jones_(politician)

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So who are the likely candidates to replace Clark as leader?

The first name being mentioned is Dianne Watts, the former Surrey mayor and presently Conservative M.P for Surrey-White Rock.

Watts was a very popular mayor but her popularity dropped somewhat from her leaving as mayor to running for M.P due to a wave of gang shootings and other crime problems in Surrey that caused a re-evaluation of her tenure as mayor, and she won her election to Parliament by a narrow margin (I think 1,600 votes.)

If she doesn't run, I think most of the attention would turn first to those who ran against Christy Clark in 2011: Kevin Falcon and George Abbott.  Abbott has said he's done with politics and is no longer a member of the B.C Liberals (I believe I read he was also once a New Democrat) but Kevin Falcon came forward to criticize Clark for her stolen throne speech stunt.

Other than them, I would look at Mike Bernier the former Education Minister who is regarded as somebody who can bring people together.  I think his firing of the Vancouver School Board would also large help him in his run for leader.  He can portray himself as a consensus builder who also has a spine.

I would think John Rustad who received very positive grades for his handling of the B.C forest fires as the person who was named the Forests and Natural Resource Operations minister for the brief time after the Liberal election loss would also be a strong candidate.

An outsider I'd like to see but has given no indication is James Moore, the former Conservative M.P and Industry Minister who was regarded as a 'Red Tory.'

From the 'who asked you to run?' list, those who are considered to want to run but not likely to garner a lot of support are the extremely book smart but hopelessly tin eared Andrew Wilkinson and the former mayor of Vancouver Sam Sullivan.  I think there may have been one or two other Liberal M.L.As who have been mentioned as wanting to run but not likely to garner a lot of support (unless, of course, nobody who would be the frontrunners decides to run.)

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The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

Weaver was just interviewed on CKNW and when he was asked about the idea of discussing running a single candidate with the NDP he said "we are an opposition party and will run a candidate."  I think the concept that he might ask the NDP to not run a candidate never even occurred to him.

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The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

From the CBC website:
After Christy Clark announced she would be stepping down as leader of the B.C. Liberal Party, the first public comments from her fellow MLAs came from Rich Coleman, B.C.'s long-time deputy premier.   

"I want to talk about Christy for a second," he said, voice choking up, outside the building where the Liberals were holding a caucus retreat.

"I've never worked with anybody with more passion and love, strength of leadership and management in my entire life than Christy Clark.

"What she's given to this province should never be forgiven," said Coleman, before realizing his mistake.

"Forgotten."

To misquote former B.C Liberal Leader Gordon Wilson "This is a classic example...of a Freudian slip."