2017 British Columbia election

[136or142]

I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.

The article on CBC http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/chak-au-attack-ads-1.4061606 is saying the opposite, that Au is being targted as SUPPORTING "...for drug injection sites, gender neutral bathrooms, encourages sex education for young children and supports same sex marriage."

I also Follow Spencer Herbert Chandra and he posted about this...
"Had a great meeting this morning to discuss our common fight against racist stereotypes, homophobic, and transphobic discrimination with Chak Au who is running to be an MLA in Richmond, and Morgane Oger who is running in Vancouver False Creek. On May 9 we can elect a government that truly values our province's diversity, and actively supports all of our right to be who we are free of hate and discrimination."
In a reply to someone who asked about Au's positions "...I was referring to the attack ads running saying the NDP had ruined the east side because we support LGBT people which made false claims about him, which is where the story originated. I met him today and was comfortable with what he told me. But then everyone has to judge for themselves, and I don't speak Cantonese so I can't speak to what you saw, only what he and I discussed this morning. Thanks for your comments and support! I'm focussd on serving the people of the West End and Coal Harbour as you know. I reached out to him to see if there was truth to the online comments."
"He was very clear to me that he supports same sex marriage, adoption, and trans human rights to name a few areas we agree on. I believe he is doing media on this soon which hopefully helps clear the air on this."
... we will see.

Sounds more and more like Lotuslander deliberately posted 'fake news' here.

[136or142]

I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.

Sigh. You have repeatedly boasted that you have put me on your ignore list. All disingenuous. As usual.  You are nothing more than a loony conspiracy theorist. Now buzz off troll.

I've told you before that, while I have you on ignore, I check any posts of yours that you make right after I post to see if you commented on anything I wrote.  Obviously I'm not going to give you a free license to lie about what I post.  You are a lying troll, and if you don't want to deal with me here, you should just leave.  While I like to only speak for myself, I don't think anybody here would miss you.

As to what Chak Au said, he seemed to be deliberately vague in what he said to the Chinese media, but he also never said that he agreed with any socially conservative positions.

[136or142]

Southern and Central Interior
1.Boundary-Similkameen, Colleen Ross,55, Organic Farmer, Boundary Region Agriculture Society Project Coordinator, Former Vice President National Farmers Union,  B.A - Agriculture Business Management, Grand Forks City Councillor 2014-, Kayaker

2.Columbia River-Revelstoke, Gerry Taft,35, Owner Gerry's Gelati Cafe and Stolen Church Coffee Company, Diploma - Hotel, Motel and Restaurant Management, Invermere City Councillor 2002-2008, Invermere Mayor 2008-

3.Fraser-Nicola, Harry Lali,61, Small Environmental Technology Import/Export Company Partner, Former Adult Employment Counsellor and Sporting Goods Store Co-Owner, B.A - History and South Asia Area Studies, Merritt City Councillor 1987-1990, M.L.A 1991-2001, 2005-2013

4.Kamloops-North Thompson, Barb Nederpel, Royal Inland Hospital Clerk/Care Aide, Hospital Employees Union First Vice President, President, Kamloops and District Labor Council (As Bob Mackin pointed out, the first syllables in her last name are N D P)

5.Kamloops-South Thompson, Nancy Bepple, Thompson Rivers University Career/Education STEM Co-op Coordinator, B.Sc-Mathematics and Computer Science, MSc-Atmospheric Science, PhD-Education Policy and Leadership, Thesis: International Students Strategies To Obtain Career-Related Work In Canada After Graduation, Kamloops City Councillor 2008-2014, Banjo Player

6.Kelowna East, Shelley Cook, Former Executive Director John Howard Society of Central and South Okanagan, Former Correctional Services of Canada Program Facilitator, B.A (Hons) - Psychology, M.A-Human and Social Development, PhD Candidate - Community, Culture and Global Studies

7.Kelowna-Lake Country,Erik Olesen,26, Former WallMart Assistant Manager, Former White Spot Restaurant Manager, Pre Nursing Diploma, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology Diploma, Power Equipment Certificate, Lives in Vernon

8.Kelowna-Mission, Harwinder Sandhu, Surgical Nurse and Vernon Jubilee Hospital Union Steward, Lives in Vernon

9.Kootenay East, Randal Macnair, Publishing Firm Owner (Oolichan Books), Treasurer Association of Book Publishers of British Columbia, Former Museum Curator, Previously worked in forestry, fishing and construction,  Fernie City Councillor 1999-2002, 2008-2014, Fernie Mayor 2002-2008, B.A -, 2013 Candidate for Nomination

10.Kootenay West, Katrine Conroy, Executive Director Kootenay Family Place, Former Early Childhood Educator, Cattle Rancher, Former College Instructor, Former Power Engineer, M.L.A 2005-

11.Nelson-Creston, Michelle Mungall,38, Nelson Food Cupboard (Food Bank) Manager,  B.A (Hons) - Political Science, M.A - Nelson City Councillor 2002-2005, M.L.A 2009-, Skiier and Hiker

12.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed,38, Owner Basanti Interactive Media, B-Management Information Systems,  M.B.A, LEAN Green Belt Certification - Process Improvement, Process Management Certificate, Executive Certificate - Organizational Leadership, Penticton City Councillor 2014-

13.Shuswap, Sylvia Lindgren, School Education Assistant, CUPE Local President, Former Private Senior's Care Home Owner (Carlin Cottage), B-Physical Education and Special Education

14.Vernon-Monashee, Barry Dorval, High School English Teacher, Former President Vernon Teacher's Association, Hiker, Cycling and Squash Player

[136or142]

North
1.Cariboo North, Scott Elliott, Liquor Store Clerk and Store Shop Steward, Former Owner Trout Tales Fly Fishing Adventures, Quesnel City Councillor 2011-

2.Cariboo-Chilcotin, Sally Watson,62, Rural Mail Carrier, Former Lumber Grader, Former Tire Store Owner, Thompson-Nicola Regional District Director 2002-

3.Nechako Lakes, Anne Marie Sam, School District 51 Trustee 2011-2014, Nak’azdli Whut’en Band Councillor 2014-, B.Sc- M.ASc candidate (Applied Science) -  Mining Engeering

4.North Coast, Jennifer Rice, T. Buck Suzuki Environmental Foundation Energy Campaigner, Self Employed Biological Technician, former Environmental Science Journalist, Former SCUBA Instructor, Diploma-Applied Coastal Ecology, Certificate - Not for Profit Management,   Prince Rupert City Councillor 2011-2013, M.L.A 2013-, SCUBA Diver and Kayaker

5.Peace River North, Robert Dempsey, High School Social Studies and Law Teacher, Union Local Activist, Former Corrections Officer, Former Armed Forces Reserves Officer, B.A -

6.Peace River South, Stephanie (Watson) Goudie, Dawson Creek Aquatic Center Front Desk Clerk, Dawson Creek Literary Society Project Lead, CUPE Local Vice President, Studied Social Sciences

7.Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Nicholas Simons,52, Sechelt Nation Director of Health and Social Development, Former Child Protection Social Worker, Former Criminology Instructor, Former President Sunshine Coast Arts Council B.A - Criminology, M.A - Criminology, Professional Cello Player, M.L.A 2005-

8.Prince George-Mackenzie, Bobby Deepak, Labor Lawyer and Firm Owner (North Labour Law Corporation), Law and Criminology Instructor, B.A (Hons) - Criminology, J.D, 2013 Nominee

9.Prince George-Valemount, Natalie Fletcher, Hospital Sterile Processing Technician, Hospital Employees Union Representative, Vice President North Central Labour Council

10.Skeena, Bruce Bidgood, Social Work Professor, B.A - M -Social Work, PhD - Applied Social Welfare Research and Social Policy,  Former Terrace City Councillor 2008-2014, 2014 Terrace Mayor Candidate

11.Stikine, Doug Donaldson,60 Executive Director Storyteller's Foundation (North West Economic Development Non Profit Organization), Former Journalism Instructor, Former Forestry Consulting Firm Biologist, Former Tourism Business Owner/Operator, Director Bulkley Valley Credit Union,  B.Sc - Biology, M.A - Journalism, Hiker, Hazelton City Councillor 1999-2009, M.L.A 2009-

[136or142]

Vancouver Island
Southern Vancouver Island
1.Esquimalt-Metchosin, Mitzi Dean, Executive Director Pacific Centre Family Services Association,  Former Child Protection Social Worker (in England), M - Philosophy (research) Certificate - Executive Coaching

2.Langford-Juan de Fuca, John Horgan,57, Management Consulting Firm Principal (IdeaWorks), Premier Dan Miller Chief of Staff, Former Assistant Deputy Minister,  B.A - History, M.A - History, M.L.A 2005-

3.Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Bryce Casavant,33, B.C Ministry of Forests Natural Resource Officer Former B.C Conservation Officer (resigned),  Canadian Armed Forces Veteran, B.Sc-

4.Saanich North and the Islands, Gary Holman,68, Self Employed Resource Economics Consultant, M.A - Economics Capital Region District Director 2002-2008, M.L.A 2013-

5.Saanich South, Lana Popham,48, Organic Farmer (Barking Dog Vineyard), B.A - Geography, M.A - Urban Planning, M.L.A 2009-

6.Victoria-Beacon Hill, Carole James,59,  Carrier Sekani Family Services Director of Child and Family Services, Former B.C Government Director of Child Care Policy, former Social Worker, Greater Victoria School Trustee 1990-2001, M.L.A 2005-

7.Victoria-Swan Lake, Rob Fleming,45, Communications Consulting Firm Consultant, Former Ministry of Advanced Education Research and Policy Analyst, B.A - History, Victoria City Councillor 1999-2005, M.L.A 2005-

Central and Northern Vancouver Island
1.Courtney-Comox, Ronna-Rae Leonard,60, Environmental Consultant, Former Environmental Non Profit Project Manager and Researcher, Diploma(?) - Legal Assistant, Courtney City Councillor 2005-2014, 2011 Federal NDP Nominee, 2015 Federal NDP candidate for nomination

2.Cowichan Valley, Lori Iannidinardo, House of Friendship Society Cowichan Community Kitchens Coordinator, Cowichan Valley Regional District Director 2008-

3.Mid Island-Pacific Rim, Scott Fraser,59, Tofino Harbor Authority Assistant Manager, Bed and Breakfast Owner, 2004 Federal NDP Nominee Tofino Mayor 1996-1999, M.L.A 2005-

4.Nanaimo, Len Krog,63, Lawyer and Firm Owner, President Mid-Island Consumer Co-op,  B.A - History, LLB, M.L.A 1991-1996 (for Parksville-Qualicum), 2005-

5.Nanaimo-North Cowichan, Doug Routley, 55, Former School Custodian and Union Local Representative, Former Specialty Bike Shop and Wholesale Dealership Chain Owner B.A -  Cowichan Valley School Trustee 2003-2005, M.L.A 2005-

6.North Island, Claire Trevena,54, Self Employed Communications Consultant (Start Communicating Strategies),  Former Strategic Communications Firm Managing Director, Former CBC Newsworld International Senior Editor, Former United Nations Public Information Officer, B.A(Hons)-American Studies

7.Parksville-Qualicum, Sue Powell, Child Protection Social Worker, Former  First Vice President B.C Government Social, Information and Health Services Component, Parksville City Councillor 2004-

[136or142]

If the NDP win the election, given the close nature of B.C elections, I predict they'll win around 50 seats.

This is based on them holding every riding they have now (which is not certain) and gaining 15 seats from the Liberals, I predict these ridings (and the NDP candidates) are:

1.Vancouver-Fraserview, George Chow
2.Burnaby North, Janet Routledge
3.Delta North, Ravi Kahlon
4.North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Bowinn Ma
5.Surrey-Fleetwood, Jagrup Brar
6.Surrey-Guildford, Garry Begg
7.Surrey-Panorama, Jinny Sims
8.Maple Ridge-Mission, Bob D'Eith
9.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Lisa Beare
10.Boundary-Similkameen, Coleen Ross
11.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed
12.Fraser-Nicola, Harry Lali
13.Cariboo-Chilcotin, Sally Watson
14.Cariboo North, Scott Elliott
15.Courtney-Comox, Ronna-Rae Leonard

Predicted NDP cabinet  (Remember, "This is only an exhibition, this is not a competition, no wagering") David Letterman (at a time when he was funny)
1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, John Horgan
2.Finance, Bruce Ralston
3.Economics Development and Trade, Shane Simpson
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Sally Watson
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship/Government House Leader, Mike Farnworth
6.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Adrian Dix
7.Natural Resources and Forestry/Rural Affairs, Katrine Conroy
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Lana Popham
9.Environment/Northern Affairs, Doug Donaldson
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Michelle Mungall
11.Technology, Innovation and Citizen Services, Tarik Sayeed
12.Human Resources and Housing, Harry Bains
13.Children and Family Development, Melanie Mark
14.Education/Deputy Premier, Carole James
15.Advanced Education and Training, Jennifer Rice
16.Health/Seniors, Judy Darcy
17.Municipal Affairs/Status of Women, Selina Robinson
18.Aboriginal Relations, Len Krog
19.Justice and Public Safety, David Eby

Speaker, Raj Chouhan
Deputy Speaker, Claire Trevena

Chief Government Whip, Rob Fleming
Caucus Chair, Mable Elmore

[136or142]

I think the NDP is more likely to win Kamloops North than either of the Cariboo seats

Kamloops seems to be steadily trending away from the NDP and from being the swing riding that always goes with the winner.

[136or142]

Mainstreet Research has a pretty good track record (unlike, say, Forum) but I find the sub-samples a bit hard to believe.  

For the NDP to be up over the Liberals 41-27% in Greater Vancouver (this does not include the 20% they find undecided) makes no sense to me given the unpopularity of the NDP in such places as the Eastern Fraser Valley (though the NDP is a little more popular in Chilliwack), Richmond and most of the North Shore.

As far as I'm concerned, for that to be accurate, the NDP would have to be up by 20% or so in Burnaby.

Apparently, the Mainstreet polling analysts predicted a minority NDP government on the basis of this poll, with NDP gains in Greater Vancouver offset by losses on Vancouver Island.  However, this poll also shows a tie in 'rest of province' (i.e The Interior) which if that was the case suggests the NDP could very well win such ridings as the two Kamloops ridings and Kootenay East.

If the NDP does win by 10%, I find it hard to believe they wouldn't win a majority government.

As I wrote a while back, this election was looking more and more to me like the situation in 1972, where after losing an election they were expected to win in 1969, nobody ever thought the NDP could ever win an election in British Columbia and this made those afraid of the 'socialist hordes' complacent in 1972.

So, although there is polling for this election, given what happened with the polling in 2013, the 'Anti NDP' coalition also appears to have gotten somewhat complacent this time around (I realize the advertising from the 'concerned groups' and the amount of donations to the B.C Liberals don't suggest that, but on the other hand, the Liberals themselves have once again put Christy Clark at the forefront of their campaign and are basically running the a repeat of 2013, even though Premier Clark is now one of the most unpopular political leaders in Canada.)

[136or142]

Yeah, if the NDP wins the popular vote by 10 points, i would say that an NDP majority is guaranteed and likely a super-majority. In 1972 the NDP won the popular vote 39% to 29% and in seats they took 38 to 10 for the Socreds. In 1991 the NDP took 41% and the BC Liberals 33%...in seats that translated into NDP 55 and Libs 17!

As for those numbers for the Lower Mainland, i would like to know what the geographical definition of Greater vancouver is? Would Fraser Valley places like Chilliwack and Abbotsford even be considered Greater Vancouver or would they be lumped into the Interior?

One thing to keep in mind is how some of these places rapidly changing. Not too long ago Abbotsford was considered Bible Belt and ultra conservative...but in recent years it has been bursting at the seems with young lower middle class families fleeing the high cost of housing in Vancouver...and parts oif Abbotsford are getting to be as heavily South Asian as parts of Surrey. it might not happen this election but I would be surprised if the NDP starts to become competitive in one of those seats soon.

I'm pretty sure their dividing line is Hope.  The Mainstreet Research site doesn't say so, but that is usually the geographic division.  If the NDP is tied with the Liberals in 'rest of province' and the rest of the province includes Chilliwack and Abbotsford, it's almost certain the NDP would win ridings in Kamloops, East Kootenay, The Cariboo and even Prince George. (Along with Penticton, Boundary-Similkameen and Fraser-Nicola)

[136or142]

I notice something interesting in the crosstabs of the Ipsos poll - they asked people who they voted for in the 2013 election:

54% say they voted Liberal (Libs actually took 44% in 2013)
37% say they voted NDP (NDP actually took 40% in 2013)
8% say they voted Green (same as 2013)
no numbers on reported past vote for BC Conservatives/Other.

So contrary to the theory that this online panel might over-represent New Democrats - if we look at reported past vote - the sample is actually wayyy more Liberal than it ought to be. I'm not questioning the overall findings, just pointing this out for people to interpret as they wish

This could be nothing more than the well known psychological factor that many people can't remember how they voted in the previous election, and so say they voted for the winning party.

It's related to but not quite the same to the polling during the 1980s showing up to 20 million people claimed to be one of the 600,000 or so who attended Woodstock.

[136or142]

Whether good news or bad news, Forum Polls are always junk polls.  Best to ignore them.

[136or142]

Is the NDP here doing the most NDP thing ever by squandering their healthy lead as the election approaches?

The B.C NDP likely never had a healthy lead.  Just one outlier poll that gave the NDP a 10% lead.

In any other province, I think a hopeless Premier like Christy Clark would be thrown out with barely a better result than the NDP here received in 2001.   

Only in British Columbia can the B.C Liberals get reelected.

[136or142]

I am seeing a big range between pollsters. Is there a reason for this?

No one knows how to poll BC. What this all means is we're probably heading for a repeat of the last three elections in which the Liberals win by 3-5%.

But why does no one know how to poll BC? High level of immigrants?

Is the NDP here doing the most NDP thing ever by squandering their healthy lead as the election approaches?

The B.C NDP likely never had a healthy lead.  Just one outlier poll that gave the NDP a 10% lead.

In any other province, I think a hopeless Premier like Christy Clark would be thrown out with barely a better result than the NDP here received in 2001.  

Only in British Columbia can the B.C Liberals get reelected.

BC reminds me of what Stephen Harper was trying to set up federally. The NDP are too left wing for too many people, and without a Trudeau style liberal party to vote for, they are forced to hold their nose for the BC Liberals/Socreds.

One of the axioms of BC elections is that the NDP can only win with a divided right. Also, the province is very polarized: the last 3 elections have produced pretty much the exact same result.

Historically, that is a bit of a myth.  The NDP would have handily won the election in 1991 had it remained a mostly two party race between the NDP and Social Credit.  Prior to the 1991 debate the NDP were leading something like 48-35% over Social Credit with the B.C Liberals at around 12-15% support.

It's also something of a myth that the B.C Liberals surged from nowhere on the strength of Gordon Wilson's one liner in the debate.  

In the 1986 election, then B.C Liberal leader and former Federal Liberal M.P Art Lee brought the party back to some respectability by getting the B.C Liberals back to around 7% of the vote. (Calculating the actual vote the Liberals received is a bit tricky due to the large number of dual member ridings that existed in that election.  The people in those ridings had two votes, so their votes are double counted.)  

In addition to the 7% of the vote though, Art Lee managed to get Provincial Liberal candidates in nearly all ridings in the province and succeeded somewhat at building up a party infrastructure in all regions, if not in all ridings.

So, it wasn't like Gordon Wilson just came out of nowhere.

Then even before the debate, the Vancouver Sun wrote an editorial mentioning that the B.C Liberals were running a number of high profile candidates and four of those were in competitive races with Social Credit in ridings where NDP support was poor.

The four were:
1.Art Cowie, a well known Vancouver Parks Commissioner who ran in Vancouver-Quilchena

2.Fred Gingell, a prominent businessperson who ran in Delta South.  Among other business concerns, Gingell had been the President or Chair of a Co-Operative gas station chain I believe named "Mohawk Gas."

3.Clive Tanner, a fairly well known book store owner who briefly ran against Gordon Wilson for the B.C Liberal Party leadership who ran in Saanich North.  Tanner had been the Minister of Health in Yukon prior to moving to B.C, and I believe he was often interviewed by the Victoria area media.

4.David Mitchell, a well known B.C Historian who ran in a West Vancouver riding.  David Mitchell is most famous for writing a biography of WAC Bennett, and for his book covering the 1986 Social Credit leadership campaign.  (I've read it, it's a pretty good book.)

All four were elected, but Art Cowie was a dud who was essentially tricked by Gordon Campbell into stepping down to allow Campbell a seat in the legislature and Clive Tanner was a disaster.

Anyway, after the debate, B.C Liberal support only increased to around 25% from the 12-15% prior, and had it not been for Social Credit's inability to refocus their campaign to go after the B.C Liberals who were taking their supporters, the B.C Liberals probably wouldn't have done anywhere near as well as they did.  So, Social Credit continued to campaign against Mike Harcourt and the NDP, even though after the debate, all that did was convince some voters in many parts of the province to vote B.C Liberal.

If I recall correctly, after the campaign, the Social Credit campaign director admitted that like the Generals at the start of World War I,  they had planned out their entire campaign and had all of their resources committed and they had no way to respond to any changing campaign circumstances.

[136or142]

Historically, that is a bit of a myth.  The NDP would have handily won the election in 1991 had it remained a mostly two party race between the NDP and Social Credit.  Prior to the 1991 debate the NDP were leading something like 48-35% over Social Credit with the B.C Liberals at around 12-15% support.

It's also something of a myth that the B.C Liberals surged from nowhere on the strength of Gordon Wilson's one liner in the debate.  

....

Anyway, after the debate, B.C Liberal support only increased to around 25% from the 12-15% prior, and had it not been for Social Credit's inability to refocus their campaign to go after the B.C Liberals who were taking their supporters, the B.C Liberals probably wouldn't have done anywhere near as well as they did.  So, Social Credit continued to campaign against Mike Harcourt and the NDP, even though after the debate, all that did was convince some voters in many parts of the province to vote B.C Liberal.

If I recall correctly, after the campaign, the Social Credit campaign director admitted that like the Generals at the start of World War I,  they had planned out their entire campaign and had all of their resources committed and they had no way to respond to any changing campaign circumstances.

The foregoing is the worst case of historical revisionism that I have ever read on this site. Bar none.

Right off the bat, since 1975, the then incarnation of the BC Libs was considered fringe and dead. Same with the BC Cons. Election after election thereafter, BC Libs received virtually no media coverage and signage was essentially non-existent.

Same heading into the 1991 BC campaign. Heading into the 1991 campaign, Socred Rita Johnston (a frumpy Zalmoid so-con retread) was up against the Harcourt NDP - a foregone conclusion on the eventual outcome in a "change election"- one would think.

Interestingly enough, BCTV (now Global BC) ran a daily provincial voting intention tracking poll from the commencement of the writ period on their 6 pm newscast. Back then BCTV (with anchor Tony Parsons) was the dominant powerhouse in BC in terms of ratings. Global BC is still dominant in terms of market share/ratings in terms of their 6 pm newscast, but not the same powerhouse today.

In any event, the daily BC election tracking poll led the BCTV 6 pm newscast each and every evening. Fascinating stuff. At the commencement of the 1991 writ period, the BC NDP was in mid-40% range, Socreds in mid/upper 30% range, and BC Libs ~10% range (Socred vote parking akin to BC Cons relatively recently). While BCTV only showed decided vote, they also show undecided vote separately, which was in mid-20% range.

The 1991 TV leaders debate was strictly a Socred Johnston/NDP Harcourt affair. They both opposed any new entrant such as unknown BC Lib Gordon Wilson. The BC Libs, running candidates in 71/75 ridings, felt that they were also entitled to be at the TV leaders debate. So much so, that they launched a protest and had picketers in front of the CBC building in downtown Van City. The pressure built and the network eventually capitulated.

9 days before e-day, the 1991 TV debate occurred - now with 3 party leaders. And during the debate, BC Lib leader Gordon Wilson "had his moment" with this famous poli quip: "This reminds me of the legislature and here's a classic example of why nothing ever gets done in the province of British Columbia". Archived CBC news story:

http://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/bc-elections-1991-gordon-wilsons-debate-triumph

That Gordon Wilson clip was the highlight of all TV/radio newscasts the next day. And the rest is history.

But that BCTV tracking poll at the top of their 6 pm evening newscasts also played a major part of the overall 1991 campaign. Their BC Lib numbers the following night saw a spike, which further fed into the media narrative. Another BC Lib spike the next night. So much so that the BC Libs tied the BC NDP at ~37% each with the Socreds falling to mid-20's range.

And then, ~4 - 5 days after the debate, one night BCTV's nightly tracking poll had the BC Libs over-taking the BC NDP by 1%.

Over a course of just a few days one also saw same on the ground. BC Lib lawn signs were akin to a Sasquatch siting prior to the 1991 TV leaders debate and since 1972. All of a sudden, BC Lib lawn signs sprouted akin to mushrooms all over Metro Vancouver lawns and elsewhere, which fed into that visual momentum.

The BC NDP were so concerned that they held a major press conference attended by BC NDP pitbulls such as Glen Clark and Moe Sihota, which also had major media coverage - BC NDP attacked BC Libs as untested with no experience and a dubious, uncosted platform. Wise strategic decision. Definitely blunted upward BC Lib momentum, which was also included soft-leaners.

Moreover, the BC media also then focused upon the BC Libs/their platform picking apart same. BCTV tracking polls then saw a stall in BC Lib momentum with BC NDP regaining a slight lead.

Remember this was over the course of ~6 days (~9 days from TV debate to e-day). After e-day, BC NDP strategists confided to Van Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer that, had the writ period lasted another week, 1991 would have seen a BC Lib majority gov't with their momentum. Palmer has even written about same over the past decade. Google is your friend.

Final 1991 election outcome:

BC NDP: 40.7% - 51 seats
BC Lib: 33.3% - 17 seats
Socred: 24.1% - 7 seats

As a result of Socred/Lib vote splits, BC NDP won seats in 1991 that they have never won before or since.

Had BC Lib Gordon Wilson never attended the 1991 TV leaders debate, the BC NDP/Socred spread would undoubtedly have been much closer with BC Libs only obtaining perhaps 10% siphoning off anti-Zalmoid Socred votes and the seat count would have been much closer as well.

BTW, I wrote a UBC poli 101 paper on this exact topic back in the day.

You are the biggest liar in the B.C election thread forum, bar none.

The BCTV polls were junk polls. On the day before the election, they showed the Liberals in the lead and this was duly reported on the front page of the Vancouver Sun.  After the actual results came in, Mike Harcourt doing a riff on President Harry Truman held up the newspaper and said something like "The good news is we won the election, the bad news is the latest BCTV poll shows us in third place."

In explaining why the BCTV polls were wrong a fair bit outside the margin of error, their polling director gave the nonsensical answer of "Our polls didn't take into account the superior NDP get out the vote organization."  No election expert would ever believe that a superior campaign organization could result in a 10% difference between a poll and the actual result.  

If you actually take those junk BCTV polls in the 1991 election seriously, you clearly aren't the expert on polling you believe yourself to be.

As to the rest, the NDP on the basis of their anti-free trade campaign in the 1988 Federal Election won 19 of 32 seats federally, (and lost two other ridings by under 200 votes.)  Those 21 seats were in ridings that virtually map the 51 ridings the NDP won provincially.  The handful of credible polls in that election said why I showed, the NDP with a roughly 13% lead over Social Credit going into the debate and likely set to win the same ridings that they ended up winning.

The NDP won 19 of 32 seats and the P.C's 12 even though the NDP won the popular vote just 37.0% to 35.3%.  The Federal Liberals took the other seat and 20.4%.  This was even though the Federal Liberals also ran an anti free trade campaign, and, in that simple sense, should have split the vote with the NDP, and not the P.Cs.  So, again, the precedent of the NDP not needing a vote split on the right to win a provincial majority had already been established just 3 years before the provincial election.

The things you wrote about the B.C Liberal Party pre-debate actually backs up what I wrote:  The B.C Liberals started the campaign at around 10%, their highest level since 1975 (and increased it slightly going into the debate), and they had nearly a full slate of candidates, largely based on the organizational work of Art Lee that was followed up on by Gordon Wilson.

I don't know what would have happened to B.C Liberal support if Gordon Wilson hadn't have been in the debate, it's a counterfactual.  I have no doubt they wouldn't have scored the breakthrough they did, but it's very possible that the debate between Rita Johnson and Mike Harcourt would have turned so many viewers off that the B.C Liberals would have seen their support increase anyway.  At the very least, with or without being in the debate, it's very likely those 4 B.C Liberal candidates I mentioned would have been elected.

So, not only did you not show that my comment was revisionist history, you actually back up a good deal of it.  And, the part where you claim I'm wrong is based on the junk BCTV polls that you take seriously for some reason, even though they were as off as the 2013 election polls were. (Of course, I know why you take them seriously, they showed bad results for the NDP. So, even though they were junk, I can only presume you must believe those polls were actually right and the election result must somehow have been wrong.)

You are a liar and a troll and everybody here knows it.  I honestly have no idea why you keep posting here. I think pretty much every poster here has you on ignore.  Again, for not paying on the bet you lost to me and for 'doxing' me, I again ask the mod here to ban you from this website.

[136or142]

You are a liar and a troll and everybody here knows it.  I honestly have no idea why you keep posting here. I think pretty much every poster here has you on ignore.  Again, for not paying on the bet you lost to me and for 'doxing' me, I again ask the mod here to ban you from this website.

Hahahaha. Pffft. What a maroon. You are what negatively stereotypes BC across Canada - a fringe, loony left-wing BC flake. Now run along and put me on your ignore list.

I've explained this to you three times, you are on my ignore list already.  Not a surprise you're not intelligent enough to understand my explanation.

[136or142]

You are a liar and a troll and everybody here knows it.  I honestly have no idea why you keep posting here. I think pretty much every poster here has you on ignore.  Again, for not paying on the bet you lost to me and for 'doxing' me, I again ask the mod here to ban you from this website.

Hahahaha. Pffft. What a maroon. You are what negatively stereotypes BC across Canada - a fringe, loony left-wing BC flake. Now run along and put me on your ignore list.

Ho-hum, recycling the old "loony left-wing flake" bashing.  Can it; it's juvenile.

But that said, the answers lie in between.  I actually agree with you on how, in certain respects, the 1991 election *actually* transpired--but at the same time, I agree with Adam T. that the Liberals had already been building up their game in 1986 (remember: they only got .5% in 1979, and 2.7% in 1983), and that was the foundation from which they were operating in 1991.  So, the BCGrits were already operating with that eventuality in mind, which is why they made a point of nominating more credible candidates than would have been the case a decade earlier--a sort of "electoral credibility banking".  There are parallels where all that + an exemplary debate (or at least soundbite) performance led to an electoral jackpot; Manitoba's Carstairs Liberals in 1988 comes to mind, or even the federal "Le Bon Jack" phenomenon in 2011.  In fact, in some ways the BC Liberals were actually *saved* by their still-limited legislative gains in 1991; by and large the best people won, and the caucus was relatively accidental-flake-free, which formed a solid foundation for the Gordon Campbell era.

Given the context of the time, I also disagree with the assessment of BCTV polls as "junk polls"--junk, maybe, to the geeks that populate this forum; but in those pre-Internet days when the masses still gathered around the TV screen for their evening news regimen, they carried a lot of clout, even if there was arguably a touch of push-poll or confirmation bias about them--the latter borne out by how they didn't *quite* capture the final result.

I think, in the end, we all should quit these accusations and counter-accusations re what is or isn't a junk poll (or at least, heavy-handedly bandying around the term "junk poll", which is as obnoxious as duels over what is or isn't "fake news").  I mean, there are obvious signals/cases of "junkiness" (like, taking the BC Cons electorally seriously in 2017); but it might be more useful to simply strategically regard it *all* as one form or another of "junk" which provides useful trend and pattern data all the same, cum grano salis or not.  Distill it all, and form our own conclusions with a touch of "chance allowance", and let everything fall as it may and draw more conclusions from *that*.

It's a reason why, in my heart, I prefer post-mortem analysis to prediction analysis, and why I do *not* like to predict percentages, seat numbers, etc--any or this sports-pool/playing-the-stocks  boring-dude type of stuff.  I don't mind *witnessing* them in boards like this one; I just don't like to participate--I'd rather sponge off the rest of you, who are, in the end, no more "junky" than the polls you deride....

1.I meant junk polls in that their methodology was clearly terrible.  I don't mean it in the sense that people didn't take them seriously.  I also made no claim that their polls were deliberately biased against the NDP.

2.I somewhat agree about the quality of the Liberal M.L.As elected in 1991.  Of the 17, there were only four good M.L.As - Fred Gingell, Gary Farrell Collins, Wilf Hurd and, for awhile, David Mitchell.

But many were harmless non entities like Val Anderson and Doug Symons, Dan Jarvis, Ken Jones, Art Cowie, Lynn Stephens, Robert Chisholm (elected in Chilliwack,I actually don't remember him) but quite a few were outright noxious - Jeremy Dalton, Clive Tanner, Judi Tyabji, Gordon Wilson and Linda Reid.  

Allan Warnke was one of the strongest critics for awhile, as he was one of the most knowledgeable Liberals on government and legislative procedure having been a political science professor.  But, he became a relatively high profile critic on the basis of his bombast, and after short while, it became clear that all he had to offer was bombast.

After Gordon Campbell became leader, he recruited Geoff Plant to run as the Liberal nominee in Richmond-Steveston against Allan Warnke, and Warnke ended up running as independent and received less than 3% of the vote.  Geoff Plant was an excellent M.L.A.

I think Fred Gingell would have made a better finance minister than Gary (Farrell) Collins did, but you can't always get what you want.

While Gordon Wilson, following up on the work of Art Lee did continue to build on the organization of the B.C Liberals, and ran candidates in nearly every riding, the quality of the candidates was sometimes lacking.  One of the things that stopped the B.C Liberal's momentum in that election was Wilson's admission that he hadn't met every B.C Liberal candidate in the province. This was taken as an admission that he knew practically nothing about at least some of his party's candidates.

3.Most importantly, irrespective of the B.C Liberals, the NDP was going to easily defeat Social Credit in 1991 had the election remained a mostly two way race with the B.C Liberals getting between 10-15% of the vote.  The NDP did not need a 'split on the right' to win in 1991.

[136or142]

CKNW talk show host Simi Sara is giving away a prize to any person who emails her with the correct seat total prediction. (She doesn't know what prize yet, I've offered her some of my B.C politics books)

Even better, the winner will be interviewed by her on Wednesday.

I hope it's OK to post her (work) email address here:
simi@cknw.com

[136or142]

So which website is the best place to watch results come in? I haven't been a fan of CBC's redesign.

www.cknw.com will have a combined radio/television effort with Global News. 

[136or142]

Pretty amazing how close the seat count is given the large LIB vote share lead.

There were more votes counted in the safe Liberal ridings than in the other ridings at that time.

[136or142]

Two points I didn't see mentioned on separate topics about this election:

1.The absentee/early votes won't be counted for a full two weeks.  They are counted at the same time as  the totals are certified which may mean a recount of all the ballots in each riding (I forget if that's the case or not.)

Anyway, in 2013 there were around 160,000 of these ballots.  So, with 87 ridings, that's an average of 2,000 votes per riding. So, whatever you hear about a media organization calling a candidate a winner tonight in a very close riding, just remember what Yogi Bera said.

In the Comox riding for instance, where the NDP candidate has 'won' by nine votes, the Liberal candidate is the former head of the military base in the riding and there are likely a fair number of absentee military votes to come in.  I guess will find out what the soldiers think of their former boss.

In regards to which party these votes normally favor, it's different per riding but it doesn't often result in a change of the winner.  But, it might!  In 1986, Social Credit lead in 2 ridings that they ended up losing.    That was an earlier absentee vote process called a 'Section 80 vote.'  Darlene Marzari of the NDP won in Vancouver-Point Grey after narrowly 'losing' on election night to the nasty Social Credit M.L.A Pat McGeer.  A second New Democrat also won after 'losing' on election night, but, like Rick Perry, I can't remember who.

An interesting note about that is that the election night result was 49 Social Credit and 20 NDP and the final result was 47-22.  Premier Bill Vander Zalm who at that time was still the media darling played a little game with the media as he wrote on a card sealed in an envelope predicting the result but told the media not to open the envelope until the end of the night of the election. His prediction was 47-22.

For those interested, Pat McGeer was a longtime M.L.A who was part of the B.C Liberal caucus from 1972-1975 that joined Social Credit.  He is a brilliant medical researcher who is also highly arrogant and insensitive.  As Advanced Education minister he once said "young people who would like to go to University but can't afford it just have to understand they have to save up for it first."  (I don't dispute there is some truth to that but it's also a 'let them eat cake type comment as obviously it's those who can't afford to go to college who most need the boost from getting a degree.)

He recently returned to the news when he wrote a ridiculous op/ed in favor of keeping whales in captivity.  He wrote 'as much as we like to think we know what whales are thinking, that's nothing but anthropomorphizing them.  Also, when I see them doing their performances, they look happy to me."

He was brilliantly ripped apart by an animal researcher who pointed out that the only value of studying whales in captivity is to find out about other whales in captivity.

[136or142]

In 2005, the NDP received more of the votes not counted on election day than the B.C Liberals but ended up losing two seats they had 'won' on election night.  These were two ridings where the NDP incumbent defeated in 2001 ran again in 2005: Tim Stevenson in a Vancouver riding and Pietro Calendino in a Burnaby riding.

I don't believe the outstanding votes have resulted in a riding change since then, maybe Selina Robinson in Coquitlam-Maillardville in 2013.

[136or142]

2.I didn't read all the comments but I didn't see this mentioned here, but this stuck out as much to me as the gains by the Green Party: the growing split between Greater Vancouver which trended heavily towards the NDP, and the Interior which trended heavily towards the B.C Liberals.

It's actually not really accurate to call The Interior 'rural' as there are three fairly large cities in the Interior:  Kelowna (2011 population of  117,312), Kamloops (85,678) and Prince George (71,974)

Their is also a separate city (suburb) of West Kelowna (Christy Clark's riding) which has a population of around 30,000.


In the Lower Mainland
The Richmond ridings were the closest they've been since 1979 when there was just the one Richmond riding.  The NDP vote in Richmond went up by around 10% from the 2013 election.  I don't know if that was just part of the general trend, the sense from Richmond voters that they had been taken for granted by the B.C Liberals, or even that the longer the Richmond Chinese population integrates into Richmond and Canada, the more they start voting like the general population.

Edit: Vosem commented on this, but I don't think Vosem noticed the full extent of the diverging trends.  I don't think the NDP gained in a single Interior/North riding, and they lost two more of these ridings: Columbia River-Revelstoke (maybe partially due to the weakness of the terrible NDP candidate) and Skeena.  The NDP is now down to just five interior ridings including Powell River-Sunshine Coast.  So, Liberals 20 NDP 5.

[136or142]

Election results would come in so much faster if my idea was adopted:  take all the ballots, put them in a big round opaque thing, spin it around, a judge picks out one ballot, whoever got the vote on that ballot wins.

Odds are it will have end up with the same result as the full count.

[136or142]

These were the ridings I predicted incorrectly (so far)
1.Columbia River-Revelstoke
2.Courtney-Comox
3.Cowichan Valley (that was the riding where my riding by riding prediction differed from the prediction I sent into CKNW, I predicted the Greens riding by riding)
4.Fraser-Nicola
5.Maple Ridge-Mission
6.North Vancouver-Lonsdale (how did a 31 year old unknown civil engineer win the NDP nomination in this riding and get elected to the legislature?)
7.Port Moody-Coquitlam, (the NDP MLA - bye-election winner-  and popular former mayor couldn't hold this riding in 2013, but the NDP win it now?)
8.Skeena
9.Surrey-Panorama

I post this in this thread, because the five Greater Vancouver ridings here went to the NDP and the three Interior/North ridings went to the Liberals.  Courtney-Comox was a surprise because the riding redistribution heavily favored the Liberals.

These were the ridings that I considered as 'safe' that ended up (so far) very or reasonably close:
1.Langley
2.North Vancouver-Seymour (I thought the Greens would do much better here)
3.Richmond-Queensborough
4.Richmond-South Center
5.Richmond-Steveston
6.Vancouver-False Creek (I thought the Greens would do much better here)

The NDP did much better in all these ridings than I expected

And, ridings that I thought would be close that ended up not being close or not being as close as I thought
1.Cariboo North
2.Penticton
3.Saanich North and the Islands (expected a closer three way race.  We again see that polling in individual ridings is tough to do.)


If Christy Clark resigned, I'd bet the B.C Liberals would regain much of their popularity in Greater Vancouver and would win a comfortable majority in the subsequent election.

I think these are the possible leadership contenders:
Old guard
1.Mike de Jong
2.Rich Coleman (more likely interim leader)
3.Shirley Bond

In the middle
1.Mary Polak
2.Mike Bernier
3.Steve Thomson

Newly elected
1.Peter Milobar, mayor of Kamloops
2.Jas Johal, former Global B.C Reporter (if elected in Richmond-Queensborough)
3.Tracy Redies, former CEO of Coast Capital Credit Union

Personally I quite like Mike Bernier.  I also think former Conservative M.P (and 'Red Tory') James Moore would be an excellent choice but I don't think he's interested.

[136or142]

Election results would come in so much faster if my idea was adopted:  take all the ballots, put them in a big round opaque thing, spin it around, a judge picks out one ballot, whoever got the vote on that ballot wins.

Odds are it will have end up with the same result as the full count.

Depends on the sample size.

Most B.C ridings have 15,000-20,000 votes.

Is that a large enough sample size?