CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Adam Griffin]

LOL: somebody named "Chris Christie" is currently leading the DEM-AL-ATTYGEN race by less than a point.

[Adam Griffin]

Looking at the two-way vote in AL, where did all the energy go? Maybe it's just a case of huge Democratic precincts being disproportionately outstanding...but the GOP has 71% of ballots counted thus far. Only 15% of the vote is counted thus far, though (and AL does have a big counting bias if the Senate special is any indicator).

Also, Maddox's lead has narrowed to 12 points.

GOP down to 66% of ballots and Maddox up by 21 again in a matter of minutes, lol.

[Adam Griffin]

It's going to be funny if Maddox gets a higher vote share than Ivey in the primary...Ivey has been dropping for a while now (currently 57.5%).

[Adam Griffin]

Baria's barely - but consistently has been - hanging on in MS, but the Mississippi River counties have yet to report virtually anything...

[Adam Griffin]

It's going to be funny if Maddox gets a higher vote share than Ivey in the primary...Ivey has been dropping for a while now (currently 57.5%).

Getting close:

[Adam Griffin]

Sherman is now in first place in MS.

[Adam Griffin]

Did anybody already mention it? Bobby Bright made the runoff in AL-2.

[Adam Griffin]

Did anybody already mention it? Bobby Bright made the runoff in AL-2.

Yeah this was obvious earlier when Roby was clearly going to be held under 50.

Bright was in third earlier, though.


Also, what's going on in AL-5? Ivey's losing all the counties that correspond to the congressional district (plus 1 adjacent; winning every other county in the state) and Brooks isn't exactly sailing through his primary, either.

[Adam Griffin]

Did anybody already mention it? Bobby Bright made the runoff in AL-2.

Yeah this was obvious earlier when Roby was clearly going to be held under 50.

Bright was in third earlier, though.


Also, what's going on in AL-5? Ivey's losing all the counties that correspond to the congressional district (plus 1 adjacent; winning every other county in the state) and Brooks isn't exactly sailing through his primary, either.

Ivey's opponent is the mayor of Huntsville, so that was his base. I'm not sure about Brooks.

Makes sense. It seems like this would be the area where if any disaffected GOP voters had been dislodged, it would be obvious. That would in theory make Brooks even less vulnerable, yet...maybe all those new "Doug Jones Democrats" pulled a GOP ballot anyway because of Battle/hometown loyalty and decided to stick it to Brooks at the same time.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like some people don't remember how substantially the national PV shifts to the Democrats in the days following presidential elections, almost entirely because of California. What do they think is going to happen statewide?

[Adam Griffin]

Look at how ing terrible numbers in cd's are even in obvious D holds. Garamendi at 54?!

Bera at 52?!

McNerney at 53?!

Carbajal at 52?!

Waters at 68?!

Lowenthal at 56?!

Peters at 57?!

Yes, these are all likely to safe D holds, but still terrible numbers, awful!

[Adam Griffin]

Has anyone commented that Archie Parnell is winning by a huge margin in the D primary in SC-05 despite having dropped out? What's going to happen there?

I keep seeing this posted in the thread, but I don't see anywhere where Parnell said he was dropping out...? There are multiple articles within the past two days with endorsements from county Democratic committee members, etc.

[Adam Griffin]

Golden ahead by 2 with 17% reporting.

[Adam Griffin]

GOP still below 60% in the two-party vote in SC with three-quarters in; anybody know how much (if any) of a counting bias the state has?

[Adam Griffin]

Something I found interesting on VA SOS:

GOP Absentee Vote: 10,593
DEM Absentee Vote: 11,406

Democrats outvoted Republicans statewide by absentee ballot even without a statewide primary and with virtually no local races on the ballot.

[Adam Griffin]

St. Lucas is done for.

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Good f[inks]ing riddance.

[Adam Griffin]

Has Arrington's margin shrunk a bit?

Katie Arrington
27,505   51.3%   
Mark Sanford
24,592   45.8%
81% REPORTING

Doesn't look like the raw vote margin has, though, so Sanford's screwed in all likelihood; would need over 70% of likely outstanding ballots to close the gap. Not sure why it's not being called by NYT already.

[Adam Griffin]

I can't believe there's still nothing in from Greenville...that has to be a considerable sum of what's left (along with Charleston).

GOP at 58.7% of ballots with 85% reporting, but I could see them getting real close (if not above) 60% once Greenville's counted.

[Adam Griffin]

Who are Olson voters likely to 2pref?

If the margins at present largely hold, it won't necessarily matter. Right now, Golden would need less than 10% of Olsen's voters to win. However, it wouldn't surprise me if there's a coin-toss distribution among his voters, giving potentially plenty of wiggle room to Golden.

[Adam Griffin]

For those curious about primary ballot distribution in the current results available:

NV: 57.9% DEM
SC: 58.1% GOP
ME: 59.1% DEM

[Adam Griffin]

Has Arrington's margin shrunk a bit?

Katie Arrington
27,505   51.3%   
Mark Sanford
24,592   45.8%
81% REPORTING

Doesn't look like the raw vote margin has, though, so Sanford's screwed in all likelihood; would need over 70% of likely outstanding ballots to close the gap. Not sure why it's not being called by NYT already.

It has. She was near 53% earlier. It's been clear for a while now she was going to finish ahead, but I think they're just being cautious in case she drops to 49.9999%.

Oh, duh: I keep forgetting this is a runoff contest.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/j_mundry/status/1006736421644898304

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/j_mundry/status/1006736421644898304

So they think Golden has it in the bag?

Yeah I don’t get it. Based on the way things are going Jared should slowly fall to under 50%

Well Golden looks on track to hover around 50% eithier way. If he ends up with 49% it's still all but certain Golden will win at least 10% of the third guy's supporters.

Yeah, at this point, they've either lost or it's going to be days before anything is known. No point in sticking around.

[Adam Griffin]

Golden 49.995%
St Clair 40.290%

[Adam Griffin]

Going to release an update to my Amazing Senate Primary Turnout Map at this point. In North Dakota, Republicans attracted 65% of the primary vote, which may be a bit of a concern for Heitkamp, although her primary was uncontested as was the ND-1 D primary.

In Virginia, unfortunately Tim Kaine did not appear on the primary ballot today, so we have to get creative. In their contested house primaries, Democrats attracted 186,570 votes in total. Republicans attracted 108,025 votes in total. I believe this to be the most fair calculation, and it comes out to 63% of the primary vote going to Democrats.

I will include figures for Nevada and Maine once more of the result has come in.

Not sure I'd agree with this method; very rudimentary and too exclusionary.

What I'm likely going to do for my county primary project map (at least for the state as a whole) is use 2016 figures to proportion the share of the Democratic and Republican electorates in these districts. For the GOP, we can take the statewide turnout at face value, obviously, but for the Democrats, we can proportion these districts' shares of the 2016 statewide Democratic electorate for a more reflective result.

CDs 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 & 10 combined were 45.4% of Hillary Clinton's vote share in 2016 (and 65.6% of Trump's). From the figures we do have available for those Democratic primaries tonight (185,614 votes), we can adjust:

(Adjusted) Virginia 2018 Primary Electorate:
DEM: 409,201 (57.3%)
GOP: 304,435 (42.7%)

It of course and unfortunately does assume equal enthusiasm between the two groupings of CDs had elections for Democrats occurred everywhere, but I believe this would be considerably more accurate than just looking at partial House results for an idea of the primary electorate under normal circumstances.