CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[wesmoorenerd]

The biggest question here for me is whether or not the CA Democratic Party s up big time and wastes an opportunity to take Royce, Rohrabacher, or Issa's seats. All three, especially Rohrabacher's seat, are looking highly vulnerable to a Democratic lockout because of the stupid blanket primary system. If the Dems fail to get a candidate in any of these, it's clear proof that A: the dumbasses like Omar Siddiqui that are getting five percent of the vote should've dropped out a long time ago and B: the CA Democratic Party needed to put their finger on the scale in that regard much earlier than they tried to and whittled the field down. The stakes are clearly too high for them to do otherwise in the future.

[wesmoorenerd]

The biggest question here for me is whether or not the CA Democratic Party s up big time and wastes an opportunity to take Royce, Rohrabacher, or Issa's seats. All three, especially Rohrabacher's seat, are looking highly vulnerable to a Democratic lockout because of the stupid blanket primary system. If the Dems fail to get a candidate in any of these, it's clear proof that A: the dumbasses like Omar Siddiqui that are getting five percent of the vote should've dropped out a long time ago and B: the CA Democratic Party needed to put their finger on the scale in that regard much earlier than they tried to and whittled the field down. The stakes are clearly too high for them to do otherwise in the future.

Royce and Issa all have a clear frontrunner in Cisernos and Applegate respectively. An R vs R runoff is only somewhat possible in Rohrabacher's seat, but people underestimate how much needs to go wrong for the Dems for that to happen.

Applegate is certainly a frontrunner for the Dems, but I think it's entirely possible that we end up with a Chavez-Harkey GE. I'll admit that it's not incredibly likely, but I do think Harkey has been gaining ground lately and it wouldn't take too much to push her over the top.

[wesmoorenerd]

Baria's barely - but consistently has been - hanging on in MS, but the Mississippi River counties have yet to report virtually anything...

I'm absolutely shocked Baria doesn't have a commanding lead, from an outsider's perspective he seems like the best candidate (and the only one that has even the slimmest chance of winning in a massive wave)

[wesmoorenerd]

Calling it now: the national Dems absolutely backed the wrong horse in Rouda - either Keirstead makes the GE or the Dems get locked out.

[wesmoorenerd]

Hot damn, looks like Chavez imploded HARD in CA-49. Dem shutout there looking very, very unlikely. Pretty incredible that the former frontrunner has sunk down to 7% with the no-names.

[wesmoorenerd]

By my count, a list of set November races that are guaranteed to NOT be D-R:

CA-06: Doris Matsui (D) vs. Jrmar Jefferson (D)
CA-20: Jimmy Panetta (D) vs. Ronald Kabat (I)
CA-27: Judy Chu (D) vs. Bryan Witt (D)
CA-40: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) vs. Rodolfo Barragan (G)

[wesmoorenerd]

Are any of these primary challengers to incumbents likely to be close?
1.Colorado 1, Diana DeGette vs Saira Rao
2.Colorado 5, Doug Lamborn vs Darryl Glen/Owen Hill
3.New York 9, Yvette Clarke vs Adem Bunkeddeko
4.New York 11, Dan Donovan vs Michael Grimm
5.New York 12, Carolyn Maloney vs. Suraj Patel
6.New York 14, Joe Crowley vs. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez
7.Utah 3, John Curtis vs Chris Herrod

NY-11 might actually favor Grimm right now. There's been a lot of buzz about NY-14 but it remains to be seen whether that'll amount to anything.

[wesmoorenerd]

I believe Ocasio will be the youngest person to be elected to Congress in history, beating Elise Stefanik.

Wow, she's even younger than Abby Finkenauer. That's crazy. She's definitely got a long future ahead of her.

[wesmoorenerd]

Chelsea Manning got demolished. Only having 5.3% of the vote.

Maryland: less socially progressive than Eastern Europe!

I'm from Maryland and I can tell you that not only is Manning a terrible fit for the state, with a relatively establishment supporting base, but she literally didn't campaign. Like at all. Her being trans has nothing to do with that. Maryland would be perfectly willing to support a trans candidate... if they were a good candidate.

[wesmoorenerd]

NY-23 is definitely a longer shot for Democrats, but it's worth noting that the Democratic primary there is one of the tightest of the night: Tracy Mitrano has a 70 vote lead over Max Della Pia with 77% in.

[wesmoorenerd]

One of few sour notes tonight, David Trone after two tries and $23 Million dollars has successfully bought a congressional seat.

Yes, Delaney ally, great guy, will be a wonderful congressman! Also, the traitor got beaten so bad lol!

The more of your bizarre centrist ramblings I read, the less I pay attention to them.

[wesmoorenerd]

Anyone mind trying to explain to her what a Democratic primary is?

https://twitter.com/kayleighmcenany/status/1011810093782978563

This idiot was able to transfer into Harvard Law School

It's called the "White Blonde Rich Conservative Political Commentator Effect"

See also: Tomi Lahren

[wesmoorenerd]

Well, RIP Abby Finkenauer.

To be fair, chances are both AOC and Finkenauer are are in Congress by this time next year.