IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[WD]

Looking forward to everyone saying that Greenfield was a "weak candidate" all the time when she inevitably ends up doing worse than Bullock, Hegar (who loses by 1% or so), and Ossoff (who finishes at 49.5% 0.5% or something like that) and that they saw it coming all along.

FTFY. Have you forgotten who Ossoff is up against?

[Joe Republic]

You mean to say the "my job experience is castrating pigs" lady isn’t such a great candidate after all?

The only reason she’s even a senator now is because Barley Bales was somehow even worse, and 2014 was... 2014.

[SnowLabrador]

You mean to say the "my job experience is castrating pigs" lady isn’t such a great candidate after all?

The only reason she’s even a senator now is because Barley Bales was somehow even worse, and 2014 was... 2014.

The only reason she might narrowly lose now is because of a massive blue wave. Iowa's still a pretty red state, and getting redder.

[wbrocks67]

You mean to say the "my job experience is castrating pigs" lady isn’t such a great candidate after all?

The only reason she’s even a senator now is because Barley Bales was somehow even worse, and 2014 was... 2014.

The only reason she might narrowly lose now is because of a massive blue wave. Iowa's still a pretty red state, and getting redder.

2018 would disagree with that

[NerdyBohemian]

This whole thing with the dog could only happen in a state as white as Iowa.

[Calthrina950]

You mean to say the "my job experience is castrating pigs" lady isn’t such a great candidate after all?

The only reason she’s even a senator now is because Barley Bales was somehow even worse, and 2014 was... 2014.

The only reason she might narrowly lose now is because of a massive blue wave. Iowa's still a pretty red state, and getting redder.

2018 would disagree with that

There is some truth to what you both say. The Democrats, for the most part, were successful in Iowa in 2018, as they won several statewide races (Attorney General, Auditor, and Secretary of State) and flipped two congressional districts. Their only failure there was the gubernatorial election, where they came up short by three percentage points. Nevertheless, that failure could be a sign of the Party's future there, and Iowa did trend significantly to the right in 2016. Polls still show Trump as having a narrow advantage there, and Republicans might gain a district or two. Nevertheless, it's clear that Greenfield does have a shot, and Ernst's own errors aren't helping her.

[Pollster]

I mentioned this in another thread, but I think the appeal of mainstream, "average person" candidates who aren't actively seeking a national profile is being heavily underrated this cycle, especially after a midterm cycle and anticlimactic Presidential primary that were both largely driven by viral moments and personal celebrity.

[wbrocks67]

I mentioned this in another thread, but I think the appeal of mainstream, "average person" candidates who aren't actively seeking a national profile is being heavily underrated this cycle, especially after a midterm cycle and anticlimactic Presidential primary that were both largely driven by viral moments and personal celebrity.

True, I think this is why you see candidates like Cal Cunningham and Greenfield doing well. Even people like Gideon and Kelly, who have a bit of a higher profile, still come off with that 'everyday' vibe as well.

[wbrocks67]

OMG theres audio too. How could Ernst possibly think that saying her opponent was "taking selfies with her dog Ringo" was somehow an attack and not endearing to almost everyone?

https://twitter.com/chevytothe_levy/status/1289228636797755392

[Calthrina950]

OMG theres audio too. How could Ernst possibly think that saying her opponent was "taking selfies with her dog Ringo" was somehow an attack and not endearing to almost everyone?

https://twitter.com/chevytothe_levy/status/1289228636797755392

An absolutely ridiculous attack on Ernst's part. I'd rather have a politician take pictures with their dog then accept bribes or engage in illegal, under-the-table deals.

[LimoLiberal]

Putting aside the Ringo scandal, the Atlas narrative that Joni Ernst is running an awful campaign is pretty weak. She's probably tied or losing if the election were held tomorrow, but that's just a reflection of the terrible environment for GOPers, not her specific weaknesses. Greenfield, however, has run a good campaign in the vein of Cal Cunningham; staying in her basement, raising boatloads of cash and coasting on the national environment, with almost no negative media exposure.

[wbrocks67]

Putting aside the Ringo scandal, the Atlas narrative that Joni Ernst is running an awful campaign is pretty weak. She's probably tied or losing if the election were held tomorrow, but that's just a reflection of the terrible environment for GOPers, not her specific weaknesses. Greenfield, however, has run a good campaign in the vein of Cal Cunningham; staying in her basement, raising boatloads of cash and coasting on the national environment, with almost no negative media exposure.

I would just say that Ernst is making a lot of unforced errors and blunders. Almost every time she speaks, it seems like she says something just.... stupid.

[coloradocowboi]

Looking forward to everyone saying that Greenfield was a "weak candidate" all the time when she inevitably ends up doing worse than Bullock, Hegar (who loses by 1% or so), and Ossoff (who finishes at 49.5% or something like that) and that they saw it coming all along.

Greenfield is a weak candidate, just like Hickenlooper, Hegar, Ossoff, Cunningham, and all of Schumer's other loser picks this time around. Unfortunately, it's also shaping up to be a massive blue wave.

I think Greenfield will almost certainly outperform Hegar and probably Ossoff, and will likely beat Ernst just on grounds of anger against Trump and demoralized/depressed GOP voter turnout. Not that it matters--Grassley will retire in 22 and Ernst will probably just run for his seat and win.

[SnowLabrador]

Looking forward to everyone saying that Greenfield was a "weak candidate" all the time when she inevitably ends up doing worse than Bullock, Hegar (who loses by 1% or so), and Ossoff (who finishes at 49.5% or something like that) and that they saw it coming all along.

Greenfield is a weak candidate, just like Hickenlooper, Hegar, Ossoff, Cunningham, and all of Schumer's other loser picks this time around. Unfortunately, it's also shaping up to be a massive blue wave.

I think Greenfield will almost certainly outperform Hegar and probably Ossoff, and will likely beat Ernst just on grounds of anger against Trump and demoralized/depressed GOP voter turnout. Not that it matters--Grassley will retire in 22 and Ernst will probably just run for his seat and win.

I think that's unlikely. If Ernst loses, she'll probably either go for a rematch with Greenfield in 2026 or else just go straight to being a lobbyist.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA Republican and MT Treasurer still think Ernst and Collins are safe and they both have been down 3 to 5 pts. Just like Rs said WI was an R state and WI now is a D state

[Epaminondas]

Looking forward to everyone saying that Greenfield was a "weak candidate" all the time when she inevitably ends up doing worse than Bullock, Hegar (who loses by 1% or so), and Ossoff (who finishes at 49.5% or something like that) and that they saw it coming all along.

Greenfield is a weak candidate, just like Hickenlooper, Hegar, Ossoff, Cunningham, and all of Schumer's other loser picks this time around. Unfortunately, it's also shaping up to be a massive blue wave.

I think Greenfield will almost certainly outperform Hegar and probably Ossoff, and will likely beat Ernst just on grounds of anger against Trump and demoralized/depressed GOP voter turnout. Not that it matters--Grassley will retire in 22 and Ernst will probably just run for his seat and win.

Wrong avi colour boi.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ignore MT Treasurer and VA R, they both still think Collins is gonna win, Gardner and Collins are DOA

[wbrocks67]

Ernst is her own worst enemy at this point

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1290372362572103682

[WD]

Ernst is her own worst enemy at this point

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1290372362572103682

Lol if the GOP loses this seat, it would be the biggest own goal in a long time.

[Mr. Smith]

Ernst is her own worst enemy at this point

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1290372362572103682

Lol if the GOP loses this seat, it would be the biggest own goal in a long time.

Ironic considering 2014 was won off an own-goal itself.

It does make me wonder if Harkin would be coasting right now if he hadn't retired [sorry, but I don't think he'd have lost to Ernst].

[WD]

Ernst is her own worst enemy at this point

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1290372362572103682

Lol if the GOP loses this seat, it would be the biggest own goal in a long time.

Ironic considering 2014 was won off an own-goal itself.

It does make me wonder if Harkin would be coasting right now if he hadn't retired [sorry, but I don't think he'd have lost to Ernst].

Yeah, Harkin would have beaten Ernst by 2-3, he’d be on track to win by 7-8 now. I bet he regrets retiring lol. But then again he’s old and was probably tired of the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst isnt Collins, Kelly is gonna have a tougher race than polls are suggesting. CO, ME and NC flips while AL goes R. Senate is gonna come down to AZ, IA and GA

[SnowLabrador]

The new poll came out today from Monmouth with Ernst +3. Given that Republicans tend to outperform polling in Iowa, I'd call this race Likely R. Ernst wins by around her 2014 margin.

[wbrocks67]

The new poll came out today from Monmouth with Ernst +3. Given that Republicans tend to outperform polling in Iowa, I'd call this race Likely R. Ernst wins by around her 2014 margin.

This analysis doesn't make sense for multiple reasons, but also that you're taking the word of one poll, instead of going off the average, which still has a minuscule Greenfield lead. There's literally no evidence pointing to Ernst winning by her 2014 margin.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, even if Ernst wins by Kim Reynolds' margin or so (which I’d say is more likely than not, although not a foregone conclusion), people admittedly had a point about her not being an extremely strong candidate who would substantially outperform Trump or whatever. Even if she’s not weak enough to underperform Trump by more than 1-2 points or so, she’s certainly lucky that IA really started shifting to the right when she first ran statewide.

It’s probably a little like MI-SEN, where Peters' individual strengths as a candidate may have been overhyped and he owes his lead mostly to the national environment and Biden's lead in the state. Maybe motorcycle retail politicking is overrated, after all.