Ohio redistricting thread

[Sol]

Torie, I think your OH-07 is illegal. Every district has to either be entirely contained within a single county or include at least one whole county. OH-07 only has parts of three different counties.

Right you are! I can't get away with anything with you guys!

Well, the gerrymander light will need to get a little less light then. I am going to punish the Dems for forcing me to follow this stupid law, and then punish them some more. I have a plan!

Sol or somebody started this by whining about severing Trumbull from Mahoning (that is legal isn't it?), and one thing leads to another and then another. OH-14 has some surplus Pubs, and it is time to put them to work! 

Cmon man, I was criticizing Kwabbit's fair map--if your priority is partisan advantage go to town!

[kwabbit]

I don't think the Youngstown area belongs with Lake County.

Yeah it doesn't, I'm trying to rearrange it. Ohio's population distribution forces one to either choose compactness or COI interests. Happens with Cleveland, Akron, and Youngstown all being close and then with Cincinnati and Dayton in the same area.

[Torie]

Torie, I think your OH-07 is illegal. Every district has to either be entirely contained within a single county or include at least one whole county. OH-07 only has parts of three different counties.

Right you are! I can't get away with anything with you guys!

Well, the gerrymander light will need to get a little less light then. I am going to punish the Dems for forcing me to follow this stupid law, and then punish them some more. I have a plan!

Sol or somebody started this by whining about severing Trumbull from Mahoning (that is legal isn't it?), and one thing leads to another and then another. OH-14 has some surplus Pubs, and it is time to put them to work! 

Cmon man, I was criticizing Kwabbit's fair map--if your priority is partisan advantage go to town!

Just kidding. Your comments always have substance. It is just a matter as to what is least bad, and what the Pubs might do, that won't blow up in their face, since they have the upper hand as another exercise. I like personally the map that splits Mahoning and Trumbell the best, because it has compensating advantages, and makes OH-07 very competitive, but there are always options.

[kwabbit]

Guys stop fighting! I think there's something we can all agree on with Ohio redistricting: that Columbus' precincts are a serious affront to humanity.

[kwabbit]

Alright so I followed your suggestions. The Columbus suburban district is centered to the East instead of the West. Lake and Youngstown are not paired now. So now the Akron district now has an R tilt and Columbus Suburban District has a D tilt. Sadly, a lot more county splits.

The overall Dem seat count went from 5.36 on average to 5.44. The Dems are just horribly distributed. There's a strong chance that a fair map could end up with 3 Dems in a neutral year.

[Torie]

Well with the legalities out of the way ... until the next one pops up! Again this map is based on 2020 census estimates.

[Sol]

I know you're drawing from a more partisan-inflected perspective, but NW Ohio on your map seems pretty on point from a nonpartisan perspective too

Ohio folks--is Toledo a better fit with areas to the west, or with Sandusky and environs?

[Nyvin]

I know you're drawing from a more partisan-inflected perspective, but NW Ohio on your map seems pretty on point from a nonpartisan perspective too

Ohio folks--is Toledo a better fit with areas to the west, or with Sandusky and environs?

Lucas and Wood should always be together IMO - a big chunk of the metro area crosses the county border.

Beyond that probably doesn't matter much.

Although I gotta say I love how these six counties almost perfectly make up a district and then Lorain + Cuyahoga can make up almost exactly two.   (Yeah I know, most likely won't happen...)

[S019]

Given the fact that a vulnerable west Cleveland seat seems unavoidable, I see no reason to not just keep the Toledo to West Cleveland sink and that means Akron can't support a competitive seat anymore either, and thus Ryan would be DoA. Keeping a competitive seat in NE Ohio gives Ryan a chance to return, keeping the Toledo sink for at least one more decade has to be a more preferable option for OH Republicans. Basically once those deep blue west Cleveland precincts are out of the way, you can easily put Akron in with red areas, and you end up with 1 Safe D and 1 Safe R seat rather than the 2 tossup seats that are being proposed in this thread.

the snake by the lake can't remain

And most of the West Cleveland maps where you split Cuyahoga in 3 in this board are putting Lakewood with the district when Lakewood should really go with the Cleveland "sink" in either a fair map/GOP map. You can get the district to around Trump +9 with some just moderate tinkering.

Gonzalez lives in Rocky River, Lakewood basically has to go with Gonzales' seat, unless you're splitting Fairview Park and splitting such a small town makes no sense for this purpose.

[Torie]

I needed to correct some population errors that I found in my spreadsheet, but this Pub light gerrymander map is actually a pretty good map to my eyes (e.g., the populations work out very well to facilitate clean lines, particularly in NE Ohio), outside of the partisan location of the cut into Hamilton, and of course switching out of Fairfield from OH-15 to OH-12, which snatches a CD away from the Dems, unless the Trump malaise in the Columbus area keeps the Dem trends going out into the future. But for a few years, it should do the trick for them.

[S019]

I needed to correct some population errors that I found in my spreadsheet, but this Pub light gerrymander map is actually a pretty good map to my eyes (e.g., the populations work out very well to facilitate clean lines, particularly in NE Ohio), outside of the partisan location of the cut into Hamilton, and of course switching out of Fairfield from OH-15 to OH-12, which snatches a CD away from the Dems, unless the Trump malaise in the Columbus area keeps the Dem trends going out into the future. But for a few years, it should do the trick for them.

I am sure that Columbus tri-cuts are illegal under the rules

[palandio]

Attempt at a rule-conforming R Gerrymander assuming all R incumbent run again:

Since Cuyahoga will contain the Cleveland-based D sink and R incumbents Joyce and Gonzalez both live in Cuyahoga, the map's only tri-partition will occurr there and not in Franklin.

Districts by 2016 results:
1 (Chabot, Wenstrup): Clinton +11.9
2 (Wenstrup would have to move there): Trump +32.4
3 (Beatty): Clinton +42.7
4 (Jordan): Trump +31.4
5 (Latta, Kaptur): Trump +6.0
6 (Johnson): Trump +34.7
7 (Gibbs): Trump +10.0
8 (Davidson): Trump +42.8
9 (Gonzalez): Trump +9.4 [Includes Rocky River]
10 (Turner): Trump +11.1
11 (Fudge): Clinton +60.7
12 (Balderson): Trump +27.6
13 (Ryan): Trump +15.5
14 (Joyce): Trump +9.5 [Includes Richmond Heights]
15 (Stivers): Trump +11.6

Chabot and Ryan are in big trouble, Latta and Kaptur must fight with Latta favored. Possible weak spots for the Republicans are in the 14th and particularly the 15th.

[Torie]

Below is the Ohio law on drawing CD lines. The operative words that would pertain  to Columbus are "significant portion." The map above obviously complies with that stricture. It is very difficult to do better than this map given a chop into Franklin must be a contiguous one, and the city literally bisects the county, going from the north line to within a few feet of the south line. I actually tried to keep as much of OH-12 and OH-15 out of the city as reasonably possible without making the map look ludicrous. As it is, 84% of OH-03 is within the city as defined to include surrounded areas. This law was obviously written with the Franklin and Columbus situation specifically in mind.

(B) A congressional district plan shall comply with all of the following requirements:
(1) The plan shall comply with all applicable provisions of the constitutions of Ohio and the United States and of federal law, including federal laws protecting racial minority voting rights.
(2) Every congressional district shall be compact.
(3) Every congressional district shall be composed of contiguous territory, and the boundary of each district shall be a single nonintersecting continuous line.
(4) Except as otherwise required by federal law, in a county that contains a population that exceeds the congressional ratio of representation, the authority drawing the districts shall take the first of the following actions that applies to that county:
(a) If a municipal corporation or township located in that county contains a population that exceeds the congressional ratio of representation, the authority shall attempt to include a significant portion of that municipal corporation or township in a single district and may include in that district other municipal corporations or townships that are located in that county and whose residents have similar interests as the residents of the municipal corporation or township that contains a population that exceeds the congressional ratio of representation.In determining whether the population of a municipal corporation or township exceeds the congressional ratio of representation for the purpose of this division, if the territory of that municipal corporation or township completely surrounds the territory of another municipal corporation or township, the territory of the surrounded municipal corporation or township shall be considered part of the territory of the surrounding municipal corporation or township.
(b) If one municipal corporation or township in that county contains a population of not less than one hundred thousand and not more than the congressional ratio of representation, that municipal corporation or township shall not be split. If that county contains two or more such municipal corporations or townships, only the most populous of those municipal corporations or townships shall not be split.
(5) Of the eighty-eight counties in this state, sixty-five counties shall be contained entirely within a district, eighteen counties may be split not more than once, and five counties may be split not more than twice. The authority drawing the districts may determine which counties may be split.
(6) If a congressional district includes only part of the territory of a particular county, the part of that congressional district that lies in that particular county shall be contiguous within the boundaries of the county.
(7) No two congressional districts shall share portions of the territory of more than one county, except for a county whose population exceeds four hundred thousand.
(8 ) The authority drawing the districts shall attempt to include at least one whole county in each congressional district. This division does not apply to a congressional district that is contained entirely within one county or that cannot be drawn in that manner while complying with federal law.

[Idaho Conservative]

A R incumbent protection map.  All the districts except the 3 Cs are at least Trump+10 (so right of the state as a whole) and every Republican incumbent lives in their seat except Wenstrup, due to Cinci not being cracked.  While Chabot has an unfavorable Clinton+9 seat, district 9 is a great pick up opportunity for Republicans, being Trump+16.  Chabot could even win in 2022, but probably not beyond that.  2022 could end up being 13-2, but then it should become 12-3 in most years.  This map also shores up Balderson, Stivers, and Turner.

[Former President tack50]

My attempt at a fair-ish map, although it could also be seen as a light D gerrymander since I've tended to take decisions that benefit dems for the most part



https://davesredistricting.org/join/5be92b90-47cd-4243-8612-39e0add221a9

OH-01 (Cincinnati): Clinton+11, D+3
OH-02 (Cincinnati suburbs): Trump+33, R+18
OH-03 (Columbus): Clinton+36, D+16 (27% black)
OH-04 (Northeast Ohio): Trump+41, R+17
OH-05 (West lake shore, Toledo): Clinton+3, D+4
OH-06 (East rural Ohio): Trump+37, R+14
OH-07 (Canton & Youngstown): Trump+17, R+5
OH-08 (West rural Ohio):  Trump+46, R+20
OH-09 (West Cleveland Suburbs): Clinton+1, D+1
OH-10 (Dayton): Trump+11, R+6
OH-11 (Cleveland): Clinton+61, D+29 (48% black)
OH-12 (North Columbus suburbs): Trump+2, R+3
OH-13 (Akron): Clinton+1, D+1
OH-14 (Northeast Ohio): Trump+15, R+4
OH-15 (Southeast Rural Ohio): Trump+40, R+14

[lfromnj]

My attempt at a fair-ish map, although it could also be seen as a light D gerrymander since I've tended to take decisions that benefit dems for the most part



https://davesredistricting.org/join/5be92b90-47cd-4243-8612-39e0add221a9

OH-01 (Cincinnati): Clinton+11, D+3
OH-02 (Cincinnati suburbs): Trump+33, R+18
OH-03 (Columbus): Clinton+36, D+16 (27% black)
OH-04 (Northeast Ohio): Trump+41, R+17
OH-05 (West lake shore, Toledo): Clinton+3, D+4
OH-06 (East rural Ohio): Trump+37, R+14
OH-07 (Canton & Youngstown): Trump+17, R+5
OH-08 (West rural Ohio):  Trump+46, R+20
OH-09 (West Cleveland Suburbs): Clinton+1, D+1
OH-10 (Dayton): Trump+11, R+6
OH-11 (Cleveland): Clinton+61, D+29 (48% black)
OH-12 (North Columbus suburbs): Trump+2, R+3
OH-13 (Akron): Clinton+1, D+1
OH-14 (Northeast Ohio): Trump+15, R+4
OH-15 (Southeast Rural Ohio): Trump+40, R+14

Its ok but not fully represenative of COI's. After seeing the 2020 pop numbers Lorain  + Cuyahoga as 2 districts won't really work out which is why one should split it into 3. And along with that Lorain isn't fully a Cleveland suburban area so its not a perfect fit although It can still very reasonably be kept with Cuyahoga.

Also youngstown and Warren really have to be kept together.

[AGA]

No idea how legal this is, but I made a 2-13 map based on 2018 population. The closest R district, district 8, was Trump +13 in 2016.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/08b4de36-dabf-47e1-8a02-d4278a9def01

[Torie]

No idea how legal this is, but I made a 2-13 map based on 2018 population. The closest R district, district 8, was Trump +13 in 2016.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/08b4de36-dabf-47e1-8a02-d4278a9def01

Other than the VRA violation for black packing the Cleveland CD with a very  non compact CD, perhaps you might try to list the rest of your legal violations with your map as a mental exercise. Or perhaps not.  As was pointed out to me a couple of times, I crossed the line myself a couple of times.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351688.msg7849710#msg7849710

[Torie]

I needed to correct some population errors that I found in my spreadsheet, but this Pub light gerrymander map is actually a pretty good map to my eyes (e.g., the populations work out very well to facilitate clean lines, particularly in NE Ohio), outside of the partisan location of the cut into Hamilton, and of course switching out of Fairfield from OH-15 to OH-12, which snatches a CD away from the Dems, unless the Trump malaise in the Columbus area keeps the Dem trends going out into the future. But for a few years, it should do the trick for them.

Here is a bit less light Pub gerrymander that moves OH-12 further into a Pub safe harbor that is more likely to protect it for the decade, and smooths out the line to boot. It moves OH-12 out of its Columbus metro area nest however, that seems not to get too much blow back in the public square, at least perhaps if done in small morsels where it smooths out the lines.

[palandio]

If you draw R gerrymanders, shouldn't you all try to keep one R seat per R incumbent instead of double-bunking them. They won't be happy!

For an overview on the locations of their homes take a look at my map obove with the red and blue stars.

[kwabbit]

No idea how legal this is, but I made a 2-13 map based on 2018 population. The closest R district, district 8, was Trump +13 in 2016.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/08b4de36-dabf-47e1-8a02-d4278a9def01

Other than the VRA violation for black packing the Cleveland CD with a very  non compact CD, perhaps you might try to list the rest of your legal violations with your map as a mental exercise. Or perhaps not.  As was pointed out to me a couple of times, I crossed the line myself a couple of times.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351688.msg7849710#msg7849710

I don't think Cleveland have an illegal VRA pack. The most Black seat you can make isn't even a majority, so if anything it should be as packed as possible.

[palandio]

The most common conception of a performing Black VRA district seems to be that
1. Black voters need to be a clear majority in the D primary (or hypothetically the R primary) so that they can elect a (Black or non-Black) candidate of their choice in the primary,
2. together with non-Black D voters the district has to be likely/safe D (or R) in a general election as long as Black voters vote overwhelmingly D.

A district that fulfills both conditions can be drawn entirely within Cuyahoga county and including all of Cleveland. Therefore there is no need to violate the Ohio redistricting rules cited by Torie, in particular the one that says that a district should either include at least one whole county or be contained in one county.

[Torie]

If you draw R gerrymanders, shouldn't you all try to keep one R seat per R incumbent instead of double-bunking them. They won't be happy!

For an overview on the locations of their homes take a look at my map obove with the red and blue stars.

Two of the three Pub incumbents can be accommodated without messing up the map much (assuming the guy in Holmes is near the OH-05 line). The double bunk with the guy in Muskegon cannot, so that guy needs to move to Canton. Messing up a map to accommodate an incumbent  because he or she won't move their sorry butt is a no go in my world.

[Torie]

The most common conception of a performing Black VRA district seems to be that
1. Black voters need to be a clear majority in the D primary (or hypothetically the R primary) so that they can elect a (Black or non-Black) candidate of their choice in the primary,
2. together with non-Black D voters the district has to be likely/safe D (or R) in a general election as long as Black voters vote overwhelmingly D.

A district that fulfills both conditions can be drawn entirely within Cuyahoga county and including all of Cleveland. Therefore there is no need to violate the Ohio redistricting rules cited by Torie, in particular the one that says that a district should either include at least one whole county or be contained in one county.

Well said. The packing with a BCVAP over 50% due to erose lines is clearly illegal. Doing it where less than 50%, but clearly performing without the erosity, is a grey zone, but in all events bad policy, in my opinion.

[S019]

Fair-ish map I guess, more of a very light GOP gerrymander, but whatever


https://davesredistricting.org/join/f0acdedc-4596-44d7-8ae1-bd171342fecc

I think the possibility of a Franklin/Delaware seat is underrated especially since Democrats can push for a commission if they don't get the concessions that they want, and it's tough to justify tri cuts of Franklin for any reason other than partisanship, when you can get neat cuts like this.