French presidential election, 2022

[Logical]

Effortpost.

I was under the impression Pecresse was more on the right of the party than on the NKM, Bertrand side.

It will be interesting to see if Macron leans into the left again in his campaign this time round or whether he tries to point to his record in government in order to appeal to the right.  Both carry risks for the second round of course.

I'm not that familiar but I get the impression she's on the left of the party - she called for Fillon to step down in 2017 (though that's not strictly a left/right thing) and criticised Wauquiez for being too close to the far right. May be wrong though.

Pécresse is not in the party anymore, she left in 2019 to create her own party, Soyons Libres, because she thinks the party is too right-wing right now, refuses to consider green issues, has abandoned the values of the UMP and voted against some common sense reforms made by Macron (mainly on university and railroad reforms).

And yet she has a chance to be LR's candidate... 

The French party system is like fractal geometry or something. You know, the closer you look, the more ridiculous and complex and nonsensical it becomes.

Kremlinologists are analysts who found French politics too difficult to comprehend.

[Logical]

I voted earlier today, after a very long line-up which took an hour and a half to get through. Cookies for anyone who can guess who I voted for.

Vote Blanc?

[Logical]

Turnout at 12pm is 3% lower than 2017. I think it'll end up just a little bit over 70%.
https://twitter.com/2022Elections/status/1513097213823569925

[Logical]

Turnout in the banlieus is way down.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513177996827545600

[Logical]

LMAO at Pecresse and Hidalgo

[Logical]

How is Le Pen doing so well in Mayotte? Aren't most of the population black Muslims?

[Logical]

Is it at all possible the exit poll is wrong and he passes Le Pen?

Very unlikely, but there is one huge unknown, the expatriate vote. If they somehow break for Melenchon massively instead of Macron it is possible.

[Logical]

In the end, the expat vote should bring Macron up a bit further, and Le Pen down quite a bit. Mélenchon will also go down but probably not as much as Le Pen. Zemmour should hopefully go down, although I'm honestly not sure - I could see a lot of expats who fit his loathsome profile. Pécresse should go up, but hopefully not enough to cross 5%. Jadot and Hidalgo might go up very slightly as well.

Miami is perpetually disappointing, though only 10k voters.

Zemmour doing well in Tel Aviv. Probably his best result anywhere in the world.
https://twitter.com/julienbahloul/status/1513246914912919556

[Logical]

Is there anyplace to get results by constituency?  (That is, a bit more fine-detailed than by departement, yet not as unwieldy to parse as by commune)

I don't think those exist. Best website I found is this.
https://resultats-elections.lavoixdunord.fr/presidentielle/2022/?p=compare
It has 2017 results for comparison.

[Logical]

Detailed support patterns for each candidate. Can someone explain Le Pen's strength in northern Gironde?
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/presidentielle-2022-decouvrez-la-physionomie-du-vote-par-commune-20220410

[Logical]

[Logical]

Can someone find me the link of the crowd in reunion chanting Allahu Akbar in favour of Le Penn in reunion ?

Can't find that specific moment but this one's close enough.
https://twitter.com/Alexsulzer/status/1472176164823261186

Bonus
https://twitter.com/loicbesson/status/1471346181909495820

[Logical]

Out of curiosity do we even know if the overseas results are actually accurate? Isn’t kinda early to be getting results?

Some parts of Overseas France voted yesterday and the ballots were counted immediately. These results are usually leaked to the Belgian media.

[Logical]

Such a boring, predictable result. It would've been more exciting and psephologically interesting had Meluche made it to the second round.