Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

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ETS?

Emissions Trading System

Is it basically an Aussie Cap-n-Trade?

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Am I correct in the following assumptions?

• Australia uses a system of Alternative Vote to elect MP's
• The next election will be fought on new boundaries (i.e not the seats contested in 2007)

• The main parties are: Labour, Liberals, Greens

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• Voting in Australia is compulsory

There's the Nationals too, right?

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Galaxy poll out today shows almost exactly the same result as that Nielsen poll from last week:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/18/2956855.htm?section=justin

Primary vote:

Coalition 42%
Labor 39%
Greens 13%

2 party preference:

Labor 52%
Coalition 48%

How reliable does Australian polling tend to be? Is it safe to say that the ALP will more than likely get reelected?

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Newspoll 16-18 Jul 2010

ALP - 42 (nc)
Lib - 34 (-4)
Nat - 4 (+1)
Green - 12 (+2)
Other - 8 (nc)

2PP -
ALP - 55 (+2)
Lib/Nat - 45 (-2)

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When's the debate?

Also, a 17-18 July Galaxy poll has the parties at 50-50 (a Lib win) on 2PP. So 50-50 or 55-45, which is more reliable?

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I've never known a more overused election slogan.

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Who "won" the debate?

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54-46 to Labor from the latest AC Nielsen, but Labor's getting destroyed in Queensland.

State-by-state calculator results

87-60 seats

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Neilsen
52-48 to the Coalition.

Uh-oh.

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Newspoll has it at 50-50, Kevin Rudd didn't even hit that low on Newspoll.

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http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/gillards-a-total-failure-says-howard-20100805-11kx0.html

You're really calling the kettle black there, John.

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Are we still all pretty sure that Labor will win? I'm not.

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Are we still all pretty sure that Labor will win? I'm not.

Sure? No, certainly not. The polls are close (another out today has a small Coalition lead, fwiw) after all. But incumbency can be a major advantage in Australia and, as such, Labor are clearly more likely to win. Say, two out of three or something like that.

What's the new poll? I've only seen a marginals poll showing a 2.7% swing to the coalition today.

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What would happen in the case of a hung parliament in Australia with the 3 INDs and a Green from Tanner's seat? Would there be a pact or is a minority government viable due to the government only falling short of a majority by a handful?

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Newspoll: 52/48 to Labor.

Primary vote:
Coalition 42
Labour 39
Greens 13

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Gillard ambushed by Mark Latham. How awkward.

Galaxy poll
51/49 to Labor

42 Coalition
38 ALP
13 Greens

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Australia's Mori?

Worse; Mori gets it right sometimes. They were *shudders* one of the more accurate companies in the last GE.

Australia's Angus-Reid? Only it's Labor that do insanely well.

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That's true, of course.

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Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

That poll represented 102% of all Australian Opinion?.... Interesting.

53-47...

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That's true, of course.

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Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

That poll represented 102% of all Australian Opinion?.... Interesting.

53-47...

Which translated into seats would be:

Labor - 90
Coalition - 57
Others - 3

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/

On UNS.

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Bob Hawke on the 'boat-people' issue: "We’re all bloody boat people! That’s how we found the place."

Win.

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The Green from Melbourne, should he win, is to go with Labor in the event of a hung parliament.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/bandt-says-he-will-side-with-labor-20100814-12482.html

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http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/08/galaxy-marginal-seat-poll.html

I don't know about Australia, but polls in marginals have been pretty bad in this country, ftr.

Constituency polling tends to be bad the world over. Just look at the polling in some of the US congressional districts.

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Newspoll
2PP: 52-48
Primary vote: 41 (-1) 38 (nc) 14 (+1)

The Coalition's lead on economic trust has fallen from 12% to 1%, possibly due to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeNih2aRZes

Of course, there's also the costing problem they've had.

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Where can I follow the election night on-line? And, more importantly, around what time  should we expect all the drama to take place?

Anyone know of a good live TV stream?

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http://www.skynews.com.au/ will have a live stream, if there's no working stream for ABC on election day. Atleast us UKers won't have to stay up until the early hours like for US elections.