Rudy endorsements are beginning to worry me...

[Mr. Morden]

I don't have any sort of tally, but just from reading the Hotline over the last few months, it seems like both McCain and Romney have a lot more endorsements from establishment types than Giuliani.  But then, there were some questions for a while about how serious Giuliani was about running.  Now that he's made it clear that he *is* running, the endorsements have picked up.

[Mr. Morden]

But Rudy and McCain seem willing to pander to social conservatives and social conservatives will trust Rudy more than McCain.

Most likely true if you're refering to social conservatives who follow politics closely.  However, I'm not yet convinced that that'll be the case among the rank and file.  Giuliani's record on social issues is much easier to attack in 30 second ads.  On the other hand, McCain's heresies against conservative doctrine tend to be a lot more complicated.  Conservatives' main beef with him is that they don't trust his instincts.  They think he's secretly a lot more liberal than his voting record suggests.  It's hard to convince people of that if they're not already convinced.  But it's easy to find clips of both Giuliani and Romney professing their social liberalism, which I assure you will be rerun endlessly on everyone's television screens next January.

[Mr. Morden]

Republicans have nominated the candidate most likely to win in ever election that I can remember since 1964.  Even in 1996, out of all the Republican candidates who ran, Dole stood the best shot of winning (kinda scary)

You really think that McCain would have been a worse general election candidate in '00 than Bush?

[Mr. Morden]

Speaking of endorsements, Romney now has 23 congressional endorsements, which is probably more than either Giuliani or McCain have:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/02/feb_27_romneys.html

The GOP establishment is not lining up behind any one candidate in droves (as it did behind Bush 8 years ago).  It's splitting every which way, but primarily behind Giuliani, McCain, and Romney.

[Mr. Morden]

True...but one has to consider the possibility that Iraq may substantially improve within a year.

Or (more likely IMHO) that American involvement in Iraq will decrease substantially by Nov. '08, and so Americans will no longer care that much about what happens in Iraq.  Bush could end up withdrawing a significant number of troops by then.  In fact, he might have to, if Murtha succeeds in attaching conditions to the war funding that Bush won't accept.  What happens then?

I just think way too many people on this forum are reading too much into the political trends of the last year, assuming that everything is going to continue in that direction in a straight line.  We have no idea what's going to happen a year and a half from now.  You can't predict a presidential election a year and a half in advance.  That's not to say that every candidate has an equal shot.  There are some who would certainly be favored over others.  But saying that you can predict with absolute certainty how every single potential matchup would play out is foolhardy.