Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

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There appears to be an odd discrepancy between what DDHQ and the Journal are reporting.

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If lines are as long as these anecdotes imply, possible that voting will not end until hours after the official closure time.

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I know Karofsky raised a massive amount for this race, any idea how she spent it? Wouldn't be surprised if a huge chunk went to getting as many ballots mailed in Milwaukee as possible.

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Does the Wisconsin recall law extend to Supreme Court justices as well? If liberals wanted to play hardball they'd be thinking hard about that right now.

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https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1249834104348123137?s=20

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Is there anything stopping the local governments of Madison and Milwaukee from mailing ballots to every registered voter the way those other cities did? If no, seems like a no-brainer.

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Vos won’t lose, but he’s acting a bit freaked out:

https://twitter.com/sam_wunderle/status/1319786776303722497?s=21

What are the voting patterns in his district like?

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Am hearing through the grapevine that Ron Kind has been polling the Lt Gov race.

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Plenty of reasons for Kind to go for Lt Gov:

1) Barnes will be tough to beat in the Senate primary and his being on the GE ticket can take care of Milwaukee turnout.

2) The Lt Gov race is wide open - Kind would clear the primary field and add regional and ideological balance to the ticket. He can be deployed to cover the driftless/Eau Claire area during the campaign and would be a strong, well-connected fundraiser.

3) Running on a statewide ticket with Evers (who is popular) probably easier than holding down his district post-redraw.

4) Well-positioned for gubernatorial run in 2026 if Evers retires if he wants it.

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State Sen. Lena Taylor is running for the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor. She's a notable Barnes foe and has a spotty electoral history.

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I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

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I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

Yes, it is.

Seems like there's a very real possibility of a general election lockout given the dynamic of the four candidates currently announced.

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I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

Yes, it is.

Seems like there's a very real possibility of a general election lockout given the dynamic of the four candidates currently announced.

Which party will be shut out?

I'm wondering this as well.

It looks like there are two liberals and two conservatives currently running - could be either one if turnout is imbalanced, and one is clearly at high risk if a third candidate gets in.

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I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

Yes, it is.

Seems like there's a very real possibility of a general election lockout given the dynamic of the four candidates currently announced.

Which party will be shut out?

I'm wondering this as well.

It looks like there are two liberals and two conservatives currently running - could be either one if turnout is imbalanced, and one is clearly at high risk if a third candidate gets in.

Whose at higher risk?

Not sure I worded that last post clearly - assuming both parties are competing for roughly half of the vote because this is Wisconsin, a third liberal getting in makes it easier for the two conservatives to advance with a quarter of the vote each (or vice versa).

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https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1610283003917246465?s=20&t=zF0mLcF5Ksx...

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1610285956028059649?s=20&t=zF0mLcF5Ksx...

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Am seeing this picking up a lot of steam in Wisconsin circles.

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1618609628874416128?s=20&t=lgoPN0L1jz6...

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Underrated factor here (especially in an officially nonpartisan race) is the last name "Protasiewicz" having a non-negligible effect with lower-information voters who are first and second generation Europeans - of which there are many in the upper midwest.

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My party’s base makes worse decisions in primaries than a random group of chimpanzees from the zoo would.

Looks like they dodged a massive bullet in the State Senate District 8 primary, fwiw.

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The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

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The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Thats excellent but they should have a turnout operation in every county. No county should be ignored.

Good idea in theory and morally, but with the way trends are going in most Wisconsin counties there's a good argument to be made that this hurts WisDems in the longrun more than it helps.

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The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Thats excellent but they should have a turnout operation in every county. No county should be ignored.

Good idea in theory and morally, but with the way trends are going in most Wisconsin counties there's a good argument to be made that this hurts WisDems in the longrun more than it helps.

I disagree. I heard turnout in Eau Claire was three times as high as in November, That could have made a difference in the Senate election if it was combined with similar turnout rates in other college towns.

Georgia Dems have a turnout operation in every county. There is no reason Wisconsin can't.

Georgia Dems can afford to do this because the trends in their favor in the state drastically outweigh the trends against them. Creating a strong turnout infrastructure only serves to benefit them in the longrun, without question.

Wisconsin's countervailing trends are the exact opposite and is the reason WisDems need a different kind of turnout operation. If a person votes once, they are more likely to vote a second time. If they vote a second time, they are even more likely to vote a third time. If they vote a third time, they are even MORE likely to vote a fourth time, and so on. And they become even easier to turn out in an irregular/off-year election as this pattern develops. This is functionally what "building a turnout operation/infrastructure" means, and it's not something you want to create in an area where the voters you are forming those habitual, long-term voting habits with are quickly turning against you, especially in a state as evenly divided as this one. In practice, for example, you could argue that the behemoth suburban turnout machines that the GOP built during the Clinton/Bush years are major contributors to their struggles today.

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Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

I would guess the Republican is narrowly favored, but like Spectator said, Democrats do really well in special elections in Wisconsin. They won both WI-01 and WI-10 during the Trump years in special elections. The reason I'm going with the Republican here is that while this is an area that is trending to the left, its still an area where Republicans turn out to vote at a solid clip. Much better than the NE or NW Wisconsin.

It's trending Dem but still one of the most polarized seats in the state - Michels and Vukmir both carried it - so turnout would have to be massively in Dems' favor (which isn't impossible).

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Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

I would guess the Republican is narrowly favored, but like Spectator said, Democrats do really well in special elections in Wisconsin. They won both WI-01 and WI-10 during the Trump years in special elections. The reason I'm going with the Republican here is that while this is an area that is trending to the left, its still an area where Republicans turn out to vote at a solid clip. Much better than the NE or NW Wisconsin.

It's trending Dem but still one of the most polarized seats in the state - Michels and Vukmir both carried it - so turnout would have to be massively in Dems' favor (which isn't impossible).

It’s a suburban seat so it’s not really that polarized. Yes it’s redder downballot but Michels actually did worse than Trump here. Knodl is favored but an upset is not out of the picture.

"Polarized" gets thrown around a lot these days in misleading, exaggerated, and/or wholly incorrect contexts but functionally means that crossover appeal/swing voting is minimal to nonexistent among an electorate. Trends are one thing (especially suburban trends) but not all suburbs are equal in this realm and this seat is extremely polarized.

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Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

I would guess the Republican is narrowly favored, but like Spectator said, Democrats do really well in special elections in Wisconsin. They won both WI-01 and WI-10 during the Trump years in special elections. The reason I'm going with the Republican here is that while this is an area that is trending to the left, its still an area where Republicans turn out to vote at a solid clip. Much better than the NE or NW Wisconsin.

It's trending Dem but still one of the most polarized seats in the state - Michels and Vukmir both carried it - so turnout would have to be massively in Dems' favor (which isn't impossible).

It’s a suburban seat so it’s not really that polarized. Yes it’s redder downballot but Michels actually did worse than Trump here. Knodl is favored but an upset is not out of the picture.

"Polarized" gets thrown around a lot these days in misleading, exaggerated, and/or wholly incorrect contexts but functionally means that crossover appeal/swing voting is minimal to nonexistent among an electorate. Trends are one thing (especially suburban trends) but not all suburbs are equal in this realm and this seat is extremely polarized.

Dems have won similar races when turnout is favorable to them.

Turnout advantage is how you win a polarized seat.

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https://twitter.com/journalsentinel/status/1640434522041753606?s=46&t=cnaSCf...

This is what you say when you know you're running in a base turnout competition and you don't think you're winning. Odd way of motivating them though - you'd think if the base hates Protasiewicz so much, they'd show up to vote against her on the literal same day as your election.