2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[kireev]

Arizona electorate is 74% white according to MSNBC exit poll (TV).

What was it in 2016?

75%

[kireev]

Look at this about the Edison Research exit poll =In-person interviews on Election Day were conducted at a random sample of 115 polling locations nationwide among 7,774 Election Day voters. The results also include 4,919 interviews with early and absentee voters conducted by phone=

They have way more Election Day voters than Early voters! But should be be the other way around! How can the possible make such an easily avoidable error? We know that more than 100 million people voted early. Did they expect a 250 million turnout or something?

[kireev]

Yeah, CNN seriously over sampled election day voters. 61% of those sampled voted on election day.

Beat you by a second
You're assuming they didn't weight the responses.

Did they weight it? It doesn't anywhere that they did

[kireev]

Yeah, CNN seriously over sampled election day voters. 61% of those sampled voted on election day.

Beat you by a second
You're assuming they didn't weight the responses.

Did they weight it? It doesn't anywhere that they did

I guess we'll have to wait and find out...

[kireev]

Yeah, CNN seriously over sampled election day voters. 61% of those sampled voted on election day.

As long as it's weighted, it's fine.

In addition to them not saying anything about weighting, how would they even know at this point how to weight it? They don't know the election day turnout yet.

[kireev]

Yeah, CNN seriously over sampled election day voters. 61% of those sampled voted on election day.

As long as it's weighted, it's fine.

In addition to them not saying anything about weighting, how would they even know at this point how to weight it? They don't know the election day turnout yet.

Also, looking at the most important issue I would guess that they were not weighted: very low percentage of COVID: people who vote on election day obviously care about it way less. The numbers for economy and racial equality are good: more Republicans and minorities.

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1323758292322144257?s=20

I think it was a test; polls don't close there until 6:00 PM EST.

I also think it's a test because there is no way JoJo did not get a single vote there. Johnson got 3.6% there in 2016. She should be getting at least 1%... dozens of votes.

[kireev]

CNN exit poll says electorate is 65% white, 13% Latino, 12% black.

That also makes sense if they undercut the early vote - Latino's early vote turnout was kinds of weak, I would expect it to be higher on election day.

[kireev]

CNN Exit Poll: 45 College Educated/55 Non College Educated.

No way.

[kireev]

CNN Exit Poll: 45 College Educated/55 Non College Educated.

Is that good?

It's not good or bad, it's just off.

[kireev]

Sullivan 65% to 33% Trump from 71.3% to 24.5%

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/BrockEWTurner/status/1323831891364061185

Looks like election day votes only.

[kireev]

Douglas County in North WI is 100% counted.

Trump +8.5

2016: Hillary +7.5

Does...this include mail-in ballots?

NY times says it's only 61% reported... so...

[kireev]

It looks like Wayne may finally be reporting

FOX has Biden now up by 61K votes, +1.1%

Biden 2,672,896 (49.8%)
Trump 2,611,661 (48.7%)

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/state/michigan

It's clearly time to call MI. Trump has absolutely no path there. Biden is way safer in MI than in AZ, which FOX called already.

[kireev]

Neil Cavuto on FOX News just referenced that others had called it but said that they were not ready to do so yet

Having confidence to project AZ on election night, but not PA now is completely absurd.

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/LibertyHangout/status/1325121347580645380

Nazis not realizing that Trump lost Iowa lmao

Bill Clinton got 3% in IA, 25% in NH, 15% in ME (it voted third)  in 1992. Won all three of the in the general election.

[kireev]

Beyond parody