VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[smoltchanov]

Dean has repudiated DFA's statement.

Dean is a clever man. [sarcasm]Unlike present DFA leadership, which, probably, prefers very liberal and enlightened Gillespie [/sarcasm]

[smoltchanov]

At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by %.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

You clearly don't know what you're talking about if you think a non-incumbent Democrat can (let alone should) win Virginia by double digits in a still fairly racially polarized state. and if you think tthose two scenarios above are the only scenarios that are plausible, then you probably shouldn't even be commenting about politics at all.

Logically, the only other scenario  (except 1 and 2) is Northam winning by more then 3%. But is it likely now

[smoltchanov]

At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by %.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

You clearly don't know what you're talking about if you think a non-incumbent Democrat can (let alone should) win Virginia by double digits in a still fairly racially polarized state. and if you think tthose two scenarios above are the only scenarios that are plausible, then you probably shouldn't even be commenting about politics at all.

Logically, the only other scenario  (except 1 and 2) is Northam winning by more then 3%. But is it likely now

Uh, just as likely as Gillespie winning, yes. Last I checked, Northam still had a small 2 point lead in RCP.

Though frankly if Northam loses this race, Democrats might as well just give Republicans total power in the country. If old geezers want to scream and vote based on culture wars (Confederate statues, Colin Kaepernick, and MS-13, none of which these Republicans will do anything about once elected) so be it. I'll feel no sympathy for them when they lose all their benefits and are boned by whatever austerity measures are passed. In fact, I'll probably be one of the biggest cheerleaders for it.

I understand your feelings, but if that's their priorities - what could be done about it?  Essentially - nothing. I am 60 years old myself and, while being socially liberal, easily understand that social changes of last decades are a sort of Armageddon for many in my (and older) generation. Believe me, 40 years ago almost no one not only couldn't imagine single-sex marriages, but, for 90% of this generation, the very fact of such relations between 2 persons was no less then atrocious. And "Confederation monuments" for almost all Southerners of this generation are as sacral as Jesus himself. After all - Virginia was a Condederate state, wasn't it???  AFAIK American South - it could be populist on economics, but never (or almost never at least) on social issues, and this, in addition to greater reliance of Democratic party on Blacks and other minority voters, was the main reason of "great white exodus" to Republican party, which reflects these feeligs much better now.  And if young people are so apathetic (in some cases - ignorant) about elections and their meaning  - well, let them live with that too. They utterly deserve it. May be - that will finally teach them a lesson, and 10 years from now they will raise their asses from chairs and finally go to the polls.

[smoltchanov]

At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by %.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

The party needed to do some serious soul searching long before they nominated this Bush supporter.

You think an ardent ultraprogressive would surely win Governor race in Virginia? May be even in South Carolina and Alabama too? These states are not California.

P.S. I don't see a very progressive Fairfax doing much better in polls then Northam.

[smoltchanov]

At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by %.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

The party needed to do some serious soul searching long before they nominated this Bush supporter.

You think an ardent ultraprogressive would surely win Governor race in Virginia? May be even in South Carolina and Alabama too? These states are not California.

P.S. I don't see a very progressive Fairfax doing much better in polls then Northam.

Berniebro theory of politics: Always run a progressive in every race and if they fail who cares at least you get to complain because being a berniebro complaining is just as good as governing.

Exactly. An idiocy of highest caliber. That's why i dislike the radical BernieBro's almost as much as alt-right. 2 sides of one medal....

[smoltchanov]

My prediction: Northam, Fairfax and Herring all win by around 3-5 points. Democrats pickup 6-8 seats in the HoD.

My: + 2 - Northam, +3-4 - Herring and very close (about +1-2) - Fairfax. And i agree about HoD...

[smoltchanov]

The VA Dem strategy:

1) Nominate whichever bland sh**theap of a politician that manages to climb to the top of the state establishment, regardless of electability.

2) Pray that the NoVA margins are big enough.

True, but what's an alternative? Nominate "bold progressive"? He/she will lose, it's Virginia, not California. Nominate energetic, but not so popular (after all, he lost the primary to "bland sh**theap") candidate like Perriello? No guaranties it will work better..

[smoltchanov]

The VA Dem strategy:

1) Nominate whichever bland sh**theap of a politician that manages to climb to the top of the state establishment, regardless of electability.

2) Pray that the NoVA margins are big enough.

True, but what's an alternative? Nominate "bold progressive"? He/she will lose, it's Virginia, not California. Nominate energetic, but not so popular (after all, he lost the primary to "bland sh**theap") candidate like Perriello? No guaranties it will work better..

I'm curious: When was the last time a bold progressive got the D nomination for a major election in Virginia, and lost terribly?

Well, long ago. Probably - Henry Howell for Governor in 1977. But the very fact that "bold progressive" isn't usually nominated in Virginia (read - can't win primary) already speaks volumes.