2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[KingSweden]

Right now I'm guessing D+10 in HoD. Not enough, but a good night

[KingSweden]

Still thinking 6-9 gains in the HoD

[KingSweden]

Personally, I think that will be more around 45 seats or maybe a bit more.

Republicans held so many seats because of higher republican turnout, that won't be the case anymore.

Truly the elections I'm the most interested in!

11 seats would be a monster night for Democrats. Realistic, but probably a tad optimistic. Not sure I believe Northam is leading by enough to power a double-digit gain.

[KingSweden]

My ratings:

Likely D pickups: 2,  42
Lean D pickups: 31, 32, 67
Pure tossups: 12, 13, 21, 51
Lean R holds: 10, 72
Likely R holds: 40, 50, 68, 85, 94

I was actually just in HD-12 to see Tim Kaine stump for Chris Hurst, who I think is a very solid candidate as a 30 year-old with a heartbreaking background. I think that one flips if Blacksburg college turnout is where it needs to be, although that's not very reliable, so that's why I think it's a tossup. HD-13 and HD-51 are Prince William County seats that'll flip if Northam's winning the county by 10-15. HD-21 requires strong African-American turnout in VA Beach, and I don't really have a good read on whether that will come to fruition. The early vote is completely meaningless to me.

As for my home district of HD-67, LeMunyon is a very strong incumbent Republican who can survive a decent sized Democratic wave, but Delaney has proven to be a good candidate and fundraised well, so I think she'll win by a small but decisive margin.

Other districts still have a strong Republican DNA, so those don't go down unless Tuesday is a big blue wave. Also HD-50 has a weak Democratic candidate which is why I think it doesn't flip even if it was a big time Clinton district.

My prediction is D+8.

Thank you for your analysis! Always helpful to get a local perspective

[KingSweden]

A one vote margin. You gotta be kidding me. Wow.

[KingSweden]

LimoLiberal found dead in the rain in NoVa

“I bless the raaaaain down in NoooooVaaaaaa

[KingSweden]

How weak of the gop to give up a seat by 1 vote!
No I don’t think this is rigged but there should be a recount.

It's gone.

That picture made me spit my drink out

[KingSweden]

The draw a name out of a bowl thing will only be a formality,  neither candidate will accept the outcome.

Ah wonderful so this’ll drag on forever

[KingSweden]

I’ve never understood how Krazen thinks Democrats exhausting legal remedies that are also available to Republicans is “stealing an election.” I mean, I get it, since he’s an uncritical hack, but seriously get some better material

[KingSweden]

Lawsuit likely?