TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

She has poor judgment if she thinks a Senate candidacy would be better for her than a TX-31 rematch

I'd prefer Julian/Joaquin but I disagree about TX-31. Cruz won that district so it's more like TX as a whole at this point.

[lfromnj]

Texas 31st was right of the state as a whole in the senate race although a Democrat would probably win it while winning statewide as it is also more elastic than Texas as a whole.

[Politician]

Texas senate is Safe D tbh. Texas is rapidly trending blue and Cornyn is a notoriously Weak Incumbent TM who would obviously lose even in a neutral year. Cornyn would be lucky to even carry Brazoria county at this rate.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1120676699363004418

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1120676699363004418

If Castro runs, he'll be the nominee. But I doubt he'll beat Cornyn. He come within five points, but not over the top unless 2020 is a massive Dem tsunami. Cornyn might still outperform Trump.

[ajc0918]

Announcement video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIYHz6fPAgo

Solid IMO.

Also Texas is adding approximately 350K new residents per year, more than any other state. That should help democrats in 2020 given the growth has been concentrated in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1120676699363004418

Excellent! She will have my vote over either Castro.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I’m all in for MJ!

[Zaybay]

I dont really understand the rational behind this move. If Castro does run, there is no way MJ can stop him. This really only makes sense if she has inside information that Castro wont go for it, but it doesnt appear that Castro is backing off.

Oh well, if she wants to get crushed, its her decision .

[NerdyBohemian]

Cornyn is picking a fight with Patton Oswalt on twitter and it is the funniest thing.

[lfromnj]

I dont really understand the rational behind this move. If Castro does run, there is no way MJ can stop him. This really only makes sense if she has inside information that Castro wont go for it, but it doesnt appear that Castro is backing off.

Oh well, if she wants to get crushed, its her decision .

I agree Castro is probably the favorite but her base is Austin which is basically the white liberal area of Texas. White liberals are gonna turnout at a much better rate than Hispanics from San Antonio. Also female+decent fundraiser gives her a decent shot.

[Zaybay]

I dont really understand the rational behind this move. If Castro does run, there is no way MJ can stop him. This really only makes sense if she has inside information that Castro wont go for it, but it doesnt appear that Castro is backing off.

Oh well, if she wants to get crushed, its her decision .

I agree Castro is probably the favorite but her base is Austin which is basically the white liberal area of Texas. White liberals are gonna turnout at a much better rate than Hispanics from San Antonio. Also female+decent fundraiser gives her a decent shot.

That may be true for someone like Beto, but I dont see it applying to Hegar. In such a race, she would be the more Conservative option, having run as a Blue Dog and on a rather Conservative platform back in 2018. Progressive and Liberal Groups would likely side with Castro in such a primary.

[lfromnj]

Anyone want to predict a county map

Probably +- some rural heavily low turnout hispanic like Kenedy
Loses Tarrant and Jefferson but holds onto Williamson.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Anyone want to predict a county map

Probably +- some rural heavily low turnout hispanic like Kenedy
Loses Tarrant and Jefferson but holds onto Williamson.

Tarrant will go Republican in 2020 as Democrats are not gonna have anywhere near the wave they did in 2018. If they do 2020 could be a 2008 style defeat for the GOP as TX and OH may even flip to the Dems in the Presidential Election and in the Senate Races they lose: CO , AZ, NC, IA, GA, ME, TX along with maybe KS and barely take AL

[Brittain33]

Cornyn's campaign Twitter account has only 4,000 followers? I guess it's because it's so early.

[lfromnj]

Anyone want to predict a county map

Probably +- some rural heavily low turnout hispanic like Kenedy
Loses Tarrant and Jefferson but holds onto Williamson.

Tarrant will go Republican in 2020 as Democrats are not gonna have anywhere near the wave they did in 2018. If they do 2020 could be a 2008 style defeat for the GOP as TX and OH may even flip to the Dems in the Presidential Election and in the Senate Races they lose: CO , AZ, NC, IA, GA, ME, TX along with maybe KS and barely take AL

Im doing it from the Beto map aka Hegar wins Williamson but loses Tarrant.

[Brittain33]

Cornyn's campaign Twitter account has only 4,000 followers? I guess it's because it's so early.

This Patton Oswalt thing is stupid but it's entertaining to see a tweet get ratio'd with 40 likes and 1.1k replies.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Anyone want to predict a county map

Probably +- some rural heavily low turnout hispanic like Kenedy
Loses Tarrant and Jefferson but holds onto Williamson.

Tarrant will go Republican in 2020 as Democrats are not gonna have anywhere near the wave they did in 2018. If they do 2020 could be a 2008 style defeat for the GOP as TX and OH may even flip to the Dems in the Presidential Election and in the Senate Races they lose: CO , AZ, NC, IA, GA, ME, TX along with maybe KS and barely take AL

Im doing it from the Beto map aka Hegar wins Williamson but loses Tarrant.

oh then that makes more sense

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MJ Hager will win. GOP and Trump have trouble in Latino states: that's why TX was so close.. The reason why GOP won FL, was due to Rick Scott being popular

[SnowLabrador]

MJ Hager will win. GOP and Trump have trouble in Latino states: that's why TX was so close.. The reason why GOP won FL, was due to Rick Scott being popular

It's silly to think a perennial candidate who's never held elected office can defeat a three-term incumbent Republican Senator, in a red-leaning state, who was Senate Majority Whip last Congress. If anyone's beating Cornyn, it'll be Joaquin Castro, if he runs (which I very much doubt at this point).

[Brittain33]

MJ Hager will win. GOP and Trump have trouble in Latino states: that's why TX was so close.. The reason why GOP won FL, was due to Rick Scott being popular

It's silly to think a perennial candidate who's never held elected office...

How many times has Hegar run for office?!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MJ Hager will win. GOP and Trump have trouble in Latino states: that's why TX was so close.. The reason why GOP won FL, was due to Rick Scott being popular

It's silly to think a perennial candidate who's never held elected office can defeat a three-term incumbent Republican Senator, in a red-leaning state, who was Senate Majority Whip last Congress. If anyone's beating Cornyn, it'll be Joaquin Castro, if he runs (which I very much doubt at this point).

If Joe Biden wins a 2012 style Victory, its possible. However, I doubt Harris can.  

John Kelly never held public office and Beto came within 2 points of beating Cruz. Cruz only won due to Abbott's coattails

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

MJ Hager will win. GOP and Trump have trouble in Latino states: that's why TX was so close.. The reason why GOP won FL, was due to Rick Scott being popular

It's silly to think a perennial candidate who's never held elected office...

How many times has Hegar run for office?!

I think once

[OneJ]

Until further notice, Hegar has my endorsement. 

[QAnonKelly]

MJ Hager will win. GOP and Trump have trouble in Latino states: that's why TX was so close.. The reason why GOP won FL, was due to Rick Scott being popular

The reason TX is getting more competitive isn’t because of Latinos, it’s because they’ve had an influx of educated millennial white voters