Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[McGovernForPrez]

For the hell of it:
Estes - 48%
Thompson - 46%
Rockhold - 6%

I know it probably won't be this close, but I at least have the right to dream for that old western populism to make a resurgence.

[McGovernForPrez]

My prediction is about +15 for Estes. The reason I say this is because of the redness of the district and that poll someone cited earlier of Estes at +24. I also think the Libertarian narrowly misses getting 5% of the vote.

Of course, I could be horribly wrong, but I think with the GOP putting so much into the election in the final days and, like I said before, with the district being pretty red, Estes will win by a large margin.

There's a supposed GOP internal floating around claiming that they saw Estes +1. That +5 poll was from a while back I think.

[McGovernForPrez]

Is there website that will have a live results page for this election?

You can find them at decisiondeskhq.com

[McGovernForPrez]

Stop getting me all excited, people. Now I have to commit to sitting at my computer for the next few hours pressing refresh instead of, you know, eating and doing taxes.

I've missed this high.

It's a really unique feeling. Might as well enjoy it while we can.

[McGovernForPrez]

If this seat is actually even competitive, then Democrats look poised to win control of the House and maybe even (somehow, despite the map) the Senate in the 2018 midterms.

There is a path to winning the senate. It's called forcing out McCaskill for Kander in Missouri, and winning a three-way (McMullin as Indy) in Utah.

Possibly upset Beto in TX? If Thompson wins this I wouldn't rule it out of the realms of possibility.

[McGovernForPrez]

If this seat is actually even competitive, then Democrats look poised to win control of the House and maybe even (somehow, despite the map) the Senate in the 2018 midterms.

There is a path to winning the senate. It's called forcing out McCaskill for Kander in Missouri, and winning a three-way (McMullin as Indy) in Utah.

Possibly upset Beto in TX? If Thompson wins this I wouldn't rule it out of the realms of possibility.

I'll believe it when I see it with TX after Hillary did worse than Obama '08 in terms of % of the vote despite maxing out the urban areas.

Well any Beto win would come from a suburban defection. Also it's not fair to compare Obama's +6 or +7 win to Hillary's +2 win and say she did worse. Relative to national trends she did much better than Barry. Still I'd still say TX is at likely to lean R even of Thompson wins.

[McGovernForPrez]

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Precinct 607 in NW downtown Wichita so far:

2016: Clinton 57%, Trump 31%

Early return today in #KS04: Thompson 85%, Estes 15%

Good lord that's brutal.

[McGovernForPrez]

Is it possible for Sedgwick to carry the district for Thompson all by itself?

I mean it makes up 70% of the votes in this district so I'd say yeah.

[McGovernForPrez]

Before anybody makes any call one way or another, let's remember that Sedgwick is barely reporting anything outside of EV. We won't know what any of this truly means until we see at least a few dozen more precincts from there dump.

It looks like Butler still has 30 precincts left to count too,  it mostly comes down to those two counties.  

Don't forget Harvey County. Thompson is crushing it there.

[McGovernForPrez]

Am I missing something or is everyone missing the fact that Sedgewick appears to be largely out and Thompson is romping there? Even given the Democratic League of early voters, I'm not sure why there's so much pessimism among Democrats right now.

Because of the 2016 Presidential election results.

I feel like as a party, we collectively have PTSD

Yeah, thanks DNC. Such an effective party.

[McGovernForPrez]

Sedgwick is still almost completely out

I'm reminded of election night...

"Miami is still out,"

"Cleveland is still out,"

"Detroit is still out,"

The PTSD is too real...

[McGovernForPrez]

Pratt takes Thompson back up 50-49

There is still hope!!!

[McGovernForPrez]

Yeah, the Democrats are winning the house in 2018. Anyone who disputes that after a result like this is delusional

Possible, but not everywhere has a toxic GOP governor like Brownback.

We still have a toxic president though...

[McGovernForPrez]

I think Thompson has nowhere to go but up from here to be honest. Most of all the rural counties are in. I wonder if the results will narrow back again.

[McGovernForPrez]

the gun thingie is dead in the US anyway, so especially rural dems should be allowed to bury it for good and national dems only use it if it can be used to DO something and not only talking about it.

Or better yet just drop the issue entirely. When was the last time you heard about school uniforms, v-chips, or videogame violence discussed as major, national political issues? Hell, Republicans basically did this with gay issues in 2014-2016 and it seems to have helped them.

Dropping the issue is totally OK, but to a lot of rural voters the stigma of Dems being anti-gun is so entrenched that Democrat's need to fight assure them that they aren't gonna take them away. That's why Kander did so well, and it's probably why Thompson did so well also.

[McGovernForPrez]

Yeah this has got to be the least elastic special election on the roster. I can't see a Dem pickup here. Still worth watching, but expecting much less than the other ones.

[McGovernForPrez]

It's happening!!! A Moore vs Jones is gonna happen!!!