Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Fubart Solman]

What a clusterf[Inks]. Anybody but Fujimori, I guess.

[Fubart Solman]

God, what a mess. I might be supporting a bill vote at this point.

[Fubart Solman]

Are there really Kenji partisans? I figured he was completely finished after he was caught on camera bribing legislators to support PPK. I suppose that even if his political party no longer exists, his past supporters might still be anti-Keiko.

Who even knows at this point? By next election in like a year and four months Kenji Fujimori might be leading the third largest party.

Ah, Peru. Such a fascinating place over the last few years. Unfortunately it’s to the country’s detriment.

[Fubart Solman]

First vote drop in Chile. 2,8% in and Castillo leads 65-35!

Its from Arica which is a border town - might as well be part of Peru!

Well, it was before the 1880s.

[Fubart Solman]

We have first US votes. From New Jersey, break 80-20 for Keiko.

~30% turnout from these stations. Around 75 votes per station cast (there are ~1K stations assigned to the US).

That’s a shockingly high number of stations. I have a friend who has French citizenship and he had to go from the Sacramento area to the Bay Area to vote in the French elections.

[Fubart Solman]

Keiko Fujimori joined the group of leaders who didn't accept the defeat: Aécio Neves, Juan Guaidó, Jeanine Añez and Donald Trump

Guaidó?

Yeah, Guaido never ran in/lost any presidential election. He claims the 2018 election was fraudulent (which is fair) and therefore that the presidency has been vacant since then and that he should be Acting President (since president of legislature is in the line of succession).

Yeah, the biggest difference between Guaido (as well as the woman who ran against Lukashenko) is that the Venezuelan election was almost certainly actually fraudulent.

[Fubart Solman]

Heh, your new username

I’m reveling in how much of a loser she is and always will be.

Great, isn't it?

Yeah, it’s definitely a solid one. Just like her losing margins.

[Fubart Solman]

Though isn't she going to try to string this out for a few months yet?

A few months wouldn’t be possible. A few weeks is more likely, since the regional JEEs and the JNE appear to be taking their sweet time with the challenged votes.

Is there a date when Castillo gets inaugurated?

July 28, the 200th anniversary of independence from Spain.

Thanks to Fujimori Sr for screwing things up so much that things lined up that well for the inauguration date!

[Fubart Solman]

Here's how Keiko Fujimori can still win!

Version 3

[Fubart Solman]

What could be done to imperuve the political situation in Peru? None of the parties have anything resembling even a respectable plurality in parliament and the presidential elections have been between “person who will get impeached” vs “the former dictator’s daughter, who will get impeached.”

Is their election methodology causing this fragmentation or is there something else? Having seen the presidential election results in Peru, Egypt, and France as well as the top-two system in CA, is the top-two runoff with no ranking just a bad idea?

[Fubart Solman]

If we're discussing democratic mandates, then it's worth recalling that Castillo polled 19% of the vote in the first round and won the runoff with a margin of 0.3pts. Enough to be the constitutionally and electorally legitimate President, certainly, but not enough to claim much of a mandate for radical political action let alone radical constitutional tinkering let alone an attempt to pull off an Autogolpe. I would suggest that the whole experience - and, frankly, the whole experience of Peruvian politics over the past few decades,* suggests that an Executive Presidency is not a good idea for the country.

_{*Every single elected President has ended up in prison or ought to have done: Garcia avoided it by topping himself like an Agatha Christie villain and Toledo has been trying to dodge it - but presumably will fail in the end as he lost that case last year - by hiding out in the United States.}

I think that some of the issue is their top-two system. Castillo got about 19% and Keiko Fujimori got about 13.5%, then Peruvians got to pick and, as they did in the previous two elections, Keiko lost by under 1%. I wonder how it would’ve gone if there was an instant runoff system instead.

In a way, Peru’s politics are starting to remind me of Israel’s in the sense that there’s constant turnover, splintering coalitions/parties, and bare majorities either for or against a polarizing figure (Keiko Fujimori vs Bibi Netanyahu).