Washington, D.C. Megathread

[Vega]

I would not think that DC would give Grey another term; but all the polls have him leading in the Democrat Primary. The union support he's getting doesn't hurt either.

Jack Evans is my man; seems like he would make a good mayor.

Also, here is the Marist poll conducted not too long ago:

http://media.nbcbayarea.com/documents/NBC4_WAMU_Washington+Informer_Marist+Poll+Annotated+Questionnaire_February.pdf

[Vega]

I would not think that DC would give Grey another term; but all the polls have him leading in the Democrat Primary. The union support he's getting doesn't hurt either.

Jack Evans is my man; seems like he would make a good mayor.

Also, here is the Marist poll conducted not too long ago:

http://media.nbcbayarea.com/documents/NBC4_WAMU_Washington+Informer_Marist+Poll+Annotated+Questionnaire_February.pdf

That's the tragedy of first past the post, that someone primary voters think by a margin of 63 to 31% does not deserve reelection is likely to win that election.

I had seen the mayoral results from that poll, but some of the other numbers are interesting - thanks for posting the link. Some things that stood out to me:

- President Obama's approval rating among registered voters is 87%.

- 75% think the city is headed in the right direction.

- Gray is the second choice of only 12% of likely primary voters (after Bowser and Evans). So only 40% of likely primary voters even consider Gray as one of their top two choices. Ouch.

- 39% of Democrats are aged 60 and older. (Young people here are extremely transient and unlikely to register to vote here. Evans' natural base would be all the young people who live in the new condos that he pushed excessive and unnecessary tax breaks to encourage developers to build, and yet those people aren't going to be voting.)

- Residents are 47% black, 39% white. That gap continues to shrink.

- The pollster clearly doesn't know D.C. very well based on the question asking where respondents live. D.C. is divided into 4 quadrants (NW, NE, SE, SW), but the assigning of the wards (1 through 8 ) to each quadrant is extremely wrong. Like, terribly wrong. Like, done by someone who didn't even bother to look at a map.

- 78% of primary voters are enthusiastic. I guess so - mayor is the biggest thing we really have here (cough taxation without representation cough)

- It's funny that Gray has a 56/36% job approval rating but an underwater 45/46% personal favorability rating. People think he's unethical but has done a good job for the city. I'd be in that camp.

- Bowser, Evans, and Wells all have similar approval ratings, at around 50/25%. 50% have an unfavorable opinion of Orange, even though he's a citywide elected official. He'll likely be primaried in 2016.

- 41% of Democrats "definitely plan to vote against" Gray in the general election, with only 44% "definitely voting for" him then. Registered voters are split 42/42. Here comes D.C.'s first non-Democratic, first white, and first gay mayor?

- Only 15% of voters feel Gray did nothing wrong (unethical/illegal) in his 2010 campaign.

I feel you; I totally support the Single Transferable Vote. FPTP is horrid.

Thanks for giving the bullet points of that poll; it's funny how only 15% of people think Grey is on the right side of the law.

[Vega]

I think Bowser has managed to put herself ahead of the rest of the not-Gray candidates, and I think you could see people rally around her in the next month for that reason. I'd still put Gray as a favorite to win the primary, I think, but his odds are lower than they were a month ago. I don't think Evans or Wells have a real shot at this point (thank God in the first case; unfortunate in the latter).

Why don't you like Evans? He's one of the most solid people in DC.

[Vega]

Been getting a lot of Evans mailers over the past few weeks. Haven't seen anything from Bowser or anyone else. I live in Ward 6 (Southwest).

Curious, what's the theme of those mailers?

[Vega]

I lived in Georgetown a few years back; which is Ward 2. That's how I became acquainted with Jack Evans.

[Vega]

I wonder how well Catania will do in the election. Can't imagine him winning, and the polls (but they are from March) show him trailing by more than 20 points.

[Vega]

I wonder how well Catania will do in the election. Can't imagine him winning, and the polls (but they are from March) show him trailing by more than 20 points.

Bowser's general election slogan is "Democrat Muriel Bowser," which pretty much tells you everything you need to know. No one is going to beat the Democrat in a general election here barring some obvious flaw in that candidate (and I don't think Bowser's general cluelessness is enough of a flaw).

Yeah.

To be honest, I'm not entirely sure if Bowser is better than Grey. She seems totally, well, as you said, clueless.

[Vega]

Just wait for Mario to run for mayor

If I recall correctly, there was a Mayor of DC named Marion, if that's any consolation.

[Vega]

I wonder how well Catania will do in the election. Can't imagine him winning, and the polls (but they are from March) show him trailing by more than 20 points.

Bowser's general election slogan is "Democrat Muriel Bowser," which pretty much tells you everything you need to know. No one is going to beat the Democrat in a general election here barring some obvious flaw in that candidate (and I don't think Bowser's general cluelessness is enough of a flaw).

Yeah.

To be honest, I'm not entirely sure if Bowser is better than Grey. She seems totally, well, as you said, clueless.

I think I've posted this before, probably in another thread, but the Grey vs .Bowser contest is one of dishonesty vs. mostly honesty but also mostly competence vs. mostly a lack of ideas. I think I actually might prefer Grey. He surrounded himself with dishonest people, but at the end of the day the city has been doing amazingly under his leadership. Bowser doesn't even know whether she supports, well, anything.

I hope that in 4 years, Grey can come back and challenge her in the Primary. He really knew how to run the city.

[Vega]

I can see Catania getting at most 40 percent.

[Vega]

I can see Catania getting at most 40 percent.

I agree, labor, Democratic-alligned groups, etc. will pull out the strings for Bowser. I'm sure she'll get some sort of Clinton, Obama, Biden, etc. robo call and mailer..

Eh. DC is sapphire blue. Those mailers and robo calls are only the icing on the cake.

[Vega]

Prediction

Bowser (D): 54%
Catania (I): 38%

At-Large:
Bonds and Silverman

What are yours?

That sounds about right, except I might be tempted to say White rather than Silverman.

Interesting. Kenyan McDuffie's endorsement of White, I thought, would ultimately hurt Bonds, siphoning away some reliable Democrats in Ward 5 who might not have considered Silverman anyway.

I think White will win, too. But it'll be interesting. I haven't exactly read up on the At Large races to the best degree.

[Vega]

That was unexpected. Doubt it'll actually help Catania, though.

[Vega]

That was unexpected. Doubt it'll actually help Catania, though.

Yeah, has anyone outside of Vermont even heard of Shumlin?

Even if they did, he doesn't really relate with D.C. at all. Vermont and D.C. are pretty much as opposite as you can get for states who both voted for Obama in 2012.

[Vega]

You need to learn to use the edit button.

I kid. But yeah, Catania isn't that bad. Obama of course isn't going to break ranks with about 90% of the Democratic Party and back someone else, though.

[Vega]

Nowhere 90% of D.C. Democrats are going to vote for Bowser. I'd be surprised if she breaks 50%.

I mean 90%, if not more, of the establishment Democratic party. Not the voters. Probably should have made that clearer.

[Vega]

My earlier prediction, that Anita Bonds (D) would keep her at-large seat and Elissa Silverman (I) and Robert White (I) would be the contenders for the other at-large seat, is supported by a poll Silverman discussed at a campaign event of hers I attended last week. She said her(?) poll showed Bonds in first place with something like 25%, her in second in the high teens or so, and White in third in the low teens, or something like that.

Is there any reason for the lack of polls in DC council races? Or is it just that I don't see them?

[Vega]

If Catania looses by a respectable margin (2-6 points), what will his future hold?

[Vega]

I thought Catania would do a wee bit better. Maybe crack 40%.

[Vega]

Here is a map of the election; shades of green are Catania, shades of blue are Bowser.



Bowser won by winning alot of the predominantly black precincts that she lost in the primary. She completely swept the eastern part of the district, too.

[Vega]

Except how did Bowser win the West End/Foggy Bottom? High Schwartz vote?

That, and low voter turnout.

Also, sorry about the map. I didn't know about the colors that the campaigns used.

[Vega]

Nutmeg, would you consider renaming this into a megathread?

[Vega]

What is Bowser's stance on rights for Koopas? This is important to me. Was the Koopa vote critical in Bowser's victory?

One of the candidates running to succeed Bowser in her council seat is named Cooper; I kinda hope he gets traction for that alone.

And A.J. Cooper, at the age of 34, actually died today, apparently of a heart attack. He probably was one of the top few candidates in name recognition to succeed Bowser.

RIP, what a shame.