The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1446801867866918915

[Ferguson97]

On the latest episode of “Forward with Andrew Yang” he tells co-host Zach Graumann that he expects a serious third party challenger to emerge this year. Look for it at around the 14:30 minute in the video below.

“There will be a [significant] third party candidate who declares, in all likelihood before the mid-terms, but definitely before year end,” says Yang. “Do I also have a little bit of whispering in the wind coming my way on this? Yeah.”

Yang's pretty much all but announced his candidacy at this point. He's literally got nothing to lose, except maybe his reputation by making it official tomorrow.

Is there really even much of a reputation to ruin?

Kind of impressive that he went from "frontrunner to be in charge of the biggest, most important city in America" to "pariah" in less than a year.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Amy_Siskind/status/1481733475057156099

LOL

[Ferguson97]

Interesting how Harris is now the third Vice President in this century to receive serious speculation about not being on the ticket for reelection. In 2004, Bush and Cheney's personal relationship was starting to tear and since Bush had gone from a 90% approval rating to barely 50% in less than three years' time, his reelection was obviously in doubt. As was Obama's even more so, whom people urged to replace Biden with Clinton (mostly by former Clinton supporters, to be fair) to save his ass. Literally nobody cares about Pence. And now that Biden is in deep trouble right now, he's under pressure to toss Harris aside (or not run at all, for that matter).

You don't remember all the speculation he was going to drop him for Nikki Haley?

In any event, this is just the media stirring sh**t. There is no reason for an incumbent president to drop the VP from the ticket unless there were a massive personal scandal. Why go out of your way to draw negative attention?

[Ferguson97]

I don't know why everyone is pretending there's a chance Trump won't run. Unless they're counting on him dying, none of Cruz/DeSantis et al are going to be running in 2024.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1502812678582059010

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/charlescwcooke/status/1503811773153095690

NPR saying he's gonna do it.

Just announce it already man, put us out of our misery

[Ferguson97]

NPR saying he's gonna do it.

I don't think so.  "NPR reports that Trump wants to run in 2024" is just Charles Cooke's summary in this tweet that links to his own column, whose only mention of NPR is:

"Donald Trump hasn’t said for sure whether he will run in 2024,” reports NPR. “But he’s having a hell of a lot of fun teasing it.”

That column links to this NPR story: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/14/1086313468/braving-rain-and-cold-trumps-supporters-soak-up-hints-of-another-run

Which doesn't include any original content about Trump's intentions.  It's just the same stuff that's already been reported, about how he's dropping hints.

Trump seems to be teasing a run in 2024, but he always likes to tease things. But is he taking any steps about actually being serious about following through in 2024?

Isn't he deliberately putting off the actual decision as long as possible for campaign finance purposes?

[Ferguson97]

I really struggle with people who don't think he'll run; literally everything he's said and done indicates he will, and based on everything we know about his compulsive need to be in the public eye and to be number one, it's impossible to imagine him bowing out. The only way I see him not running is if his health takes a drastic downturn (unlikely; he seems frustratingly spry for his age + BMI) or he's barred from running for whatever reason.

I honestly think it's just a cope from people who don't want him to run.

[Ferguson97]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/20/sanders-president-2024/

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is open to running for president in 2024 if President Biden declines to seek reelection, according to a campaign memo a top political adviser distributed to allies on Wednesday that was shared with The Washington Post.

“In the event of an open 2024 Democratic presidential primary, Sen. Sanders has not ruled out another run for president, so we advise that you answer any questions about 2024 with that in mind,” says the memo from Faiz Shakir, a close Sanders adviser who was his campaign manager when he ran in 2020.

The memo was shared by a person with direct knowledge of its contents on the condition of anonymity because it was not released publicly, and confirmed by a second person with direct knowledge of the contents.

[Ferguson97]

Meanwhile, here’s Youngkin:

https://dailycaller.com/2022/04/21/glenn-youngkin-2024-national-profile/

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is looking to raise his national profile by establishing two new political groups in the aftermath of becoming the first Republican to win statewide in over a decade, Politico reported.

The move will allow the recently elected governor to have a larger role in the upcoming midterm elections, Politico reported. Youngkin, who is limited to one term as governor, has not expressed any interest in a 2024 presidential run, but has not ruled out the possibility.

“I’ve got a new job in Virginia, and I’m extremely excited to be doing it,” Youngkin said on CNBC’s “Morning Squawk Box” on April 14 when asked about potentially launching a presidential campaign.

Yeah, I think it's to early for Youngkin, he was just elected last year. Decent contender for 2028 if it's an open primary though.

[Ferguson97]

Romney is asked if he might run for president again in 2024:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mitt-romney-president-2024-not_n_6269f8c6e4b050c90f3bd844

“That’s not going to happen again. I’ve been there, I’ve tried that twice. I’m happy being a senator,” Romney, 75, told HuffPost when asked about a presidential run in 2024.

NY Post: Romney Doesn't Rule Out 2028 Presidential Run

[Ferguson97]

Politico says that their sources indicate that Biden and Trump have suggested to aides that they’d be more likely to run if the other also runs:

Yeah that was obvious from Day 1.

I expect Biden will blink first and officially announce after the midterms. 

[Ferguson97]

It's kind of funny that everyone is just playing a game of chicken with waiting for Trump and Biden to officially announce.

I'm surprised we haven't gotten some random person announcing super early ala John Delaney.

[Ferguson97]

If Trump wasn't running before, he definitely is now...

[Ferguson97]

If Trump wasn't running before, he definitely is now...

How would you rate the chances he is the 2024 nominee compared to before the raid?

90% vs 80%

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/stanveuger/status/1577085607335059457

[Ferguson97]

There you go:
https://twitter.com/SaacksAttack/status/1579959325090787333

Well, Paul Ryan has never been wrong about Donald Trump before...

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/mlcalderone/status/1587907067028848640

[Ferguson97]

Prediction: Mike Pompeo drops out in debt and with 0 delegates after getting 1.3% of the vote in New Hampshire.

Seriously, who is asking for a Mike Pompeo campaign?

He wins all the Langley precincts by Assad margins but doesn’t get a single vote elsewhere.

[Ferguson97]

BREAKING NEW ANNOUNCEMENT FOR PRESIDENT!!!!!

ASA HUTCHINSON

News just says he's considering, it's not an official announcement

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1592691697288298497

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1594191725030801411

[Ferguson97]

Whatever that means...

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1594711487947210753

At first I thought he was sitting on the top of his chair with his hands on his lap and his feet on the desk...

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1597788544516644864