2022 French legislatives

[Logical]

Well this is going to be a mess

ENS 210-250
NUPES 150-180
RN 80-100
LR+ 60-70
DVD 7-12
DVG 4-8

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1538582302367879174?cxt=HHwWjMC45fickt...

[jaichind]

Wow ... want a blowout number for RN.  It seems NUS voters must have voted RN to defeat ENS

[Oryxslayer]

Ipsos exit.

Two things. 1: That would be a near 100% rate for LR/UDI. It will probably be high, but not that much, especially since RN will be picking from them. So its probably lower, which begs the question where their voters will go.

Also obviously RN overperformance.

NUPES falls flat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

good f**king grief

[Oryxslayer]

So I'm curious where the RN seats are now coming from. Obviously it seems the must have way overperformed in runoffs with NUPES, but they also must be winning seats outside the north and south.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Very bad, but probably not unsurprising when the FN's strong performance in round 1 had already shown they seemed to be getting better at turning their vote out in legislatives. Will definitely be interesting to see if they overperformed in run-offs against NUPES, especially seeing as Mélenchon seemed to go full hippie/FREE ASSANGE in the last week in a way that I can't imagine was necessarily the most appealing to the sort of voters who decide those run-offs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seat projections are not always as easy to get right as vote shares, we do need to remember that. But it does look as if we can rule out an absolute majority for President Jupiter.

[parochial boy]

Bear in mind that over the last week LREM and friends have accused NUPES of being equally as anti-républicain as the RN, have equivocated on how the behave in RN-NUPES run offs, made everything out as to accelerate the detoxification of RN. Because how can you honestly claim the RN are some unique evil if you then turn around and claim that the left are equally as bad?

[Hash]

On those disastrous numbers, I assume that vote transfers to macronismo were terrible, much like in 2017, except that they had much less leeway than five years ago, hence this trainwreck.

[Mike88]

An Ensemble+LR/UDI coalition incoming?

[jaichind]

Putin 230, Non-Putin 330

Putin as PM ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On those disastrous numbers, I assume that vote transfers to macronismo were terrible, much like in 2017, except that they had much less leeway than five years ago, hence this trainwreck.

Occam suggests this is the likely explanation (which could mean some serious '' winners in places) but, as you know but not everyone will, we will have to wait a little to be sure.

[Oryxslayer]

An Ensemble+LR/UDI coalition incoming?

Yes I think if the exits were 100% accurate Macron would turn to LR/UDI, and justify it as protecting against the growing extremes.

[Andrea]

Christophe Castaner and Richard Ferrand have lost their seats.

[jaichind]

Just looking at a few seats it is clear RN has overperformed.  They are leading in seats againist NUS and ENS I did not expect them to.

[Mike88]

National results: 57% counted (mostly rural votes)

34.9% Ensemble, 14 seats
25.5% NUPES, 13
22.4% RN, 7
  9.4% LR/UDI, 10
  3.2% DG, 14
  2.2% Regional parties, 8
  1.7% DD, 5
  0.6% DC, 2
  0.1% Others, 1

47.3% Turnout

[parochial boy]

Relaying the Mediapart coverage, but with 90 deputies you can be sure that there are going to be some absolute batshït insane RN types getting elected. Prepare for fun times ahead there.
.

[Mike88]

The minister of health has also been defeated.

[Hash]

On those disastrous numbers, I assume that vote transfers to macronismo were terrible, much like in 2017, except that they had much less leeway than five years ago, hence this trainwreck.

Looking at some results, yes, transfers to macronismo were absolutely terrible: it's very obvious in ENS vs. RN runoffs, but also in ENS vs. Right runoffs (as in 2017 in the latter case).

[Mike88]

Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne is leading 52-48% in her constituency.

[Oryxslayer]

Also looking very clear that LR/UDI types when confronted with NUPES went hard to RN. The two seats I used as benchmarks for this are Loiret 4 and Yonne 3. Both are historically Conservative, both are NUPES vs RN, and both had non-LFI candidates. Both look like losses.

Hell, Gironde 5 as well!

[Andrea]

Health minister Brigitte Bourguignon lost to RN candidate according to Le Figaro.

[Hash]

On those disastrous numbers, I assume that vote transfers to macronismo were terrible, much like in 2017, except that they had much less leeway than five years ago, hence this trainwreck.

Looking at some results, yes, transfers to macronismo were absolutely terrible: it's very obvious in ENS vs. RN runoffs, but also in ENS vs. Right runoffs (as in 2017 in the latter case).

On the other hand, it's also looking as if transfers to the NUPES when up against the RN were also quite bad: it's clear that a fair (substantial) number of macronista and right-wing voters went to the RN rather than NUPES.

I guess that's what happens when macronismo spends weeks talking about 'the extremes', plural, and depicting NUPES as the second coming of Joseph Stalin and Mao Zedong. Disgusting stuff.

[S019]

Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne is leading 52-48% in her constituency.

Source? Le Monde doesn't have any results in for that constituency.