Conservative leadership election

[YL]

Matt Hancock has announced he is standing.  I tend to think of him as a rather bland figure.  He has long standing connections with George Osborne which is probably not an advantage.

Rory Stewart has apparently stated that he will not serve in a Johnson cabinet.

[Famous Mortimer]

Between Raab and Johnson, I assume establishment Tories would prefer Raab?

Very similar dynamics to the 2016 GOP with Cruz vs Trump. You have a very right-wing candidate who nevertheless toes economic orthodoxy vs an outsider who is many ways more moderate but nevertheless viewed as a reckless "populist"

[Zinneke]

Between Raab and Johnson, I assume establishment Tories would prefer Raab?

Very similar dynamics to the 2016 GOP with Cruz vs Trump. You have a very right-wing candidate who nevertheless toes economic orthodoxy vs an outsider who is many ways more moderate but nevertheless viewed as a reckless "populist"

Just because they are the two favorites with the bookies doesn't mean they will both be in the final two. I'll let you figure out why.

[beesley]

A Raab and Johnson final two would be highly unlikely. More likely is Hunt vs. the successful one of them, for obvious reasons.

[RogueBeaver]

Raab in. So is Gove.

[Lord Halifax]

Liz Truss has withdrawn her candidacy. Gove implies that BoJo doesn't have the "wherewithal" to deliver Brexit.

[beesley]

Liz Truss has withdrawn her candidacy. Gove implies that BoJo doesn't have the "wherewithal" to deliver Brexit.

My immediate reaction:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EDsIT1lheo

Raab in. So is Gove.

Lol@Gove. Raab is a pretty strong candidate although he's arguably a bit inexperienced. If there's a final two involving both of him, Gove or Hunt, then Surrey's monopoly on the executive continues. It's got a lot of cabinet members and all sides of the Conservative Party are represented amongst the 11 MPs. Unlike Canada, where it is a huge obsession for everyone except Jason Kenney (and an obsession for good reason), geographic representation means little when forming government here.

[CumbrianLefty]

Liz Truss has withdrawn her candidacy. Gove implies that BoJo doesn't have the "wherewithal" to deliver Brexit.

My immediate reaction:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EDsIT1lheo

Raab in. So is Gove.

Lol@Gove

I think he has a genuine chance, and is in the good books of a certain K R Murdoch.

[beesley]

Liz Truss has withdrawn her candidacy. Gove implies that BoJo doesn't have the "wherewithal" to deliver Brexit.

My immediate reaction:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EDsIT1lheo

Raab in. So is Gove.

Lol@Gove

I think he has a genuine chance, and is in the good books of a certain K R Murdoch.

I don't dispute that, he's doing very well at the moment. I was more laughing at the way he announced his campaign.

[beesley]

So far - if a candidate has formally announced, their seat is coloured in. I compiled the data from Guido Fawkes and Conservative Home - for David Evennett (Bex & Cray) they contradicted eachother, so I put Sajid Javid as it seemed more likely than Mark Harper.

Edit: Andrew Rosindell (Romford) is backing Boris Johnson.

[beesley]

Update for today following the announcements of Sajid Javid, Kit Malthouse and James Cleverly - all candidates except Cleverly have other two supporting MPs to get on to the ballot - his only apparent supporter is Colin Clark (MP for Gordon.) Mark Harper and Steve Baker have 4 and 1 supporters respectively, but it is not clear whether they are running. Collated from multiple sources.

Although Michael Gove is leading, with only a third of MPs having made any indication of their chosen candidate, it's too early to call (especially with the successive balloting.)

Edit: James Morris (Halesowen and Rowley Regis) backs Jeremy Hunt. Was bound to miss one somewhere.

[Famous Mortimer]

Stewart was accused of running to help Gove and I don't understand that.

[King of Kensington]

Nobody makes "posh populists" like the British Tories.

[Famous Mortimer]

Does an MP need a certain number of backers to be an official candidate? Also, can an MP endorse more than one person? Wiki list David Davies as having endorsed two people.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Does an MP need a certain number of backers to be an official candidate? Also, can an MP endorse more than one person? Wiki list David Davies as having endorsed two people.

I seem to remember reading that an MP needs to be backed by at least two others, but I can't remember where I read it.

Is it significant at all that Raab only has the support (so far) of three MPs from north of Birmingham (and none from north of York), while BoJo, Hunt, and Gove all seem to have much more support in Scotland and the North?

[beesley]

Does an MP need a certain number of backers to be an official candidate? Also, can an MP endorse more than one person? Wiki list David Davies as having endorsed two people.

I seem to remember reading that an MP needs to be backed by at least two others, but I can't remember where I read it.

Is it significant at all that Raab only has the support (so far) of three MPs from north of Birmingham (and none from north of York), while BoJo, Hunt, and Gove all seem to have much more support in Scotland and the North?

I hadn't noticed, I'm glad I made that map now. Raab's support is made up of mostly Brexiteers, but they tend to be the more measured and quieter ones that I like (although Andrea Jenkyns and Anne Marie Morris support him, but they're exceptions) - so people like David Davis, Dr Andrew Murrison, Eddie Hughes etc. To be honest, there aren't many Conservative MPs north of York anyway, and the ones from that area tend to be quite moderate. James Wharton who was one of the strong Brexiteers lost his seat in Stockton South (he was a pretty poor MP), and Simon Clarke, Ross Thomson, and Anne-Marie Trevelyan have all endorsed Boris, but I think that's more correlation than causation. Those three are pretty vocal; Clarke for example was one of the first people to write a letter calling for May's resignation. I'll have an update later - two Scottish MPs have endorsed Matt Hancock. Only two Scottish MPs can really be seen on the right of the party - Ross Thomson and Colin Clark, and they've backed Boris and Cleverly respectively.

And to be on the ballot, you need someone to nominate you and second that nomination - funnily enough last time Dominic Raab seconded Michael Gove's nomination, if I remember correctly.

Does an MP need a certain number of backers to be an official candidate? Also, can an MP endorse more than one person? Wiki list David Davies as having endorsed two people.

Are you sure that's a mistake? There is a David Davis (the famous one, supporting Raab) and David Davies (supporting Javid). To differentiate them in the Commons, David Davies is addressed as David TC Davies. Obviously an MP can endorse more than one candidate, but they only get one vote.

[beesley]

As promised, here's an update.

Michael Gove's support seems the most interesting. He's managed to unite Brexiteers, including Major-era Edward Leigh and George Eustice, who resigned as Environment Minister over Brexit, but with a large group of moderates, including Rachel Maclean, Trudy Harrison, Kevin Hollinrake, and David Duguid, the latter of which represents one of two Brexit supporting seats in Scotland, and some real Remain-wing Tories, including former organiser at Britain Stronger in Europe Luke Graham, and 'Brexit mutineers' Bob Neill and Tom Tugendhat.

Boris Johnson, Sajid Javid and Matt Hancock have had an uptick in supporters, whereas Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab and Esther McVey are losing ground as the number of declared MPs increases. We're nearly at 50%, and that's excluding people who probably won't endorse this early on, such as Theresa May, David Lidington and Chris Davies.

[Lumine]

Mark Harper has announced as well. That's 12 already, plus Patel, Mordaunt, Brady, Norman and Baker as possible extra candidates.

[Epaminondas]

Boris is a shoe-in.

Oh fun...

A reminder of the system: MPs have a series of votes, in each of which the bottom candidate is eliminated.  

Essentially Ranked Ballot Voting in several rounds, right?

The very voting system the Cons demonized for the 2011 referendum, when it might have threatened their grip on the country.
As long as it lets them hang on to power, they can be pretty smart people.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

IDS apparently wants the 1922 committee to change the rules, so the threshold to br nominated is raised and multiple candidates can be eliminated in early rounds.

[Gary J]

Boris is a shoe-in.

Oh fun...

A reminder of the system: MPs have a series of votes, in each of which the bottom candidate is eliminated.  

Essentially Ranked Ballot Voting in several rounds, right?

The very voting system the Cons demonized for the 2011 referendum, when it might have threatened their grip on the country.
As long as it lets them hang on to power, they can be pretty smart people.

Not quite identical. If you have a list of preferences on a single ballot paper, then you are locked into that order of preferences through the whole process. If you vote in successive ballots you can choose to modify who you vote for next, at each round.

Remember that the Conservative MPs are regarded as a dishonest electorate. Many of them are trying to construct a narrative for themselves to ingratiate themselves with the eventual winner.

"I know I promised to vote for five rival candidates and not for you Prime Minister, but I was just lying to confuse your enemies and voted for you every time. I would be a marvellous Under Secretary of State for Paperclip Procurement don't you think?"

[beesley]

Boris is a shoe-in.

Oh fun...

A reminder of the system: MPs have a series of votes, in each of which the bottom candidate is eliminated.  

Essentially Ranked Ballot Voting in several rounds, right?

The very voting system the Cons demonized for the 2011 referendum, when it might have threatened their grip on the country.
As long as it lets them hang on to power, they can be pretty smart people.

Not quite identical. If you have a list of preferences on a single ballot paper, then you are locked into that order of preferences through the whole process. If you vote in successive ballots you can choose to modify who you vote for next, at each round.

Remember that the Conservative MPs are regarded as a dishonest electorate. Many of them are trying to construct a narrative for themselves to ingratiate themselves with the eventual winner.

"I know I promised to vote for five rival candidates and not for you Prime Minister, but I was just lying to confuse your enemies and voted for you every time. I would be a marvellous Under Secretary of State for Paperclip Procurement don't you think?"

In the 1990 leadership election, there were at least 20 MPs who pledged to both Douglas Hurd and John Major privately in the hope of being promoted or gaining favour. They had not suspected that Hurd and Major were sharing their private support lists.

[CumbrianLefty]

Trump has backed BoJo, apparently.

Let joy be unconfined.

[beesley]

Trump has backed BoJo, apparently.

Let joy be unconfined.

He also said Jeremy Hunt was a 'good guy,' that he's really interested in the leadership race and that other people asked him for support (who?)

[beesley]

Another update. It all kicks off on Friday (if it hasn't already.) About 50% of the party have declared, I suspect there will be a large number, 20% or so, who don't in order to curry favour.