Morning Consult - a bunch of states

[Ben.]

Guys, if a pollster, even a high-quality one, polls a bunch of states at once, there's bound to be an outlier or two. It's basic statistics. In this batch, it happens to be Arizona that got an R-leaning sample (judging from Kelly's small lead). Frankly, if 100% of the states polled "made sense", it would be suspect

Spot on. If every state looks just right, there's probably something fishy going on. A poll that seems "off" here and there is not the sign of a bad pollster, but of a pollster that is actually legit.

This is also why this nonsense about "which pollster got the election right" is nonsense and has zero predictive power as to who "gets it right" the next time.

The tell is that AZ is the only state is this batch where Biden went backwards vs Trump.