Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[jaichind]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3195418/malaysia-pm-dissolves-parliament-paving-way-snap-election-during

"Malaysia PM dissolves parliament, paving way for snap election during monsoon season"

Moonson season will be in Nov so this election date will have to be late Oct or early Nov.   They are cutting it real close.

[jaichind]

I am on a business trip right now but will get going on figuring out the exact alliance terrain later this week when I get back.

[jaichind]

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Malaysia-Cuts-Resident-Individual-Tax-by-2--41970704/

"Malaysia Cuts Resident Individual Tax by 2%"

Very well timed

[jaichind]

One problem with an early general election is what to do about state legislature elections.  Historically state legislature elections are held on the same day as the general election with the exception of Sarawak.  Due to mid-term state elections, Johor Sabah and  Malacca have also decoupled from the general election.   So now the rest of the states have to decide to call their own mid-term elections.

As a whole, I think it works better for PH and PN for state legislative elections to be held at the same time as general elections while it is better for BN for them to be held separately.  Given the chaos of the last 4 years, there will be a tendency toward having a solid majority for a national bloc.  While it is not clear that BN will get a majority they are the only bloc with such prospects.  So a general election-only election will benefit BN.  Once state legislature elections are being held at the same time the national political issue will not be the only election issue that could help PH and PN.

[jaichind]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/malaysias-mahathir-97-run-general-elections-91320556

"Malaysia's Mahathir, 97, to run in general elections"

Mahathir who before said he would not run again will indeed run.  He will be running on the GTA alliance, including his PEJUANG party (pro-Mahathir PPBM splinter) and extreme Malay nationalist Ibrahim Ali's PUTRA, PAS right-wing splinter BERJASA, and  Indian Muslim IMAN.  It seems Mahathir this time want to outflank UMNO and PAS on the Malay nationalist and Islamism flank.  I doubt it will work.

[jaichind]

Re: Mahathir. I don't know what he thinks he's doing, and honestly being reminded again that he teamed up with Ibrahim Ali is a mark of how unserious this new outfit is. Will be genuinely surprised if they win more seats that I can count on one hand.

I just find it funny that Mahathir can, with a straight face, have an alliance with DAP in one election and then have an alliance with Ibrahim Ali  in the next.

[jaichind]

Long-time DAP leader Lim Kit Siang will not run for re-election

UMNO's Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah also will not run for re-election.  Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah was the former leader of UMNO splinter S46 in the late 1980s and early 1990s before returning to UMNO.  One can argue he was scammed out of being the leader of UMNO and PM back in the 1987 UMNO leadership race.

[jaichind]

PH-controlled state assemblies of Negeri Sembilan and Selangor, where PKR calls the shots, will not call state elections.  IN PH-controlled Penang, where DAP calls the shots, could.  It seems DAP seems to think that Penang PH will benefit from a higher turnout whereas in Negeri Sembilan and Selangor PKR seems that PH will benefit from a lower turnout.

What will be difficult for PH to do to explain these decisions in principled and not tactical terms.

[jaichind]

It seems PAS-controlled Kelantan Terengganu and Kedah (in conjunction with PPBM) state assemblies will not dissolve. Clearly a smart move.  In 2018 PAS outperformed in the state assemblies elections relative to the general election even though they were on the same day in those three states so clearly PAS does not want the state elections on the same day.

[jaichind]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-najib-razak-jail-corruption-1mdb-umno-ge15-election-jail-prison-election-candidate-3005741

"Jailed former PM Najib among UMNO nominees for Pekan seat contest in upcoming election: Reports"

UMNO will either run Najib if he can get a royal pardon or run one of his children if he could not.

[jaichind]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/malaysias-mahathir-97-run-general-elections-91320556

"Malaysia's Mahathir, 97, to run in general elections"

Mahathir who before said he would not run again will indeed run.  He will be running on the GTA alliance, including his PEJUANG party (pro-Mahathir PPBM splinter) and extreme Malay nationalist Ibrahim Ali's PUTRA, PAS right-wing splinter BERJASA, and  Indian Muslim IMAN.  It seems Mahathir this time want to outflank UMNO and PAS on the Malay nationalist and Islamism flank.  I doubt it will work.

So, let me get this straight. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are too to old lead a country at roughly 80, but Mahathir Mohamad, at 97 isn't?

Something is wrong with this picture.

You should watch Mahathir in action getting interviewed.  He is still extremely sharp.

[jaichind]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-najib-razak-jail-corruption-1mdb-umno-ge15-election-jail-prison-election-candidate-3005741

"Jailed former PM Najib among UMNO nominees for Pekan seat contest in upcoming election: Reports"

UMNO will either run Najib if he can get a royal pardon or run one of his children if he could not.

The Pekan chapter clarified yesterday that they submitted that list before Najib went to jail… which is odd in itself but not inconsistent with certain factions of UMNO prepping for an early GE from Johor elections onward. And none of his children are on the list. Maybe if Pekan UMNO submits a new list?

For the record Najib is completely disqualified from nomination or election as an MP, that took effect immediately based on Article 48(5) from the moment of conviction. Whether he gets a pardon only has effect on whether he can remain as an MP now, but we're here in this thread because parliament has been dissolved and that has become a moot point.

If I were UMNO I would not run any of  Najib's children.  The only campaign slogan that PH has left is "if BN wins then  Najib will be back out on the streets"

[jaichind]

Mahathir at Oxford Union just a few weeks ago.  Clearly still have very strong cognitive abilities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QT-y44NhxE&t=822s&ab_channel=OxfordUnion

Feels a lot like my grandma.  She passed away a few years ago when she was 99.  One of the reasons why she lived so long was that in her 60s she suddenly became very interested in politics and spent a lot of time following politics.  Like me, she shifted to an extreme Chinese nationalist position around the late 1980s.  The fact her mind was always on politics gave her something to focus on and live for and really prolonged her life.  I think something similar is going on with Mahathir.

[jaichind]

Alliance as I see it so far

Peninsular Malaysia
BN (UMNO MCA MIC) vs PH (DAP PKR AMANAH)-MUDA vs PN (PAS PPBM GERAKAN) vs GTA (PEJUANG PUTRA BERJASA IMAN)

Sabah
BN (UMNO PBRS) vs WARISAN vs PH (DAP PKR AMANAH)-UPKO vs PN (PPBM PBS STAR SAPP USNO)

Sarawak
GPS(PBB SUPP PRS PDP) [backed by BN] vs PH (DAP PKR AMANAH) vs PRBS (PSB PBK PBDS STAR) vs PBM

In Peninsular Malaysia BN clearly has the upper hand.  PH has to hope for a return of the 2018 youth and anti-incumbency surge to have a chance.

The WARISAN-PH split most likely spells doom for PH in Sabah.  WARISAN could win a few seats given the BN-PN split.

Sarawak will be a massive GPS sweep given the opposition split.

[jaichind]

How politically interested are Najib's children? If BN did run one of them, which would be likeliest?

Not very. Although once their day got put in jail they are emerging into more of an active political role.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2022/08/28/najibs-children-pay-tribute-to-their-dad-in-heartfelt-speeches

"Najib’s children pay tribute to their dad in heartfelt speeches"

As for who UMNO might run I have no idea.  Might not matter that much since none of them have any political experience.  I would think they run one of his daughters since that will maximize the sympathy factor.

[jaichind]

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2022/10/16/bersatu-assemblyman-wetrom-set-to-join-warisan

"Bersatu assemblyman Wetrom set to join Warisan"

In Sabah, it seems a PPBM MLA will join WARISAN and almost certainly will be nominated to run for a MP seat.

The fact that defections from PN to WARISAN are taking place is a signal about the relative chances of PN and WARISAN in Sabah.

[jaichind]

Speaking of defections, MPs and MLAs elected in this election will be subject to the new anti-defection law where any MP or  MLA that leaves the party he or she was elected on will lose their seat automatically.  This seems to also apply in the case where an independent that is elected joins a party post-election.

[jaichind]

The WARISAN-PH split most likely spells doom for PH in Sabah.  WARISAN could win a few seats given the BN-PN split.

BN and PN are actually fully working together in Sabah as they already lead the state government there and both sides have referred to it as a "special situation" separate from the national squabbling. Seemingly they both hate Shafie enough to come together on this.

Interesting.  I thought there was pressure from both camps to break up for the federal elections (even as the alliance for state government stays.)  I guess BN and PN have withstood that pressure.  I wonder if their alliance is total or partial (like in the state elections).

I guess the results will be DAP winning the Chinese seats and BN-PN sweeping most of the rest. WARISAN has to hope that by dissociating itself from DAP it can win over some anti-DAP votes.  The fact that the state government is BN-PN will work heavily against WARISAN. 

[jaichind]

So in the end UMNO controlled  Pahang, Perlis, and Perak will have snap state assembly elections on the same day as general elections.

[jaichind]

A poll from Vodus did in Aug for Peninsular Malaysia which has BN with a likely narrow majority or falling just short of it.  With GPS sweeping Sarawak a BN-GPS majority should be workable.

[jaichind]

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/10/22/ph-muda-seat-negotiations-taking-place-tomorrow-says-loke/

"PH, Muda seat negotiations taking place tomorrow, says Loke"

PH alliance talks with PPBM youth splinter MUDA ongoing.  Not a good sign that these talks are dragging on.

[jaichind]

Saw that poll too last night.

For the record I can't count the number of safe PH seats in Selangor alone without using my toes as well as my fingers, just to give some idea of how reliable I think this is. Also the fact that both PH and UMNO are gunning for PN seats, which honestly could have been predicted when this data was being collected, in turn says a lot about how inflated that PN total is.

That is my main problem with this poll.  It seems to overstate PN's strength outside PAS's Northern strongholds.  If this poll has PPBM being wiped out in Johor I fail to see why PPBM even with PAS support getting anything.

[jaichind]

Yale sponsored survey for Peninsular Malaysia.  This feels more like what is the current state of play


My 2018 analysis of vote by ethnic group

I was able do a regression analysis of the results by district in Peninsular Malaysia and derive vote by ethnic group.  I used variables such as rural suburban and urban and grouped states that seems to voted similarly as well as take into account of special candidates that will over-perform their own party.

What I got is

Malays (60.9% of the voting population)
PH  24.5%
BN  44.0%
GS  31.5%

Chinese (29.0% of the voting population)
PH   94.0%
BN    5.5%
GS    0.5%

Indian (8.4% of the voting population)
PH   74.5%
BN   24.0%
GS    1.5%

Orang Asli (Aborigine) (0.6% of the voting population)
PH    2.0%
BN   97.0%
GS    1.0%

Others (1.1% of the voting population)
PH   19.5%
BN   63.5%
GS   17.0%

I also compute that when PAS is not running the PAS vote goes 83.5% for BN and 16.5% for PH.


Below is a chart of estimates of vote share by ethnic group in previous elections


It seems the PH large vote share lead was really driven by Chinese and Indian voters which all things equal did not add that much in terms of gaining seats for PH except for very close BN-PH marginal seats.  PH on the whole actually under-performed pre-election polls in terms of Malay support. What crushed BN was the fact that PAS over-performed at the expense of BN in the Malay vote.  So in the end the PH-PAS split worked to the advantage of PH and not BN which was the conventional wisdom.

If you look at the Malay vote by district type you can get some clear patterns

                   PH          BN           PAS
Rural          17.0%     48.5%     34.5%
Suburban    27.5%     43.0%     29.5%
Urban         37.0%     36.5%     26.5%

PH does better with urban Malays while BN does best with rural Malays.  What is the surprise here is how well PAS does even with urban Malays although that did not seem to make much of a difference in terms of seats.  It is PAS's over-performance in Rural and Suburban seats that cost BN seats, either to PH or PAS.

What is also interesting is in areas of PAS strength like Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu PAS does just as well in Urban areas among Malay voters as Rural Malay voters.  It is BN that has a falloff in Malay support in these states as well as in other states.

On interesting driver for this PAS strength with Urban Malays is if you take areas where the PH is gaining strength (Penang, Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, suburban and urban Johor) PAS does very well with Malay voters when an non-UNMO party is running when compared to when UNMO is running.  It seems this is mostly driven by the BN Malay anti-DAP vote which went over PAS now that PAS is not allied with DAP especially an non-UNMO candidate is running for BN.

This is why MCA and MIC got crushed.  They lost both ways.  The Chinese seats were lost in 2013 and will remain lost.  MCA and MIC won some ethnically mixed seats from 2013 based on the Malay vote and what is left of the Chinese and Indian vote.  This time around there is a further swing of the Chinese and Indian vote away from BN PLUS the Malay vote going over to PAS.  The result was a complete meltdown of MCA and MIC seats.

So again the story of this election is not a Malay Tsunami toward PH.  PH if anything did a bit worse than expected with Malays.  What took place was PAS took some of the BN anti-DAP vote and destroyed BN along the way.

We can now take these breakdown in support to try to estimate the levels of support for each party.

For the PH Chinese vote you can figure 67% are for DAP and 33% are for PKR.  
For the PH Indian vote you can figure 20% are for DAP and 80% are for PKR
For the PH Malay vote you can figure 35% are for PKR, 20% are for AMANAH and 45% are for PPBM.

For BN it is simple.  All BN Malay votes are for UNMO and all BN Indian votes are for MIC (and a bit for Gerakan) and all BN Chinese votes are for MCA/PPP/Gerakan.

Using this you can estimate the level of support for each party and you get.

DAP                             19.6%
PKR                             19.1%
AMANAH                        3.0%
PPBM                             6.9%
UNMO                          27.8%
MCA/Gerakan                 1.6%
MIC/PPP                        2.0%
PAS                             20.0%

The main danger for PH is that around 55% of voter support are from Chinese.  It is critical that for political power in PH to flow to PKR and PPBM to avoid PH being tagged as a DAP puppet.  This was the BN line of attack which did not work because Mahathir.  But if DAP's influence were to match its vote share with PH this will be a problem with PH when it comes to winning Malay votes in the future.

[jaichind]

Malaysian constituencies are very gerrymandered to favor rural (BN) voters.

Yes. And slightly more nuanced than that, the current lines aside from being grossly malapportioned are also explicitly based on ethnicity (something the EC chairman at the time admitted). And even more nuanced than that, this is something that the legacy parties benefit from at the specific expense of the multiracial ones that rely on Malay voters.

I think it is mostly about urban vs rural seats.  It is just rural areas area all Malay while Chinese and Indians are concentrated in urban areas.

[jaichind]

I have to assume that BN can afford to be ruthless in dropping incumbents because of the perception that BN will win and that BN rebels will lose out on being on the winning team.  It is the other fronts that have to be careful about dropping incumbents.