I may not live in Iowa anymore (need to update my avatar) but I think this is going to be a sleeper race. Everyone thinks Ernst is safe. Yet Iowa has been one of the hardest-hit states by the tariff war, the economy, and ethanol. Mass layoffs have been happening, and farmers are struggling. I personally know several farmers in Iowa and at least one of them - who voted for Trump - said she and her husband have been seriously considering giving up their farming operation, as it's a struggle for them anymore. Sonny Perdue's comments about family farms certainly don't help things.
Everyone thinks that just because Theresa Greenfield isn't some massive Tom Vilsack-esque name that she's automatically a loser and that Iowa recruitment is terrible. Democrats specifically sought her out to run, and I think she's been at the top of their list for awhile. She probably would have won the 3rd District if her campaign manager hadn't have forged those signatures - that whole situation, PS, she handled amazingly and as well as anyone could have hoped for (fired him, tossed out all the signatures and made a remarkable effort to get all the signatures again within less than 48 hours). Kay Hagan was a nobody before she became a senator. Did anybody know who Scott Brown was before he got elected? And let's not forget; Joni herself nobody gave a second thought to, and everyone thought Braley would win. The Iowa Democratic Party is a lot better than it was even a year and a half ago, and Ernst is vulnerable. I consider the race Lean R, but it's closer to Tossup than Likely R. Trust me on this; I lived in Iowa and I saw firsthand the struggles the state is going through.
Ask Heidi Heitkamp about how these voters care about the tariffs.
