IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Politician]

Greenfield outraised Ernst last quarter, taking in 1.1$ Million to the incumbent senator's 1$ Million.

https://www.apnews.com/6e1596a88b3d448e94f903de0bfd30a4

Personally, I think this speaks more to the fact that the Ds are doing really well with fundraising than Greenfield's ability, but still, it is a positive sign from her campaign.

Clearly Safe R and less likely to flip than KS/AK/MT. /s

[OneJ]

It's early, but Iowa is looking a lot more favorable to Democrats than I had previously hoped or expected.

[HarrisonL]

Greenfield outraised Ernst last quarter, taking in 1.1$ Million to the incumbent senator's 1$ Million.

https://www.apnews.com/6e1596a88b3d448e94f903de0bfd30a4

Personally, I think this speaks more to the fact that the Ds are doing really well with fundraising than Greenfield's ability, but still, it is a positive sign from her campaign.

That's because she's a rich real-estate agent, but if she isn't a good candidate when it comes to campaigning, speaking and debating, then she will falter.

[HarrisonL]

Also the FEC says Greenfield's campaign has only raised $628,000, not $1.1 million

[Zaybay]

Also the FEC says Greenfield's campaign has only raised $628,000, not $1.1 million

The FEC page isnt updated, thats her second quarter haul(6/30).

And to your previous comment, it likely has a lot more to do with the fact that Democrats have been raising tons of money everywhere than the fact she was a real-estate agent, especially since barely any of her funding is from herself, and thats a good thing. We may not have the best candidate in IA, but at least she's well funded(unless Franken wins the primary, which I personally would prefer).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am now predicting along with ME, CO, AZ, NC that IA will go to Dems

[Frenchrepublican]

It's early, but Iowa is looking a lot more favorable to Democrats than I had previously hoped or expected.

Why ? Because she out raised Ernst by $ 100k. You’re really overreacting here.

[Xing]

It's early, but Iowa is looking a lot more favorable to Democrats than I had previously hoped or expected.

Why ? Because she out raised Ernst by $ 100k. You’re really overreacting here.

I mean, expectations were very low for Democrats in this race, so he might just mean relatively.

[OneJ]

It's early, but Iowa is looking a lot more favorable to Democrats than I had previously hoped or expected.

Why ? Because she out raised Ernst by $ 100k. You’re really overreacting here.

I mean, expectations were very low for Democrats in this race, so he might just mean relatively.

This. I still think it's a Lean Republican race, fwiw, but it does give me a little more confidence than before.

Also, it's funny how FrenchRepublican suggests that I'm overreacting about this when he can't even admit that North Carolina or Georgia are practically tossups at this point even after people show him plenty of evidence to prove it.

[Frenchrepublican]

It's early, but Iowa is looking a lot more favorable to Democrats than I had previously hoped or expected.

Why ? Because she out raised Ernst by $ 100k. You’re really overreacting here.

I mean, expectations were very low for Democrats in this race, so he might just mean relatively.

This. I still think it's a Lean Republican race, fwiw, but it does give me a little more confidence than before.

Also, it's funny how FrenchRepublican suggests that I'm overreacting about this when he can't even admit that North Carolina or Georgia are practically tossups at this point even after people show him plenty of evidence to prove it.

Plenty of evidence ? Sure, if you want, but the fact that democrats have lost every statewide elections held in Georgia since 2002 disprove your ’’plenty of evidence’’ that GA Sen races are tossups.

[Zaybay]

It's early, but Iowa is looking a lot more favorable to Democrats than I had previously hoped or expected.

Why ? Because she out raised Ernst by $ 100k. You’re really overreacting here.

I mean, expectations were very low for Democrats in this race, so he might just mean relatively.

This. I still think it's a Lean Republican race, fwiw, but it does give me a little more confidence than before.

Also, it's funny how FrenchRepublican suggests that I'm overreacting about this when he can't even admit that North Carolina or Georgia are practically tossups at this point even after people show him plenty of evidence to prove it.

Plenty of evidence ? Sure, if you want, but the fact that democrats have lost every statewide elections held in Georgia since 2002 disprove your ’’plenty of evidence’’ that GA Sen races are tossups.

2016: Michigan hasnt been won by a Republican since 1988, therefore its going blue.
2008: Virginia hasnt been won by a Democrat since 1960, therefore its going red.

Using historical voting patterns is fine to use as evidence, but you shouldnt disregard overwhelming evidence just because it contradicts history.

[Frenchrepublican]

It's early, but Iowa is looking a lot more favorable to Democrats than I had previously hoped or expected.

Why ? Because she out raised Ernst by $ 100k. You’re really overreacting here.

I mean, expectations were very low for Democrats in this race, so he might just mean relatively.

This. I still think it's a Lean Republican race, fwiw, but it does give me a little more confidence than before.

Also, it's funny how FrenchRepublican suggests that I'm overreacting about this when he can't even admit that North Carolina or Georgia are practically tossups at this point even after people show him plenty of evidence to prove it.

Plenty of evidence ? Sure, if you want, but the fact that democrats have lost every statewide elections held in Georgia since 2002 disprove your ’’plenty of evidence’’ that GA Sen races are tossups.

2016: Michigan hasnt been won by a Republican since 1988, therefore its going blue.
2008: Virginia hasnt been won by a Democrat since 1960, therefore its going red.

Using historical voting patterns is fine to use as evidence, but you shouldnt disregard overwhelming evidence just because it contradicts history.

Sure, dude, but your are talking about presidential elections. Concerning GA I’m talking about major statewide elections (Pres + Sen + Gov), and when you look at it the Democratic drought has been particularly long. Now I agree that GA is trending D (it’s a fact) and the state will likely trend D again next year and by the mid of the next decade it should be a true swing state, but as of now it’s still a R-leaning state and if Dems have a relatively high floor their ceiling is still under 50%

[KaiserDave]

I don't really see this seat flipping. With Scholten not running, I'd say we refocus our resources on NC, both GA, KS, AZ and defending MI.

[Young Conservative]

Decent news, but not game changing. Still lean/likely R.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Ernst is a goner. Safe D.

[PAK Man]

I may not live in Iowa anymore (need to update my avatar) but I think this is going to be a sleeper race. Everyone thinks Ernst is safe. Yet Iowa has been one of the hardest-hit states by the tariff war, the economy, and ethanol. Mass layoffs have been happening, and farmers are struggling. I personally know several farmers in Iowa and at least one of them - who voted for Trump - said she and her husband have been seriously considering giving up their farming operation, as it's a struggle for them anymore. Sonny Perdue's comments about family farms certainly don't help things.

Everyone thinks that just because Theresa Greenfield isn't some massive Tom Vilsack-esque name that she's automatically a loser and that Iowa recruitment is terrible. Democrats specifically sought her out to run, and I think she's been at the top of their list for awhile. She probably would have won the 3rd District if her campaign manager hadn't have forged those signatures - that whole situation, PS, she handled amazingly and as well as anyone could have hoped for (fired him, tossed out all the signatures and made a remarkable effort to get all the signatures again within less than 48 hours). Kay Hagan was a nobody before she became a senator. Did anybody know who Scott Brown was before he got elected? And let's not forget; Joni herself nobody gave a second thought to, and everyone thought Braley would win. The Iowa Democratic Party is a lot better than it was even a year and a half ago, and Ernst is vulnerable. I consider the race Lean R, but it's closer to Tossup than Likely R. Trust me on this; I lived in Iowa and I saw firsthand the struggles the state is going through.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats are also doing well in fundraising in KY, which isn’t going to make the race any more winnable for them. Sure, Ernst almost certainly isn’t going to win by Grassley margins, but to deny that Greenfield faces an uphill battle here because she just outraised Ernst by a negligible amount in one quarter would be silly.

[Zaybay]

Democrats are also doing well in fundraising in KY, which isn’t going to make the race any more winnable for them. Sure, Ernst almost certainly isn’t going to win by Grassley margins, but to deny that Greenfield faces an uphill battle here because she just outraised Ernst by a negligible amount in one quarter would be silly.

I dont believe any of us think that the race tilts towards the Democrats or is even a pure tossup. What we are saying is that this is a positive sign that our candidate will still be well-funded even in a tough race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst will probably win, she is pragmatic like Reynolds; as a result, Dems are best to target other states. Unlike Collins, whose vote on Kavanaugh can hurt her.

[MT Treasurer]

I dont believe any of us think that the race tilts towards the Democrats or is even a pure tossup. What we are saying is that this is a positive sign that our candidate will still be well-funded even in a tough race.

Well, fair enough, but wasn’t that to be expected? This has been considered one of the best pick-up opportunities by the DSCC from day one.

I’d be much more worried about TX when it comes to fundraising.

[Xing]

I don't think Ernst will lose, but I don't think this is comparable to Kentucky, because:

1) Ernst isn't as well-known or universally disliked as McConnell
2) While Iowa might be trending Republican and an increasingly hard state for Democrats, it's still nowhere near as Republican as Kentucky.

I'd still rate this Likely R (closer to Lean than Safe), but I'd be surprised if Ernst won by anywhere near McConnell's eventual margin.

[KaiserDave]

I dont believe any of us think that the race tilts towards the Democrats or is even a pure tossup. What we are saying is that this is a positive sign that our candidate will still be well-funded even in a tough race.

Well, fair enough, but wasn’t that to be expected? This has been considered one of the best pick-up opportunities by the DSCC from day one.

I’d be much more worried about TX when it comes to fundraising.

DSCC is deluded if they think this is a better spot than AZ, NC, or GA.

[BP🌹]

I may not live in Iowa anymore (need to update my avatar) but I think this is going to be a sleeper race. Everyone thinks Ernst is safe. Yet Iowa has been one of the hardest-hit states by the tariff war, the economy, and ethanol. Mass layoffs have been happening, and farmers are struggling. I personally know several farmers in Iowa and at least one of them - who voted for Trump - said she and her husband have been seriously considering giving up their farming operation, as it's a struggle for them anymore. Sonny Perdue's comments about family farms certainly don't help things.

Everyone thinks that just because Theresa Greenfield isn't some massive Tom Vilsack-esque name that she's automatically a loser and that Iowa recruitment is terrible. Democrats specifically sought her out to run, and I think she's been at the top of their list for awhile. She probably would have won the 3rd District if her campaign manager hadn't have forged those signatures - that whole situation, PS, she handled amazingly and as well as anyone could have hoped for (fired him, tossed out all the signatures and made a remarkable effort to get all the signatures again within less than 48 hours). Kay Hagan was a nobody before she became a senator. Did anybody know who Scott Brown was before he got elected? And let's not forget; Joni herself nobody gave a second thought to, and everyone thought Braley would win. The Iowa Democratic Party is a lot better than it was even a year and a half ago, and Ernst is vulnerable. I consider the race Lean R, but it's closer to Tossup than Likely R. Trust me on this; I lived in Iowa and I saw firsthand the struggles the state is going through.

Ask Heidi Heitkamp about how these voters care about the tariffs.

[Pericles]

I may not live in Iowa anymore (need to update my avatar) but I think this is going to be a sleeper race. Everyone thinks Ernst is safe. Yet Iowa has been one of the hardest-hit states by the tariff war, the economy, and ethanol. Mass layoffs have been happening, and farmers are struggling. I personally know several farmers in Iowa and at least one of them - who voted for Trump - said she and her husband have been seriously considering giving up their farming operation, as it's a struggle for them anymore. Sonny Perdue's comments about family farms certainly don't help things.

Everyone thinks that just because Theresa Greenfield isn't some massive Tom Vilsack-esque name that she's automatically a loser and that Iowa recruitment is terrible. Democrats specifically sought her out to run, and I think she's been at the top of their list for awhile. She probably would have won the 3rd District if her campaign manager hadn't have forged those signatures - that whole situation, PS, she handled amazingly and as well as anyone could have hoped for (fired him, tossed out all the signatures and made a remarkable effort to get all the signatures again within less than 48 hours). Kay Hagan was a nobody before she became a senator. Did anybody know who Scott Brown was before he got elected? And let's not forget; Joni herself nobody gave a second thought to, and everyone thought Braley would win. The Iowa Democratic Party is a lot better than it was even a year and a half ago, and Ernst is vulnerable. I consider the race Lean R, but it's closer to Tossup than Likely R. Trust me on this; I lived in Iowa and I saw firsthand the struggles the state is going through.

Ask Heidi Heitkamp about how these voters care about the tariffs.

Tbf North Dakota is not the same as Iowa, Trump won North Dakota by 36% and Iowa by 9%. Given Heitkamp lost by 11% she outran the state's partisanship by 25%, which is legitimately impressive, and any Democrat who does that well in Iowa would win in a landslide. Of course most of Heitkamp's overperformance is probably due to her being a strong incumbent candidate, though this still isn't a good example to use and it's entirely possible the tariffs helped her overperform (especially since Democrats did do quite well in Iowa in 2018).

[OSR stands with Israel]

I dont believe any of us think that the race tilts towards the Democrats or is even a pure tossup. What we are saying is that this is a positive sign that our candidate will still be well-funded even in a tough race.

Well, fair enough, but wasn’t that to be expected? This has been considered one of the best pick-up opportunities by the DSCC from day one.

I’d be much more worried about TX when it comes to fundraising.

DSCC is deluded if they think this is a better spot than AZ, NC, or GA.

Wait the DSCC thinks that lol