PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Skye]

That was a bit underwhelming for an announcement video.

That’s a lame announcement video, certainly not indicative of a candidate who’s likely to attract a ton of crossover appeal. Much like the R field for OH-SEN, I find the Democrats' bench here (especially Lamb, but also Fetterman) to be fairly unimpressive/overrated, especially given how dominant the two parties have been in their respective states (at the local level, at least). Really think the margins in both races (and most other competitive races, to be fair) will be near-identical to Biden's approval-dispproval spread.

You should see the video of the same announcement, but in Spanish. It's major Beto O'Rourke vibes:

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1423620140449546243?s=20

Interesting that he chose to produce an ad in Spanish. PA isn't exactly known for having an important bloc of Hispanic voters (maybe in Reading, a few neighborhoods in Philly and a few other towns I'm sure I'm missing at the moment). Hispanic voters are practically non-existent in his District, if I'm not mistaken.

As far as the quality of his Spanish, it's a bit meh. It sounds like Rick Scott's.

[Skye]

“Pensilvania”

That’s like calling Oaxaca “Wahacka”

Um, you do know places can have different spelling in different languages, right?

[Skye]

He ran behind Biden by, like, .2%, which is statistically insignificant.

Given the political profile of PA-17 being such that downballot Democrats typically run ahead of Presidential totals, and sometimes by a lot; even a small overperformance by a Democrat there would be a big red flag as to their electability in a statewide race, let alone an underperformance.

Really, though? Maybe the Beaver County part of the District is like that (and Lamb did run ahead of Biden there by a bit) but the Allegheny County part (and you can correct me if I'm wrong because maybe I'm generalizing) is home to many D-trending suburbs that have well-above average income levels and are relatively well educated (e.g. McCandless); which is the kind of demographic profile where Biden overperformed compared to Cong. Dem. candidates.

[Skye]

Did a quick map on Biden vs. Lamb in PA-17. Blue is Biden overperformance, Red is Lamb overperformance. Since their performances were fairly similar (Biden +2.7%, Lamb +2.3%) I used increases of 2% for each shade of color.



As you can see, Biden ran ahead of Lamb in a set of wealthier, well educated suburbs. Examples include Sewickley Heights, Fox Chapel, Franklin Park, among others.

[Skye]

I would rather not make any hot takes about the Dem primary until we get a decent, non-internal poll of the race.

[Skye]

My issue is that the establishment is astroturfing Lamb over Kenyatta, despite his failures.

But why would the establishment support a State Legislator over U.S. Congressman?

[Skye]

Glad to see Lamb's strategy crashing and burning. I still think this will be quite an uphill climb for Fetterman in November given how bad the environment is, though.

Is it fair to say he's crashing and burning when in reality he really never took off lol.