KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Brittain33]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

I’d love to believe it but there is literally no precedent in 50+ years for Dems winning statewide for a federal race under any circumstances, and that was the Goldwater election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

Don't get me wrong, it would be more competitive with him in the race. He is just about the worst candidate that Republicans can get. But I would not expect it to play out how the gubernatorial election did. Gubernatorial and Senate elections are often two completely different dynamics.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

Don't get me wrong, it would be more competitive with him in the race. He is just about the worst candidate that Republicans can get. But I would not expect it to play out how the gubernatorial election did. Gubernatorial and Senate elections are often two completely different dynamics.

The statewide margin results of the 2016 Governors Race and 2018 Senate Race in Indiana, Missouri, and Montana were all within just half of a single percentage point from eachother. Manchin did worse because he was stupid to vote for Kavanaugh. Heitkamp did better because Democrats did not attempt to contest the states Governors race in 2016.

Governors races have been becoming more and more polarized as a Senate race would be in recent years.

[S019]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

Don't get me wrong, it would be more competitive with him in the race. He is just about the worst candidate that Republicans can get. But I would not expect it to play out how the gubernatorial election did. Gubernatorial and Senate elections are often two completely different dynamics.

The statewide margin results of the 2016 Governors Race and 2018 Senate Race in Indiana, Missouri, and Montana were all within just half of a single percentage point from eachother. Manchin did worse because he was stupid to vote for Kavanaugh. Heitkamp did better because Democrats did not attempt to contest the states Governors race in 2016.

Governors races have been becoming more and more polarized as a Senate race would be in recent years.

It is pretty clear that the Kavanaugh vote ended Heitkamp's hopes of a comeback and doomed both McCaskill and Donnelly, Bredesen's equivocation on the Kavanaugh issue also doomed him. Also it is clear that the Kavanaugh voted saved Manchin. Also the WV Gov Race was a R v R, because Jim Justice was a DINO who actually endorsed Trump in 2016. Also KS with Kobach is still Lean R, it would be interesting with Greg Orman or Mark Parkinson, though, and Kathleen Sebellius would make it Safe R. Governors races are not becoming polarized. Baker and Warren won in landslides sharing a ballot. While Baldwin won by double digits, Walker lost by the skin of his teeth. Ohio elected Brown and DeWine. In Iowa, GOP won Gov Race, despite losing 3 out of 4 Congressional Districts.

[Brittain33]

It is pretty clear that the Kavanaugh vote ended Heitkamp's hopes of a comeback and doomed both McCaskill and Donnelly, Bredesen's equivocation on the Kavanaugh issue also doomed him. Also it is clear that the Kavanaugh voted saved Manchin.

Just curious, how do you think we can know that with any confidence?

[Pollster]

Nancy Boyda considering

[S019]

Nancy Boyda considering

A Democrat who lost reelection in 2008, even Kobach would beat her


Tilt/Lean R with Kobach
Safe R without Kobach

If Boyda is the nominee

Lean R with Kobach
Safe R without Kobach

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nancy Boyda considering

A Democrat who lost reelection in 2008, even Kobach would beat her


Tilt/Lean R with Kobach
Safe R without Kobach

If Boyda is the nominee

Lean R with Kobach
Safe R without Kobach

Dems are just recruiting candidates in KS, NC, TX and AZ, just in case Ernst and Collins survive.  

Better than GOP efforts in must win states: MI, Va and NH

[Brittain33]

Nancy Boyda considering

A Democrat who lost reelection in 2008, even Kobach would beat her

I don't think she's a particularly strong candidate, but she lost in 2008 because the district was too R, her opponent was strong, and she'd defeated a tainted incumbent (Jim Ryun) in '06 to win in the first place.

[ElectionsGuy]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

hahaha funny.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

hahaha funny.

Why do you wait to quote a post to say it is funny until over 1 months after it was posted, slightly closer to 2 months? Is there something in the news that you are hiding?

[ElectionsGuy]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

hahaha funny.

Why do you wait to quote a post to say it is funny until over 1 months after it was posted, slightly closer to 2 months? Is there something in the news that you are hiding?

I don't have time to check every thread every day. I just happened to see it and thought it was funny. I don't see the big deal.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

hahaha funny.

Why do you wait to quote a post to say it is funny until over 1 months after it was posted, slightly closer to 2 months? Is there something in the news that you are hiding?

I don't have time to check every thread every day. I just happened to see it and thought it was funny. I don't see the big deal.

Well what I said about 2020 KS-SEN is Lean D if Kobach is the nominee is still true.

[Pollster]

Author Sarah Smarsh is considering, and I have confirmed that she is the candidate my colleague mentioned earlier this year who the Kelly/Sebelius team is backing

[Sestak]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R, AZ, CO, GA, ME, and NC flips the Senate, with MI-Sen as the tipping point.

[DaWN]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

Crappy GOP candidates who don't know when to call it a day: the gift that keeps on giving.

Although he's almost certainly not beatable in a federal race in a presidential year, watching the GOP squirm over yet another race that should be a complete cakewalk will be pretty funny.

[lfromnj]

So the Dem's cant recruit any A tier candidates but the GOP gets F tier?

[Roll Roons]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

Come on. Between this and Moore just why???

[Frenchrepublican]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

Come on. Between this and Moore just why???

We are the stupid party, don't forget it and we have a secret sauce to blow up winnable senatorial races (NV 2010, MO 2012, IN 2012, ND 2012, AL 2017, OH 2018, WV 2018....)

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, if Republicans want to take races like this or AL/MT/AK for granted and think they’re safe no matter what because of "polarization" and "Trump coattails", they absolutely deserve to lose the Senate.

[Continential]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

Hahahahahaha! The next Todd Akin.

[HarrisonL]

Kansas may be trending dem, but losing the state by 10 instead by 20 doesn't change the outcome

No, Kansas is not trending Democratic just because Laura Kelly narrowly won the Governorship and Davids flipped a House Seat that Clinton won in 2016. Laura Kelly will lose in 2022.

[We Live in Black and White]

Kansas may be trending dem, but losing the state by 10 instead by 20 doesn't change the outcome

No, Kansas is not trending Democratic just because Laura Kelly narrowly won the Governorship and Davids flipped a House Seat that Clinton won in 2016. Laura Kelly will lose in 2022.

KS-03 isn't the only part of the state that's trending left, but go off I guess.

[DrScholl]

Kansas may be trending dem, but losing the state by 10 instead by 20 doesn't change the outcome

No, Kansas is not trending Democratic just because Laura Kelly narrowly won the Governorship and Davids flipped a House Seat that Clinton won in 2016. Laura Kelly will lose in 2022.

Whether or not Kelly loses is dependent on who is President. If Republicans want to beat her they are going to have to sacrifice Trump's presidency because another Trump midterm would not be good for Republicans.