TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Sir Mohamed]

Scott Kelly or Colin Allred

Colin Allred would be a great pick, he literally won a D +1 district in suburban DFW by over 20 points this year. Insane.

Agreed, Allred could indeed give Cruz a run for his money. Appeal in suburbs is key for any Dem to win statewide in TX.

[Sir Mohamed]

Latest chatter I've heard is that Vicente Gonzalez is being recruited though there's no indication that he's interested.

Dems should convince Rep. Collin Alred to launch a senate bid in 2024.

[Sir Mohamed]

What's interesting about Texas Dems is starting in 2014 they started running dedicated liberal candidates instead of moderates. Wendy Davis, Lupe Valdez, MJ Hegar, and ofc Beto O'Rourke were pretty liberal on the issues of guns and abortion. This strategy worked to an extent and got them into single digits, but there seems to be a 3-5% wall they run into. Not saying they need to neccesarily be pro life but maybe support some late term restrictions? And they need to be visibly pro 2A and not be saying stuff like Beto's "hell yes" comment. Background checks are one thing but wanting to confiscate people's guns in Texas of all places is not smart politics. If they can tone down their rhetoric a little bit, they might peel off enough voters to crack that seemingly impenetrable ceiling. That's what Sinema did in AZ, she ran a very centrist general election campaign and managed to open the door for other Dems. Once a Democrat breaks through in Texas, they can start to become more liberal on policy but they need to win first.

I do think there’s some truth to that. I think the ideal person to face Cruz would be someone who is generally pro-gun, but avoids talking about it as much as possible and is pro-oil. A white male veteran, too? But then again, Sinema proved that wasn’t necessary in Arizona then, which was about as red pre-2018 as Texas is now. Once Democrats notch their first statewide victory in Texas, they can then start testing the waters more to see what they can get away with and whatnot.

I wouldn't say pro- or anti-gun. Perhaps someone who comes off as more "pro gun" than a blue state Dem, but remember that a majority of Americans including gun owners support rational gun laws such as background checks. What Dems need is someone who's good at messaging and successfully and credibly counter any attacks that they want to take everyone's guns away.

[Sir Mohamed]

Notice how Cruz has been underwater ever since the snow storm Cancun trip. His approvals are much worse now compared to what they were in October 2018.

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/ted-cruz-job-approval-trend-0

It's certainly encouraging for Dems, though approval ratings are less significant these days than a state's partisan lean. While TX isn't as red as KY at the federal level, atrocious approval ratings didn't stop McTurtleman from handily winning reelection. Cruz obviously isn't going to win by the double digits, though I'd still consider him favored.

[Sir Mohamed]

This makes absolutely no sense. Trump only won TX by 5, Cruz only won by 2.5. TX has continued to move slightly left since then, and Trump is arguably less popular than he was in 2020 at this point

"prez year" does not mean for TX what it meant in 2012. The fact that it would likely be within <5% means it *is* competitive

this is complete pundit galaxy brain

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1653759536086364165

Cook always had weird ratings. Even I think TX-Sen is only Lean R as we speak, especially with Allred now in the race.

[Sir Mohamed]

Gutierrez is getting smoked tonight. It will be Allred vs Cruz confirmed now.

...It's Hegar v. Cornyn all over again.

Not quite. Cruz is more offensive than Cornyn and Allred is more known than Hegar; so Dems have taken this race more seriously than they ever took TX-Sen. I def think Cruz is favored but would be suprised if he won by Cornyn unless some huge skeleton comes out about Allred

...It's Beto v. Abbott all over again.

Cruz was the reason 2018 was so close. Not because Beto was a star which he obviously wasn’t considering his past few campaigns.

He still ran a good senate campaign in 2018 though. His later campaigns flopped obviously. So 2018 was a now or never moment for him. Let's see whether Allred can do better.

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, it's certainly bad optics. Whether it sticks, we have to see. Not that I expected this seat to flip though.

Texas is going to require another cycle at least.

Yup, I think the other seat could be in play with Cornyn retiring in 2026 during a Trump midterm. Otherwise, Dems may have a shot in the national election after 2024 that has them winning.

If this race is indeed gone, the Dem path to keeping the senate as almost eliminated, given WV is a safe pickup for the GOP and there's no other target left (FL is Safe R). Even if Biden is reelected, everything else has to go right, OH and MT in particular.