Monthly “Rate” House & Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House: Likely R

Senate: Tilt D (whoever wins the Senate wins 2 out of Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania)

The House isn't gone with most of the battleground states are in WI, PA, VA, IL, CA, and AZ, and Latino districts in TX and FL.

Yes TX is gonna gain seats 4 but Rs are gonna lose seats in CA, NY and IL

I think this is right.  The House is basically gone, but Democrats benefit from the Senate map this time so there is reverse 2018 potential. 

[Gracile]

Senate: Tossup
House: Lean R, but close to Likely R

[Coolface Sock #42069]

People who are putting Lean R or better ratings on the Senate, exactly which Democratic seats do you see Republicans winning, and why do you feel so confident about all the Republicans in vulnerable seats?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People want to see D's lose badly in a Midterm and to put ratings on these races with 21 months left and we don't have our user predictions up is silly.

Just like Progressive Moderate has an R favored Senate map the day after the 2020 Election assuming Ducey was gonna run. He still has Mark Kelly losing and Mark Kelly is the favorite now

We don't know the new normal yet next yr and we got a long way to go

[S019]

House: Likely R

Senate: Lean R without DC statehood, Tossup with DC statehood

[WIResident]

I’m sure there will be a million threads like this. Maybe just have one that people update how they feel every month (or every week once we get to August ‘22

Rate the House and Senate:


Senate: Tilt R (without statehood, Lean D with it)
•NH & (1 of GA/NV/AZ) flip to GOP • PA flip to DEM•

House: Likely R

Both the House and Senate are Tossups for now, House will probably be Likely R after redistricting but that hasn't happened yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate Leans D with D's netting WI/PA and we don't know yet about GA since Kemp is favored and it's a Runoff state
AZ, NH, NV are slight favs for Inc

I can see a narrow D majority, TX and FL are netting six new seats but inc Govs Cuomo, Cooper, Pritzker, Whitmer and Cali are gonna get rid of RS in Redistricting too

Then there is the Fitzpatrick seat, in a D+3.5 Environment, with Fetterman winning, I can see Fitzpatrick losing this time

It won't be a D+9 Environment, but a D+2.9 can and will happen unless Economy gets better next yr

WI is vulnerable to a D takeover, Evers legalized weed partially

[Water Hazard]

Senate: strong Lean R
House: weak Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senate: strong Lean R
House: weak Safe R

..

You wish Johnson and Toomey win only by 390K votes on the back of Hillary Clinton emails they won't win again

[Meatball Ron]

House: Likely R (even if this is an atypical midterm / a blue-leaning environment, I just really struggle to see how this doesn't flip given how narrow the margin is and redistricting alone would be enough to flip it)

Senate: Tilt D (simply on the basis that no current incumbent is an underdog - if we think NH and PA are both roughly coin flips, the median outcome still feels like a 50/50 Senate, but this could certainly become worse for Dems as the national environment changes or if GOP scores good candidates in GA/AZ/NV; could also get better for Dems is Kelli Ward types emerge as the favorites in all of those states)

That's literally not true though, infact, unless Republicans try cracking Indianapolis or decide to do some TX really dummymander, there are more ways for Democrats to net more relatively safe seats through redistricting when you do the math. I don't get why everyone is defaulting to this when it's simply not true.

I can give you a whole list of seats Democrats are likely to gain post re-districting:

-If Alabama loses a seat, a Birmingham based seat would likely be added, and even if it weren't that's still a net loss for R because they have to cut one of their own seats
-In Arizona, AZ-1 and/or AZ-2 or their equivalents are likely to get safer
-In Cali, there are several R districts that are at risk
-Colorado will likely end up being 5-3
-DC could add a seat for Ds if admitted, same with PR
-In Illinois, IL-14 will likely be shored up and an R district is likely to be cut
-In MD, Dems could go 8-0
-In MN, an R district will likely be cut if MN loses a seat
-In NV, 3 & 4 will likely be shored up
-In NH, we're either getting 2 swing districts or 1 safe D v 1 safe R district
-In NY, NY-2, NY-11, NY-24, NY-18, NY-19 all have potential to get bluer while one of the R districts is cut
-Oregon is likely to gain a seat and we may very well end up with a 5-1 map
-In Texas, Republicans will have to cede 7 & 32 to Ds and 23 pretty much has to get bluer to comply with VRA. Even after that it would be difficult to avoiding a dummymander without ceding something else
-In VA, population changes and such should make VA-2 and VA-7 safer D, and VA-1 may get bluer too
-WA-8 will probably be shored up
-West Virginia is likely to lose a seat

Republicans certainly have their own list of things they can do too, but there are quite a few things that could and probably will happen that will put Democrats in a better standing too. Overall, I would say it more or less cancels out and would just make a lot of seats safer in either direction than they currently are, meaning Republicans will have fewer targets.

Inshallah