IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[ON Progressive]

Todd Rokita released a children's book attacking Messer.

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/behind-closed-doors/2018/04/25/indiana-senate-race-2018-rokita-childrens-book-messer-braun/546499002/

[ON Progressive]

Suddenly Andrew wants to give rational analysis and consider the bigger picture when a poll shows good news for a Democrat, when we all know if it had Donnelly down 20 he'd be the first one declaring him doomed.

“Donnelly down by 20 in IN-03. This goes against the rising numbers in the GCB for Democrats.”

First of all, his name isn't Andrew.

Secondly, while the IN-03 numbers look good for Donnelly, polling of individual districts can be really imprecise, and this is a secondary question in one poll for one district. It doesn't change my perception of the race as a tossup. If the Senator were that well-positioned, Id like to see it in a statewide poll.

Obviously one individual district poll isn't super reliable. The entire point was that Andrew would not care about these concerns and would treat it as gospel if it showed bad news for Donnelly rather than good news.

You might be right, but we should still keep in mind that, no matter his motives, Limo having concerns about the one IN-03 poll is a good take, and healthy caution is always warranted.  He's not some sinister dude named Andrew, he's a 15 year old kid named redacted who's trying to make sense of an election environment that hasn't happened since he was five.

If he jumps on an indicator as unreliable as this one IN-03 poll for a different race that has different implications, we should just throw his arguments regarding this IN-03 poll back at him.

His age is not an excuse here. I don't remember a Dem favorable midterm in my lifetime myself, and I'm not going around concern trolling like he does.

[ON Progressive]

Nobody actually changes their vote solely because of a Supreme Court confirmation vote. Most Americans can't even name a single SCOTUS judge after all.

The only people who care about SCOTUS picks are those very plugged in, and the very plugged in tend to be very partisan.

[ON Progressive]

Nobody actually changes their vote solely because of a Supreme Court confirmation vote. Most Americans can't even name a single SCOTUS judge after all.

The only people who care about SCOTUS picks are those very plugged in, and the very plugged in tend to be very partisan.

Probably true - but Kavanaugh's confirmation has been percolating outside the usual sphere of political junkies, for obvious reasons.

Yeah, and it's not exactly something that is benefiting Republicans given that he is the least popular Supreme Court nominee in history. In fact, I'm pretty sure Kavanaugh is the only SCOTUS nominee to ever have negative net favorability.

[ON Progressive]

If Kavanaugh is confirmed, with it looks like he will, we will be on to another crazy news story topic by the time the midterms come around and everyone (especially Republicans who may be upset now) will have forgotten about this by then.

Even if he isn't, everyone will forget about it because American voters have incredibly short memories and Trump would likely just nominate someone else with less controversy.

[ON Progressive]

Nelson & Donnelly as far as we know will vote NO.

And Tester too.

https://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/montana-sen-jon-tester-will-vote-against-kavanaugh-confirmation/article_fc3364f3-001b-5b3d-a56d-2e2894b3f409.html

That's not surprising. Tester is the most liberal of the red state Democrats. Also, did anyone seriously think anyone who voted against Gorscuh was going to vote for Kavanaugh?

[ON Progressive]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics/joe-donnelly-but-awkward-moment-diversity/index.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is this the deathblow to Donnelly's campaign?

This will shift almost zero votes, if it shifts any. If he loses, it won't be because of this.

[ON Progressive]

snip

Thanks for posting this, I will definitely be watching this one on Tuesday. One of the most satisfying things in life is to see anti-LGBT a-holes lose elections to LGBT candidates.