Will China ever invade Taiwan?

[opebo]

No nation will ever dump all its dollars.  no nation would ever put itself in a position where it cannot buy oil on the open market.

Oil will soon be denominated in Euros. 

In the above argument between Al and Goldie, I would have to agree with Al.  Those who rule China couldn't care less about the opinion of the outside world or of a mere 100 million of their subjects.  Its a cultural thing, and they have a fairly awful culture.  Not the worst in the world, by any means, but a fairly bad one.  And halitosis.  I could barely stand to go indoors when I visited Singapore!

[opebo]

 

For me the correctly strategy for the Taipei regime would be to work out a deal directly with the PRC regime ASAP.  One day the PRC might just pay the price the USA is asking for if it sees too much risk in taking care of this issue on its own without the USA.

I liked your chicken-in-a-cage story.  But wouldn't getting nuclear weapons be a better option for the Taiwanese nation?  Certainly shouldn't be so hard to get..

I would love to see that!

[opebo]

 

For me the correctly strategy for the Taipei regime would be to work out a deal directly with the PRC regime ASAP.  One day the PRC might just pay the price the USA is asking for if it sees too much risk in taking care of this issue on its own without the USA.

I liked your chicken-in-a-cage story.  But wouldn't getting nuclear weapons be a better option for the Taiwanese nation?  Certainly shouldn't be so hard to get..

I would love to see that!

I am afraid not.  Both the farmer (USA) and store owner (PRC) already identified the chicken from gettings the keys (getting nukes) as a threat to the deal they will make in the future.  PRC already announced that any attempts on ROC regime to get nukes will result in an all out assult.  ROC actually had a secret nuke program until the late 1980s and the USA forced them to shut it down once they found out.  Same thing, both USA and PRC have a deal to make and no one (or chicken) will stop them from making this deal.  Both sides are still probing each other on the exact details of such a deal but deal they will.  This would explain why Bush was very angry whenever there is any talk of Taiwan Independence.  It is taking the goods he plan to sell out of his hands.

I'm just surprised that it is that hard to get nukes!  Taiwan is a pretty advanced country. 

As for American motivations, it is hard to imagine that any token 'concessions' they could get in return for abandoning Taiwan would be as effective a block to Chinese power as a nuclear armed Taiwan would be.

[opebo]

No nation will ever dump all its dollars.  no nation would ever put itself in a position where it cannot buy oil on the open market.

Oil will soon be denominated in Euros. 

In the above argument between Al and Goldie, I would have to agree with Al.  Those who rule China couldn't care less about the opinion of the outside world or of a mere 100 million of their subjects.  Its a cultural thing, and they have a fairly awful culture.  Not the worst in the world, by any means, but a fairly bad one.  And halitosis.  I could barely stand to go indoors when I visited Singapore!

Oil switching to Euros will not happen until the EU shows it is united and not in danger of falling apart.  The current build of the EU makes that impossible.  To get a new COnstitution they need the whole membership to approve it, and that ain't happening.  It might even fail in France.

Also, Euros cannot replace the greenback until they stop translating the value of member curruncies to Euros by comparing both to dollars.

Even considering these minor peccadilloes, the EU is resoundingly better run than the United States, from an economic perspective.

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Real Man?  What are you talking about?  But the coal fetish line was good.  I like coal a lot myself though.

[opebo]

Latest poll on Taiwan Province shows only 49% will be willing to fight in the event of a Mainland invasion.  For college students, only 35% are willing to fight.  Main reason cited for unwillingness to fight is the basic fact that Taiwan cannot win in such a conflict so why bother. 

I think those college students assume they'll all be able to escape to Canada.

[opebo]

Why would Taiwanese people think they could reach Canada? What are they going to do, swim?

Talking about emmigration.