Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[lfromnj]

Y'all really need to breathe though. The Wisconsin Supreme Court will have next to no impact on your life unless you happen to live in the state of Wisconsin. Which at least 90% of Atlas does not.

technically redistricting maps in 2020?

[lfromnj]

I am done with this state and WI politics. Now we have an anti-LGBT SCOTUS who supports conversion therapy and created a school firing LGBT teachers and students. On top of that, Evers won't be able to undo any of the mess Walker has made.

My question is WHY were Republicans so motivated to vote this year?

because Rs actually donated money Hagedorn while D's donated 27 per person to Bernie.

[lfromnj]

Can someone explain how dems got 79% in Dane? Sure Dane is trending D and turnout was exceptionally high but 79%?. Is this likely to remain in 2020? Will Dane still be 79% D when Wisconsin is won by under 1 point in 2020?

woke #resistance educated white liberals. They will have the highest turnout of any group as long as trump is president.

[lfromnj]

Most Wisconsin voters are hardcore partisans with a few idiotic swing voters in between.(idiotic because they vote for both Baldwin and Walker) This probably doesn't hurt Evers that much.

[lfromnj]

Evers is very popular:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1233107866925568006?s=20

Popular but definitely not like Desantis or even Brian Kemp who I would call very popular.

[lfromnj]

This is the last of WW2 veterans in office, RIP.

[lfromnj]

Time for Stalinist margins to come from Dane

[lfromnj]

For some reason they will still get it in faster than California.

[lfromnj]

It's kinda looking like high turnout all around.

Yes, it's impressive when you consider the coronavirus and the botched attempt to extend voting. Wisconsinites really seem to pay attention, despite all the talk about voter suppression from Republicans that was going to severely limit turnout. Really the only voter suppression that came to surface was from dumbass mayors and elections officials like Green Bay's that turned down help for their TWO polling locations for a city of 100K.

I think voter access probably does help with turnout a bit. but its probably at this point just a cultural issue, California has super easy voting where some people even come to your house to collect your ballot and people still don't vote.

I am speaking in general terms in a regular non pandemic election btw.

[lfromnj]

WOW isn't even trending left really lol, I guess Waukesha is but not too much, its really just Ozaukee.

[lfromnj]

I gotta say something that's way more shocking than the Supreme Court race is Neubauer's re-election to the 2nd district Court of Appeals. She lost the district by 27 points (!!) to Hagedorn in her Supreme Court run yet won re-election 54-46 against a conservative challenger. I thought it was very unlikely that she would win given the district and her run for SC. This district is basically the heart of GOP strength in SE Wisconsin. I'll have to dissect that result by county later, but my guess based on those numbers is that Bugenhagen (the challenger) only won Waukesha and Washington, and lost everywhere else.

Yeah there were random tweets bragging about Scott walkers judges losing by 20 points when that was Milwaukee county which IK the local GOP overperforms but still nothing amazing, Neubauer's win is amazing.

[lfromnj]

Looks like Marsy's Law passed by a landslide.

[lfromnj]

Looks like Marsy's Law passed by a landslide.

Yes, very sad but expected when it sounds so nice and helpful but nobody really knew what it actually does.

Yep. I voted against it.

I voted against as well, but my goodness I was not expecting it. I’m surprised nobody ran any anti-Marsy’s Law ads.

What does the law say?

Traditionally, a prosecutor is required to provide a defendant with evidence that could show innocence (exculpatory evidence). If the prosecution does not provide it, it may require a new trial.[40] Under Marsy's Law, however, a victim would be able to refuse to provide that evidence to the defendant, the court, and the jury.[41]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marsy%27s_Law

[lfromnj]

What was the margin in river hills?

[lfromnj]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

Does the governor have an say in redistricting

Yes, Evers can veto maps by the Legislature.

is there going to be a more fair map assuming the GOP doesn't get super majorities

For what?

Congressionally? Net effect is WI07 which is still Safe R moving a touch left and WI03 moving right and WI01 moving left.  WI02 and WI04 which are mega packs aren't really going to be unpacked as they are fairly natural. A court map might fully unite WOW but WOW although still staunchly Republican is no longer a mega sink for the GOP to counteract the effects of the previous 2.


Legislatively- yeah a fairer map would help WI Ds but they are pretty incompetent and they struggle to win many fair districts at the legislative level. the SW legislative district that mostly covers Grant county and 1 or 2 other towns was Evers +1 but voted for the R incumbent by 20. Democrats don't deserve to win a legislative majority unless they can actually start winning seats like those and a bit beyond upto say around Walker +4?

The 12 point popular vote legislative victory but barely getting above the super minority mark happened due to uncontested seats.

Also redistricting goes to the WI supreme court which is currently 4 R-3 D and generally composed of partisan hacks on both ways although Hagedorn feels a bit less loyalty to the state GOP and has been the swing vote recently and he would just output a genuinely fair map based on COI which involves keeping WOW together but also keeping Dane and Milwaukee whole and mostly whole which still hurts D's at a partisan level. Although there is a decent argument for WI01 to take 25k from SE Waukesha county due to population equality concerns.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/beth_rep/status/1478844099302236169
Trump +2 seat. Will have to slightly expand into deep red territory.

[lfromnj]

4-3 decision in Wisconsin against the GOP. I wonder which conservative justice provided the 4th vote?

[lfromnj]

4-3 decision in Wisconsin against the GOP. I wonder which conservative justice provided the 4th vote?

I'd be surprised if it wasn't Hagedorn?

It's genuinely amazing how much you lack a sarcasm detector, truly sensational.

[lfromnj]

We’re still pending redistricting, but this is not good news for Dems.  She won this district 51%-49% in 2018 as an established incumbent.  Superminority, here we come...

https://twitter.com/senbewley/status/1488623479301750785?s=21

Assuming this flips R's would have 22 senate seats although Dems have a pretty solid chance of picking up SD13 . It is currently Trump+19 but basically it will face the brunt of the Milwaukee district push westward while taking more of Dane County. On the other hand SD 31 is also there for the GOP to flip.  The remaining Dem seats are either not up or are safe. The Janesville seat is maybe on the very edge of winnable for the GOP.

[lfromnj]

State house maps will be 64 Trump seats in the state house and 22 in the state senate.   The 66th Seat for the GOP is still Biden +7 so Ever's will still maintain a veto as long as he wins and Democrats don't completely mess up.

R's are moderately favored to get a supermajority in the state senate. One rural D is retiring in a Trump +10(Walker +1) seat in the NW so that should be Lean to  Likely R, while the 2 most vulnerable R seats is 1 Trump +2 seat in Appleton where the incumbent R senator won by 7 points in 2018 in a similar seat and one Biden +1 seat that straddles the Waukesha Milwaukee border that was moved from Biden +9 to Biden +0.5. (Walker +14) The R state senator won by 3 in the previous seat. It still is vulnerable for the future if trends continue but it is very much Likely to go R for 2022. Lastly there is a vulnerable D senator in a Trump +3 seat that was Evers +3 in 2018

Biggest change from Evers map is that suburban Milwaukee seat going from Biden +18(Evers drew 7 black majority districts and one of them got placed here) to Biden +1.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1519041196521361409

R Senator in Biden +8 that is now Biden +1 in suburban Milwaukee is retiring after all. Gives D's a limited chance at winning this seat.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1519041196521361409

R Senator in Biden +8 that is now Biden +1 in suburban Milwaukee is retiring after all. Gives D's a limited chance at winning this seat.

There is no Biden + 1 senate seat in Milwaukee; the only real competative seat is a Biden + 17 which should lean Dem

Nope remember the SCOTUS case. The GOP maps were picked. Moved from Biden +17 to Biden +1.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1519041196521361409

R Senator in Biden +8 that is now Biden +1 in suburban Milwaukee is retiring after all. Gives D's a limited chance at winning this seat.

There is no Biden + 1 senate seat in Milwaukee; the only real competative seat is a Biden + 17 which should lean Dem

Nope remember the SCOTUS case. The GOP maps were picked. Moved from Biden +17 to Biden +1.

Oh I think I’m getting the maps messed up mb. Prolly at least Lena R for 2022 but something to watch down the road

Likely R. Rs currently hold a biden +8 seat.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1547945468507721728

Other than the fact its Hooters is there anything more to this story than a mislabelm

[lfromnj]

As for Kleefischhttps://mobile.twitter.com/JULIEsList1/status/1539953461910986753

Tbf though, basically all American politicians have become more liberal on the issue of gay marriage over the past 15 years.

Nonetheless, its cool she says she will not end birth control or gay marriage, but she can’t really say she’d end them either just cause of public opinion. She also isn’t particularly assertive in how she phrases it which doesn’t make me confident if it came down to it she’d hold true to her words.

I mean Youngkin explicitly said he doesn't support it and still won . He even did this during the GE. Meanwhile she's in the primary  where it mostly hurts to support gay marriage(mostly because most GOPers who may even be fine with it are mostly apathetic.)