Cyprus 2023 Presidential election: (1st round: 5 Feb; 2nd round: 12 Feb)

[Mike88]

In a few weeks, Cyprus will head to the polls to elect a new President. Incumbent President Nicos Anastasiades, from the center-right Democratic Rally (DISY), is barred from running for a third term. There are several candidates, but according to polls only 3 have a chance:

- Nikos Christodoulides, former Foreign Affairs minister (2018-2022) and former DISY member. Supported by DIKO, center-left, and other parties from left to right;
- Averof Neofitou, DISY President;
- Andreas Mavroyiannis, supported by the left-wing AKEL;

Polls suggest that Christodoulides is the favorite to win both rounds, either against Neofitou or Mavroyiannis. There's also a too close to call race for 2nd place between Neofitou and Mavroyiannis.

The last poll available, from CYMAR conducted between 9 and 16 January:

1st round:

40.0% Nikos Christodoulides
22.5% Andreas Mavroyiannis
21.3% Averof Neofitou
  5.0% Christos Christou
  3.8% Achilleas Demetriades
  2.5% George Colocassides
  2.5% Constantinos Christofides
  2.5% Other minor candidates

2nd round:

64.9% Nikos Christodoulides
35.1% Averof Neofitou

64.6% Nikos Christodoulides
35.4% Andreas Mavroyiannis

The first round is schedule for 5 February and a second round, if necessary, will be held a week later on 12 February.

Wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Cypriot_presidential_election

[Mike88]

Christodoulidis' campaign has been pretty vague about where he stands on a lot of things. Averof is mostly campaigning on continuing the policies of Anastasiadis while Mavroyiannis is portraying himself as the candidate for change.

Do you think he's the favorite only because he's not supported by either the AKEL and DISY, aka, the "establishment" parties? Even though he was a member of DISY just 2 years ago.

[Mike88]

Two recent polls are showing a decrease in Christodoulides numbers and Neofytou closing in on the 1st round:

Noverna poll:

32.6% Christodoulides
25.9% Neofytou
23.9% Mavroyiannis

Analytica Market Research poll:

30.3% Christodoulides
24.0% Neofytou
23.6% Mavroyiannis

[Mike88]

Voting is underway. Turnout, until midday, stood at 33.7%, 3.5% higher that at the same hour in the 2018 election.

https://twitter.com/politis_news/status/1622179835459125250

The turnout rate until 12:00 is 33.7%, as announced by the Chief Electoral Officer, Kostas Constantinou.

[Mike88]

3pm turnout at 55.6%.

[Mike88]

Polls close in half a hour. At 5pm, 67.6% of voters had cast a ballot, 1.4% more than in 2018.

[Mike88]

Exit polls:

PIK:

30.5-33.5% Christodoulidis
26.5-29.5% Neofytou
26.5-29.5% Mavroyiannis

Sigma

31-35% Christodoulidis
26-30% Mavroyiannis
25-29% Neofytou

Alpha:

31.4-35.4% Christodoulidis
24.9-28.9% Mavroyiannis
24.1-28.1% Neofytou

ANT1:

32.7-35.4% Christodoulidis
25.7-28.3% Mavroyiannis
23.5-26.1% Neofytou

Omega:

30.0-34.0% Christodoulidis
26.5-30.5% Mavroyiannis
24.5-28.5% Neofytou

Too close to call in the race for who will face Christodoulidis in the 2nd round.

[Mike88]

First returns are coming in.

[Mike88]

119 out of 1,147 precincts counted:

38.4% Christodoulidis
26.3% Neofytou
23.3% Mavroyiannis
  5.8% Christou
  6.2% Others

71.0% Turnout

[Mike88]

With 266 out of 1,147 precincts counted, Mavroyiannis has surpassed Neofytou:

33.9% Christodoulidis
27.3% Mavroyiannis
26.4% Neofytou
  6.5% Christou
  5.9% Others

71.0% Turnout

[Mike88]

Mavroyiannis ahead of Neofytou now. Given what's still out, he probably has this.

Yeah, he's almost neck and neck with Christodoulides in Nicosia. Larnaka and Pafos still have a lot of votes to count, but it seems almost certain a Christodoulides vs Mavroyiannis runoff.

[Mike88]

577 out of 1,147 precincts counted, more than half:

32.2% Christodoulidis
28.8% Mavroyiannis
26.2% Neofytou
  6.2% Christou
  6.6% Others

71.4% Turnout

[Mike88]

The gap between Christodoulides and Mavroyiannis continues to narrow and narrow with each new update. Nicosia is counting in lightning speed.

[Mike88]

It's over. A Christodoulides vs Mavroyiannis runoff next Sunday is schedule. However, Christodoulides underperformed expectations and Mavroyiannis surpassed them by a considerable size.

[Mike88]

Final results, 1,147/1,147 counted:

32.0% Nikos Christodoulides, 127,305 votes - Runoff
29.6% Andreas Mavroyiannis, 117,627 - Runoff
26.1% Averof Neofytou, 103,755
  6.0% Christos Christou, 24,002
  2.1% Achilleas Demetriades, 8,124
  1.6% Constantinos Christofides, 6,321
  1.3% George Colocassides, 5,284
  0.6% Alexios Savvides, 2,393
  0.2% Charalampos Aristotelous, 866
  0.2% Celestina de Petro, 574
  0.1% Andronicos Zervides, 341
  0.1% Ioulia Khovrina Komninou, 331
  0.1% Andreas Efstratiou, 299
  0.0% Loukas Stavrou, 165

  1.7% Blank/Invalid, 7,016

72.1% Turnout (404,403)

[Mike88]

I assume that the DISY vote split a bit between Christodoulides and Neofytou. In fact, the results seem somewhat similar with 2018, as Mavroyiannis got basically the same votes, and share, that Malas had in 2018, and Neofytou lost around 30,000 votes, which seem to have went directly to Christodoulides.

[Mike88]

Some attendees support Mavroyiannis

What rationale would a DISY member have to support the AKEL candidate over the centrist candidate? My understanding is that DISY is generally right-wing and AKEL is generally left-wing, though I know Cypriot politics have plenty of peculiarities. Is there some particular wedge issue on which Mavroyannis is likely to be better than Christodoulidis from DISY's perspective?

I believe that some DISY may want to support Mavroyiannis in order to take revenge against Christodoulidis. Like Churchill said "the enemy is on the benches". Could many DISY voters opt to abstain, or is Christodoulidis popular in the party's base? Sometimes, what party top bosses want, is not what the base wants.

[Mike88]

Will there be any polls for the runoff, or are they forbidden?

[Mike88]

Pollsters in Cyprus say that the election is now "too close to call":

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1624312520293875713

(...)
While Christodoulides won 32.04% of the vote in the first round, his lead over Mavroyiannis, who picked up 29.59%, was slimmer than forecast. What has since followed is a fierce battle to win over voters in DISY, for the first time out of the running after its leader, Averof Neofytou, failed to make it to the second round. “It’s going to be very close. Either candidate can win,” said Hubert Faustmann, a professor of history and politics at the University of Nicosia. “Yes, the dynamics currently favour Mavroyiannis, but for centre-right voters AKEL is a political enemy.”
(...)
The suspense deepened this week when, after a rancorous meeting of its political committee, DISY said it would remain in opposition and asked members to vote at will. Leading figures, enraged by what is perceived as a humiliating defeat, reacted furiously to the prospect of aligning with Christodoulides, whose decision to announce his own candidacy was blamed for splitting DISY’s base.

Neofytou highlighted the outrage, telling followers: “History might forget heroes, but it never forgets traitors.”

“In the absence of polls nobody knows what DISY’s traditional base now thinks,” Faustmann said. “The result on Sunday will ultimately depend on whether anger over Christodoulides outweighs their dislike of AKEL.”

Other cabinet figures have also come out in support of Mavroyiannis, for years the lead negotiator under outgoing president Nicos Anastasiades in peace talks aimed at creating a bizonal, bicommunal federation to bridge the island’s divide.
(...)
Greek Cypriot heavyweights – including Ioannis Kasoulidis, the veteran politician who succeeded Christodoulides as foreign minister – announced this week that they believed Mavroyiannis will regain the confidence of the wider international community at a delicate time.
(...)

[Mike88]

At 12:00, turnout stood at 35.4%.

That's 1.7% more than at the same time in the first round and 2.8% more compared with the 2018 second round.

[Mike88]

As of 3pm, turnout is now a bit lower than in the first round: 55.0% vs 55.6%.

However, compared with the 2018 runoff, turnout is up 1.8%.

[Mike88]

Live coverage of PIK TV:

Turnout at 5pm at 67.7%, exactly the same as in the 1st round and 2018. Polls close in 30 minutes and exit polls will be released.

[Mike88]

PIK exit poll:

50.5-53.5% Christodoulides
46.5-49.5% Mavroyiannis

Sigma:

52-56% Christodoulides
44-48% Mavroyiannis

Alpha:

50.2-54.2% Christodoulides
45.8-49.8% Mavroyiannis

Omega:

51.5-55.5% Christodoulides
44.5-48.5% Mavroyiannis

ANT1:

51.9-55.6% Christodoulides
44.4-48.1% Mavroyiannis

[Mike88]

102/1,147 counted:

59.3% Christodoulides
40.7% Mavroyiannis

[Mike88]

According to PIK exit poll, Neofytou 1st round voters went 52% for Christodoulides and 43.5% for Mavroyiannis.