Cyprus 2023 Presidential election: (1st round: 5 Feb; 2nd round: 12 Feb)

[Mike88]

In a few weeks, Cyprus will head to the polls to elect a new President. Incumbent President Nicos Anastasiades, from the center-right Democratic Rally (DISY), is barred from running for a third term. There are several candidates, but according to polls only 3 have a chance:

- Nikos Christodoulides, former Foreign Affairs minister (2018-2022) and former DISY member. Supported by DIKO, center-left, and other parties from left to right;
- Averof Neofitou, DISY President;
- Andreas Mavroyiannis, supported by the left-wing AKEL;

Polls suggest that Christodoulides is the favorite to win both rounds, either against Neofitou or Mavroyiannis. There's also a too close to call race for 2nd place between Neofitou and Mavroyiannis.

The last poll available, from CYMAR conducted between 9 and 16 January:

1st round:

40.0% Nikos Christodoulides
22.5% Andreas Mavroyiannis
21.3% Averof Neofitou
  5.0% Christos Christou
  3.8% Achilleas Demetriades
  2.5% George Colocassides
  2.5% Constantinos Christofides
  2.5% Other minor candidates

2nd round:

64.9% Nikos Christodoulides
35.1% Averof Neofitou

64.6% Nikos Christodoulides
35.4% Andreas Mavroyiannis

The first round is schedule for 5 February and a second round, if necessary, will be held a week later on 12 February.

Wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Cypriot_presidential_election

[thumb21]

If Christodoulidis wins, it will be the first time since 1976 that a president has been elected without the support of either DISY or AKEL, which really shows the weakening of the post-1974 party system that we already saw in the parliamentary elections.

Mavroyiannis and Neofytou have been remarkably close for the entire campaign. It seems very up in the air who will enter the second round.

Christodoulidis' campaign has been pretty vague about where he stands on a lot of things. Averof is mostly campaigning on continuing the policies of Anastasiadis while Mavroyiannis is portraying himself as the candidate for change.

Minor candidates likely to register a noteworthy percentage include the lawyer Achilleas Dimitriadis running on reunification and the far right ELAM leader Christos Christou.

[Mike88]

Christodoulidis' campaign has been pretty vague about where he stands on a lot of things. Averof is mostly campaigning on continuing the policies of Anastasiadis while Mavroyiannis is portraying himself as the candidate for change.

Do you think he's the favorite only because he's not supported by either the AKEL and DISY, aka, the "establishment" parties? Even though he was a member of DISY just 2 years ago.

[thumb21]

Christodoulidis' campaign has been pretty vague about where he stands on a lot of things. Averof is mostly campaigning on continuing the policies of Anastasiadis while Mavroyiannis is portraying himself as the candidate for change.

Do you think he's the favorite only because he's not supported by either the AKEL and DISY, aka, the "establishment" parties? Even though he was a member of DISY just 2 years ago.

There's a definately an element of his support that is a rejection of the two main parties but he is also popular in his own right. He took a significant chunk of DISY voters with him - in addition to the support he gets from the parties that endorsed him.

[oldtimer]

Christodoulidis' campaign has been pretty vague about where he stands on a lot of things. Averof is mostly campaigning on continuing the policies of Anastasiadis while Mavroyiannis is portraying himself as the candidate for change.

Do you think he's the favorite only because he's not supported by either the AKEL and DISY, aka, the "establishment" parties? Even though he was a member of DISY just 2 years ago.

My view exactly.

He's an "Establishment" candidate running a fake independent campaign because his original party's choice couldn't win, it's something you typically see in greek local elections.

[Mike88]

Two recent polls are showing a decrease in Christodoulides numbers and Neofytou closing in on the 1st round:

Noverna poll:

32.6% Christodoulides
25.9% Neofytou
23.9% Mavroyiannis

Analytica Market Research poll:

30.3% Christodoulides
24.0% Neofytou
23.6% Mavroyiannis

[thumb21]

The Metron Analysis poll gives us some more figures in addition to presidential voting intention.

Candidate approval ratings:
Christodoulidis: 56 - 38
Mavroyiannis: 52 - 39
Neofytou: 39 - 57
Dimitriadis: 37 - 42
Christou: 29 - 57

View of Anastasiadis' second term:
Positive - 44
Negative - 44

Direction of the country:
Right direction - 28
Wrong direction - 61

Presidential vote (with undecided):
Christodoulidis - 27
Neofytou - 22
Mavroyiannis - 21

Presidential vote (without undecided):
Christodoulidis - 32
Neofytou - 26
Mavroyiannis - 25

[Logical]

What are the candidates' position on achieving reunification?

[thumb21]

What are the candidates' position on achieving reunification?

Reunification is something that most people say they support but when you get to the specifics, you start to lose people. All of the candidates are in favour of reunification except for Christou, just not reunification in this way or that way!

The 3 major candidates all say that they support a bizonal bicommunal federation. Mavroyiannis argues for it a bit more forcefully while Christodoulidis is backed by EDEK and DIKO who are generally less willing to compromise on the issue. An important disclaimer is that all of this is theoretical because the Turkish leadership is no longer interested in reunification anyway.

[thumb21]

The first round is tommorrow. Polls will be open from 7am to 6pm (UTC+2). After that, exit polls will come out and full results should be complete a few hours after that.

Polling average:
Christodoulidis - 34%
Mavroyiannis - 24%
Neofytou - 24%

[Mike88]

Voting is underway. Turnout, until midday, stood at 33.7%, 3.5% higher that at the same hour in the 2018 election.

https://twitter.com/politis_news/status/1622179835459125250

The turnout rate until 12:00 is 33.7%, as announced by the Chief Electoral Officer, Kostas Constantinou.

[Mike88]

3pm turnout at 55.6%.

[Mike88]

Polls close in half a hour. At 5pm, 67.6% of voters had cast a ballot, 1.4% more than in 2018.

[thumb21]

The official results page, results will begin to show up here soon: http://live.elections.moi.gov.cy/English/PRESIDENTIAL_ELECTIONS_2023/Islandwide

[Mike88]

Exit polls:

PIK:

30.5-33.5% Christodoulidis
26.5-29.5% Neofytou
26.5-29.5% Mavroyiannis

Sigma

31-35% Christodoulidis
26-30% Mavroyiannis
25-29% Neofytou

Alpha:

31.4-35.4% Christodoulidis
24.9-28.9% Mavroyiannis
24.1-28.1% Neofytou

ANT1:

32.7-35.4% Christodoulidis
25.7-28.3% Mavroyiannis
23.5-26.1% Neofytou

Omega:

30.0-34.0% Christodoulidis
26.5-30.5% Mavroyiannis
24.5-28.5% Neofytou

Too close to call in the race for who will face Christodoulidis in the 2nd round.

[Mike88]

First returns are coming in.

[Mike88]

119 out of 1,147 precincts counted:

38.4% Christodoulidis
26.3% Neofytou
23.3% Mavroyiannis
  5.8% Christou
  6.2% Others

71.0% Turnout

[Mike88]

With 266 out of 1,147 precincts counted, Mavroyiannis has surpassed Neofytou:

33.9% Christodoulidis
27.3% Mavroyiannis
26.4% Neofytou
  6.5% Christou
  5.9% Others

71.0% Turnout

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mavroyiannis ahead of Neofytou now. Given what's still out, he probably has this.

[Mike88]

Mavroyiannis ahead of Neofytou now. Given what's still out, he probably has this.

Yeah, he's almost neck and neck with Christodoulides in Nicosia. Larnaka and Pafos still have a lot of votes to count, but it seems almost certain a Christodoulides vs Mavroyiannis runoff.

[thumb21]

Mavroyiannis is getting slightly less than Malas in most places that reported have reported so far - I think he's holding up well, more than enough to get into the second round.

[Mike88]

577 out of 1,147 precincts counted, more than half:

32.2% Christodoulidis
28.8% Mavroyiannis
26.2% Neofytou
  6.2% Christou
  6.6% Others

71.4% Turnout

[Mike88]

The gap between Christodoulides and Mavroyiannis continues to narrow and narrow with each new update. Nicosia is counting in lightning speed.

[Mike88]

It's over. A Christodoulides vs Mavroyiannis runoff next Sunday is schedule. However, Christodoulides underperformed expectations and Mavroyiannis surpassed them by a considerable size.

[Mike88]

Final results, 1,147/1,147 counted:

32.0% Nikos Christodoulides, 127,305 votes - Runoff
29.6% Andreas Mavroyiannis, 117,627 - Runoff
26.1% Averof Neofytou, 103,755
  6.0% Christos Christou, 24,002
  2.1% Achilleas Demetriades, 8,124
  1.6% Constantinos Christofides, 6,321
  1.3% George Colocassides, 5,284
  0.6% Alexios Savvides, 2,393
  0.2% Charalampos Aristotelous, 866
  0.2% Celestina de Petro, 574
  0.1% Andronicos Zervides, 341
  0.1% Ioulia Khovrina Komninou, 331
  0.1% Andreas Efstratiou, 299
  0.0% Loukas Stavrou, 165

  1.7% Blank/Invalid, 7,016

72.1% Turnout (404,403)