Cyprus 2023 Presidential election: (1st round: 5 Feb; 2nd round: 12 Feb)

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I made a map of the first round:


The key:


The map is a bit chaotic, there is plenty of blue but many old DISY strongholds did not show up for Averof, with a much weaker share of the vote and a few having Christodoulidis ahead. Mavroyiannis was able to maintain Malas' 2018 vote share in most places, despite AKEL's weak performance in 2021.

Christodoulidis dominated Pafos district - particularly in Pafos city and surrounding suburbs, where he is from. One place Neofytou did overperform was around Polis in northern Pafos district, where he is from and was mayor for a while.

Mavroyiannis came first in Nicosia - which is usually to the right of other cities and Cyprus as a whole. However, his vote share did not increase, he came first because Averof's share collapsed.

Past Election maps:
2018 Presidential 1st round
2018 Presidential 2nd round
2021 Legislative

[Mike88]

I assume that the DISY vote split a bit between Christodoulides and Neofytou. In fact, the results seem somewhat similar with 2018, as Mavroyiannis got basically the same votes, and share, that Malas had in 2018, and Neofytou lost around 30,000 votes, which seem to have went directly to Christodoulides.

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I assume that the DISY vote split a bit between Christodoulides and Neofytou. In fact, the results seem somewhat similar with 2018, as Mavroyiannis got basically the same votes, and share, that Malas had in 2018, and Neofytou lost around 30,000 votes, which seem to have went directly to Christodoulides.

I agree - and this is backed up by polls from before the election. However, Christodoulidis took a lot of votes from both DISY and AKEL in Pafos. Pafos has a great history of defying the national trend and it is also his home turf, but it is another factor nonetheless and is less visible because Pafos was already orange in 2018.

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There are divisions within DISY over the position to take in the second round. Anastasiadis has been pushing for an endorsement of Christodoulidis, who has offered to give DISY positions in his cabinet. Neofytou, on the other hand, believes that this would be rewarding a betrayal of the party. Most senior DISY members seem to agree with Neofytou. A meeting has been held this evening and is still ongoing, attendees were denouncing Christodoulidis as a defector and heckling the minister of education who endorsed him yesterday. Some attendees support Mavroyiannis, but the concensus seems to be towards taking a neutral position and this is reportedly what Neofytou and Anastasiadis agreed to behind closed doors.

What affect will this mess have on how DISY voters behave in the second round? I don't know. This situation is new, DISY has never been excluded from the second round before.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Some attendees support Mavroyiannis

What rationale would a DISY member have to support the AKEL candidate over the centrist candidate? My understanding is that DISY is generally right-wing and AKEL is generally left-wing, though I know Cypriot politics have plenty of peculiarities. Is there some particular wedge issue on which Mavroyannis is likely to be better than Christodoulidis from DISY's perspective?

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Some attendees support Mavroyiannis

What rationale would a DISY member have to support the AKEL candidate over the centrist candidate? My understanding is that DISY is generally right-wing and AKEL is generally left-wing, though I know Cypriot politics have plenty of peculiarities. Is there some particular wedge issue on which Mavroyannis is likely to be better than Christodoulidis from DISY's perspective?

A lot of it is personal and strictly partisan rather than ideological. Christodoulidis was a DISY member and minister who ran an independent campaign with the support of opposition parties instead of backing the official DISY candidate. The view of many DISY members is that this was an act of betrayal and some would rather back someone who they see as an honest man even if they don't like AKEL.

In terms of substantial political issues, DISY has traditionally been pragmatic on reunification. They are arguably closer to AKEL on the issue than EDEK or DIKO. Some DISY members announced their support for Mavroyiannis on these grounds, but frankly I'm hearing much more about defectors and betrayal than about anything substantial.

[Mike88]

Some attendees support Mavroyiannis

What rationale would a DISY member have to support the AKEL candidate over the centrist candidate? My understanding is that DISY is generally right-wing and AKEL is generally left-wing, though I know Cypriot politics have plenty of peculiarities. Is there some particular wedge issue on which Mavroyannis is likely to be better than Christodoulidis from DISY's perspective?

I believe that some DISY may want to support Mavroyiannis in order to take revenge against Christodoulidis. Like Churchill said "the enemy is on the benches". Could many DISY voters opt to abstain, or is Christodoulidis popular in the party's base? Sometimes, what party top bosses want, is not what the base wants.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see, so it really is mostly about personality and sour grapes. It'd be hilarious if Mavroyannis somehow wins because of that, tbh, though that's highly unlikely.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

what areas voted for Christou? With such a small % of the vote I'm surprised he won anywhere. Are they very rural/very racist areas, or something?

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Its official, DISY decided in the meeting last night to be neutral and allow its members to freely support either candidate. Averof implied pretty strongly that he personally would vote for Mavroyiannis.

what areas voted for Christou? With such a small % of the vote I'm surprised he won anywhere. Are they very rural/very racist areas, or something?

Two villages voted for Christou: Politiko and Kannavkia. Politiko is his home town. There is long standing right wing nationalist strength in Kannavkia and many nearby villages going back to the 60s, which would help explain ELAM's vote share there now. Takis Evdokas got 15% of the vote there in 1968, which was one of his best performances in the country.

[Mike88]

Will there be any polls for the runoff, or are they forbidden?

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Will there be any polls for the runoff, or are they forbidden?

Publication of polls is banned a week before the election, so we'll have to rely on the polls from before the first round.

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The second round is tommorrow. Just like last week, polls will be open from 7am to 6pm (UTC+2), followed by exit polls and after that the results should come in very quickly.

Most polls had Christodoulidis winning with over 60% of the vote. He's still likely to win but Mavroyiannis is probably in a better position than he was when the polling silence started two weeks ago.


Just an update on the positions of the parties/candidates that were eliminated in the first round or didn't endorse:
- ELAM endorsed neither candidate but said they oppose an AKEL-led government.
- The Ecologists also endorsed neither candidate.
- Among the minor candidates, Achilleas Dimitriadis and Constantinos Christofidis endorsed Mavroyiannis while Giorgios Kolokasidis endorsed neither candidate.
- DISY infighting continues. Anastasiadis criticized the behaviour of his party during Tuesday's meeting.

[Mike88]

Pollsters in Cyprus say that the election is now "too close to call":

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1624312520293875713

(...)
While Christodoulides won 32.04% of the vote in the first round, his lead over Mavroyiannis, who picked up 29.59%, was slimmer than forecast. What has since followed is a fierce battle to win over voters in DISY, for the first time out of the running after its leader, Averof Neofytou, failed to make it to the second round. “It’s going to be very close. Either candidate can win,” said Hubert Faustmann, a professor of history and politics at the University of Nicosia. “Yes, the dynamics currently favour Mavroyiannis, but for centre-right voters AKEL is a political enemy.”
(...)
The suspense deepened this week when, after a rancorous meeting of its political committee, DISY said it would remain in opposition and asked members to vote at will. Leading figures, enraged by what is perceived as a humiliating defeat, reacted furiously to the prospect of aligning with Christodoulides, whose decision to announce his own candidacy was blamed for splitting DISY’s base.

Neofytou highlighted the outrage, telling followers: “History might forget heroes, but it never forgets traitors.”

“In the absence of polls nobody knows what DISY’s traditional base now thinks,” Faustmann said. “The result on Sunday will ultimately depend on whether anger over Christodoulides outweighs their dislike of AKEL.”

Other cabinet figures have also come out in support of Mavroyiannis, for years the lead negotiator under outgoing president Nicos Anastasiades in peace talks aimed at creating a bizonal, bicommunal federation to bridge the island’s divide.
(...)
Greek Cypriot heavyweights – including Ioannis Kasoulidis, the veteran politician who succeeded Christodoulides as foreign minister – announced this week that they believed Mavroyiannis will regain the confidence of the wider international community at a delicate time.
(...)

[Mike88]

At 12:00, turnout stood at 35.4%.

That's 1.7% more than at the same time in the first round and 2.8% more compared with the 2018 second round.

[Mike88]

As of 3pm, turnout is now a bit lower than in the first round: 55.0% vs 55.6%.

However, compared with the 2018 runoff, turnout is up 1.8%.

[Mike88]

Live coverage of PIK TV:

Turnout at 5pm at 67.7%, exactly the same as in the 1st round and 2018. Polls close in 30 minutes and exit polls will be released.

[Mike88]

PIK exit poll:

50.5-53.5% Christodoulides
46.5-49.5% Mavroyiannis

Sigma:

52-56% Christodoulides
44-48% Mavroyiannis

Alpha:

50.2-54.2% Christodoulides
45.8-49.8% Mavroyiannis

Omega:

51.5-55.5% Christodoulides
44.5-48.5% Mavroyiannis

ANT1:

51.9-55.6% Christodoulides
44.4-48.1% Mavroyiannis

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http://live.elections.moi.gov.cy/English/PRESIDENTIAL__RUNOFF_ELECTIONS_2023/Islandwide

[Mike88]

102/1,147 counted:

59.3% Christodoulides
40.7% Mavroyiannis

[Mike88]

According to PIK exit poll, Neofytou 1st round voters went 52% for Christodoulides and 43.5% for Mavroyiannis.

[Mike88]

According to PIK exit poll, Neofytou 1st round voters went 52% for Christodoulides and 43.5% for Mavroyiannis.

At the same time, DISY voters in the 2021 legislative election went 69.5% for Christodoulides and 28% for Mavroyiannis.

[Mike88]

503/1,147 counted:

52.7% Christodoulides
47.3% Mavroyiannis

[Mike88]

1,004/1,147 counted:

51.6% Christodoulides
48.4% Mavroyiannis

Limassol, the second largest region, is lagging behind in terms of counting. Here, Christodoulides leads 51.9-48.1%

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Mavroyiannis conceded