What should we do about Assad + ISIS/L? (user search)
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  What should we do about Assad + ISIS/L? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: What should we do about Assad's Regime + ISIS/L?
#1
Take out Assad + ISIS
 
#2
Take out Neither
 
#3
Take out ISIS (but enforce no-fly)
 
#4
Take out ISIS (no no-fly)
 
#5
Take out Assad only
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 57

Author Topic: What should we do about Assad + ISIS/L?  (Read 3006 times)
ingemann
YaBB God
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Posts: 4,363


« on: January 02, 2016, 02:56:15 PM »

Here's what USA could do (and the consequences)

1: Occupying Syria Iraq style; consequences: We would continued violence and ethnic cleansing and a Salafist regime taking power, and a bloody civil war would break out shortly after USA leaves.
2: A real occupation, USA (and allies) place 1 million man in Syria in a several decades long occupation, Syria is remade into a federation or confederation. Syria are allowed to have election but the American occupation forces keep a right to ban parties, medias and veto laws, USA make a trade agreement where all trade barriers between USA and Syria are removed in favour of Syria; after several decades we would likely see a somewhat functional Syrian state.
3: USA remove Assad; genocide, decades long civil war until several Syrian successor states are establihed.
4: USA support the Kurds (what USA do now) against ISIS; ISIS collapse, a autonome Kurdish region are established along the Turkish border, the rebels are slowly bleed todeath by the regime, and Assad likely stay in power with the north and east split between the autonome Kurdish region and Pakistan-style tribal areas.
5: USA stay out, Kobane would have fallen and ISIS would have continued to grow, until Russia and Iran had intervened more active.
6: USA support Assad; it would have alienated the American allies in the region for a quite unpleasant regime (through better than many American allies in the region).

Seeing that USA today would be unwilling to embrace plan 2, I don't think USA have handled this badly. They have given the rebels as little support as they could get away with, they have been as activistic as they needed to be to push Iran to the negotiation over their nuclear arms and to make their allies in the region too angry.
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ingemann
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,363


« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2016, 06:03:49 PM »

NOTA. When either one threatens us here, we stop them here. Otherwise, we stay away.

"Conquest is easy, control is not."
-Kirk, "Mirror, Mirror"


Conquest are usual much harder than control. USA could easily have "controlled" Iraq and Afghanistan, even without increased brutality. It would just demand USA was willing to use the number soldiers which was needed for a occupation (a general rule are 1 soldier for every 20 people in the occupied country) and treated their government as what they were Quesling regimes which was in power because of American power, rather than pretend they had any legitimacy among the general civilian population, from there USA could have developed democratic institution and then allowed free elections.
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ingemann
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,363


« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2016, 04:06:42 PM »

Assad and ISIS have a symbiotic relationship, we should eliminate them both with an overwhelming ground force. Quick, clean, and without lofty goals of promoting democracy.

GENOCIDE MAN SPEAK

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Yes we discovered that after the first quote, after you suggested throwing the only stable parts (outside Rojava) into chaos. 70% of the Syrian population live in government controlled areas, and that's not because those areas was home to 70% of the population before the war. No people have in general fleed the rebel areas for the government areas or abroad, and you suggest in some kind of genocidal mastubation fantasy, to replace the government with warlords.
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