Jim Matheson retiring

[Zioneer]

Wow. Guess the seat is now Love's for the taking. Question to Zioneer and other Utahns: was there any hint of this, and do you think Matheson is gearing up for a future statewide run? Not necessarily soon, he's only in his early 50s.

There was literally no hint of this; he was posting his plans for legislation as soon as this week, and didn't seem tired of Congress in any of his statements. This was completely out of left field.

As for a statewide run, yeah. I think he's going to go for Governor, as it's less likely for him to have to act as he did in Congress. He can be a bit more lefty/moderate and use his personal popularity rather than his votes. If he ran for Senate or continued in the House, he wouldn't be able to do that. If he doesn't run for either, a lobbyist career seems like an easy choice for him.

[Zioneer]

Hahahaha. This has got to be a killer to democrats. R+1 for real! I never expected this and its a shock to me that he did this. But he was getting older. Mia Love next representative for UT-4?

Uhm, not really a killer, spending money to defend an R+14 is somewhat of a waste. That money will be freed up to target Republicans on shaky ground, so it's not without it's upside.

On the other hand, the money Republicans were going to spend on Mia Love against Matheson can also be spent elsewhere, so it's a wash. Plus, Mia Love is now safe (unless a Matheson-esque candidate appears again), so she won't be required to raise a bunch of money and can instead raise money for other GOP candidates.

Also, if elected, Mia Love will be the first black Mormon, black female Republican, and Haitian-American rep.

[Zioneer]

If Former Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon (a popular centrist) gave UT-04 a run, he could potentially lose to Mia Love with dignity (get a vote percentage of high 40s), but no one else could even come close.

[Zioneer]

If Former Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon (a popular centrist) gave UT-04 a run, he could potentially lose to Mia Love with dignity (get a vote percentage of high 40s), but no one else could even come close.

Didn't he lose for Governor by 33 points?

In 2010, and in a statewide election, but yeah. He had good favorables and skated to re-election in the County (which compromises almost half of Matheson's district) easily, though. And I didn't say he would win, just that considering his popularity in Salt Lake, he could make it a decent race.

If Former Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon (a popular centrist) gave UT-04 a run, he could potentially lose to Mia Love with dignity (get a vote percentage of high 40s), but no one else could even come close.

I'm not sure he even lives in the district, but then again, I'm not really sure Matheson lives in the district, either.

You don't need to in Utah.

And as a side note, Huntsman is selling his house in DC and might be coming back to Utah....

[Zioneer]

Matheson was also polling competitively against Herbert, at the height of Herbert's popularity, by the way.

Also, Herbert won't have the GOP gubernatorial nomination to himself; it's an open secret that Utah House Speaker Becky Lockhart wants to be governor (she's actually retiring from the Utah House in 2014 in a really obvious attempt to start fundraising), and will steamroll Herbert if she has to. She's fairly popular, and can call upon a lot of potential legislator endorsements, but is further right than Herbert, so it'll be a bloodbath, which Matheson can take advantage of.

[Zioneer]

What a shame. He was a good guy.

I wonder if this might induce Rocky Anderson to run...

Probably not, Rocky's done with the Democrats. And he especially hates conservative Dems that he feels are bad on civil liberties (Matheson voted for the Patriot Act and all that).

Incidentally, Rocky actually ran for Congress back in 1996 and got 42% of the vote (against crazy person and Congressman Merill Cook, but still).

[Zioneer]

Maybe one of Mittens' many spawn will consider it?

Josh Romney considered running against Matheson in 2008 and 2010 (he was actually approached to do it by the Utah GOP in 2008), so perhaps. He's the only one who could defeat Mia Love for the nomination.

[Zioneer]

It'll be interesting to see the non-Matheson ceiling for Dems in UT-04, assuming the nominee isn't an uber-moderate who overperforms.

[Zioneer]

His internals must have been really bad.

Yep. I doubt his retirement and the guy in NE-2 withdrawing his candidacy within the same time frame are coincidental when Obama's numbers have dropped significantly.

Or he could be preparing for a statewide run, and didn't want to waste money on a close win or close loss. He did say "Yes, sir", when asked if a future statewide run was possible for him.

[Zioneer]

Matheson and McIntyre both supported the government shutdown, did they not?

Yes. Matheson especially has been voting with the Republicans a lot this year, which I presume got tiring after a while.

Honestly, I hate Matheson for being ultra-conservative when I feel a correctly-messaged centrist could win, but I'm sad he's going, since the Utah Dems have no one else, except perhaps his brother Scott and Peter Corroon. Also, he brought in a lot of national Dem spending, which bolstered local Dems a bit.

I'm actually really worried for the Utah Dems right now.

[Zioneer]

Matheson and McIntyre both supported the government shutdown, did they not?

Yes. Matheson especially has been voting with the Republicans a lot this year, which I presume got tiring after a while.

Honestly, I hate Matheson for being ultra-conservative when I feel a correctly-messaged centrist could win, but I'm sad he's going, since the Utah Dems have no one else, except perhaps his brother Scott and Peter Corroon. Also, he brought in a lot of national Dem spending, which bolstered local Dems a bit.

I'm actually really worried for the Utah Dems right now.

If you think Matheson is "an ultra-conservative", just wait for Mia Love to show you what that truly means.....

Oh, I'm not disputing that Mia Love will be an ultra-conservative in Congress, and I don't think a Bernie Sanders type would win in Utah. I just think that on a couple of issues, Matheson could've been a bit more lefty/moderate, and could've still won (or even picked up a couple of votes). I mean, I voted for the guy, would vote for him for Congress again, and will vote for him when he likely goes for governor, but it doesn't mean I have to respect his votes.

[Zioneer]

Matheson was one less vote for John Boehner, regardless of who he voted for as Speaker, he never voted for a Republican.

That is true, and as I understand, even if he couldn't vote for progressive measures himself, as a minority whip he could wrangle up the Dem votes for that kind of legislation.

[Zioneer]

Ben McAdams is a fiscal moderate, and won 55% in the County, so he could be more formidable than you'd think. He also has the strongest campaign staff besides Matheson himself. I think he wants to go for Governor in 2016 (if Matheson doesn't) and wants to leave a legacy in the County Mayor's office though, so I don't think he'll run. My money is on his immediate predecessor, Peter Corroon.

As a side note, Matheson himself only got 27% of the vote in Utah County (home of Provo and BYU), and only 34% in sparsely populated Juab County and 30% in equally sparse Sanpete County in 2012, so a Democratic candidate really doesn't need that part of the district. They really need Salt Lake County.

[Zioneer]

By the way, if anyone's a Daily Kos user, I posted an overview about UT-04 candidates on both sides.

[Zioneer]

The Salt Lake Tribune asked Matheson whether he's considering running for Senate shortly after he announced his plans not to run for reelection.

"Yes, sir," Matheson quickly told the Utah newspaper.

Technically, he said this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Zioneer]

Matheson and McIntyre both supported the government shutdown, did they not?

Yes. Matheson especially has been voting with the Republicans a lot this year, which I presume got tiring after a while.

Honestly, I hate Matheson for being ultra-conservative when I feel a correctly-messaged centrist could win, but I'm sad he's going, since the Utah Dems have no one else, except perhaps his brother Scott and Peter Corroon. Also, he brought in a lot of national Dem spending, which bolstered local Dems a bit.

I'm actually really worried for the Utah Dems right now.

If you think Matheson is "an ultra-conservative", just wait for Mia Love to show you what that truly means.....

Oh, I'm not disputing that Mia Love will be an ultra-conservative in Congress, and I don't think a Bernie Sanders type would win in Utah. I just think that on a couple of issues, Matheson could've been a bit more lefty/moderate, and could've still won (or even picked up a couple of votes). I mean, I voted for the guy, would vote for him for Congress again, and will vote for him when he likely goes for governor, but it doesn't mean I have to respect his votes.

You've said this repeatedly, Zioneer, and frankly I think you and other UT liberals were so used to Matheson winning that you just assumed he always would somehow, and accordingly could've voted, if not Bernie Sanders-style, at least considerably more liberally than he did. But that is belied by the fact his intensely conservative district usually re-elected him by only the narrowest of margins. Several of his races litterally could've been lost by one more vote on even a minor issue that broke the camel's back for a few hundred of his conservative supporters.

You may not appreciate it now, but I think it's clear Jim Matheson voted about as absolutely left-wing as anyone representing UT-4 EVER could've done and still survive.

Eh, I think there were a few minor issues that UT-04 residents don't care about that he could've voted more left-wing on without anyone noticing.

And yeah, his new gerrymandered district would kick him out for any important misstep, but he was entrenched in his old district.

And again, I do respect him for being more Teflon than Reagan, and would (and have) vote for him. It's really just me being dissatisfied with him, even though I know that there's only a couple of issues he could've voted my way on.

I suppose that if he had any other opponent other than Mia Love and if the name at the top of the ticket wasn't Romney, he probably would've won more easily, even with a gerrymandered district. But that's a moot point now. I just hope Matheson's brother or Peter Corroon steps in, they're the only ones who could keep this seat.

[Zioneer]

A Republican pick up unless they really screw it up somehow...

R+1

Oh, they can. I mean, they screwed up in 2012 with Romney at the top of the ticket and Matheson facing a new district, after all.

[Zioneer]

A Republican pick up unless they really screw it up somehow...

R+1

Oh, they can. I mean, they screwed up in 2012 with Romney at the top of the ticket and Matheson facing a new district, after all.

It's really R+1.

I would dispute that if Scott Matheson or Peter Corroon get in and Mia Love is denied the GOP nomination, the Dems could win, but yeah, it's a long shot. Still possible for the GOP to mess up badly though.

[Zioneer]

One thought about Matheson retiring; if he goes for governor, he has about a 50-50 chance of winning at this point (as per PPP's 2011 polls). If he wins, I don't think he'll go anything offensive enough to be booted out, and Utah tends to like their incumbents (Olene Walker notwithstanding). So if elected, he has a good chance of being re-elected governor in 2020. And of course, 2020 is when redistricting happens. So while a Governor Matheson 2.0 couldn't gerrymander the legislative and Congressional districts to be Democratic, and while the GOP could have a huge amount of influence, Matheson's veto (and the destruction of the 2/3s majority in the legislature that Matheson's election would probably bring) would be very useful in increasing Dem strength in Utah.

That's even disregarding the morale boost that a Dem governor would bring, and the change in political dialogue Matheson's election would bring. Utahns who have known nothing but GOP governors for 30 years would suddenly see Dems as being prospective executives.