UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Interesting timing on that , since the court decision pertaining to potential referendums is coming soon.

What's the story about the court case on referendums ? I haven't Heard of it.

And what could the consequences be ?

SNP government here wants the power to hold a binding independence referendum, without the UK Government’s consent. They’ve put forward a (slightly shaky) constitutional argument to the UK Supreme Court to try and get that.

Most coverage/conversations I’ve had suggest that it’s a long shot that the case will be decided in their favour - especially given that the 2014 referendum was explicitly granted via Westminster’s consent, and constitutional matters remain largely reserved to London.

It’s a largely rhetorical fight, best I can tell - although it means Edinburgh either gets their referendum, or the chance to point at London and tell voters they’ve been “denied their democratic right to self-determination”. It’s fairly smart, but rather cynical politics.

[Cassius]

Blackford is a moron so this is a positive development.

[TheTide]

Mhari Black or Tommy Shepherd would be fun.

[Torrain]

Today’s papers seem to be broadly in consensus about the Hunt budget:

• The Mirror: Carnage
• The Guardian: From bad to worse
• The Independent: A grim few years ahead
• The i: UK’s lost decade
• METRO: You’ve never had it so bad
• The Financial Times: Hunt paves way for years of pain
• The Times: Years of Tax Pain Ahead
• The Daily Telegraph: The rhetoric of Osbourne… with the policies of Brown
• The Daily Mail: TORIES SOAK THE STRIVERS (with the chief byline being: “and there was me thinking we voted in the Conservatives!”)

The only exceptions to the narrative are the Daily Express, who are celebrating the survival of the Triple Lock (which their exclusively pensioner audience rely on), and who are basically a Tory Pravda at this point.

[JimJamUK]

Today’s papers seem to be broadly in consensus about the Hunt budget:

As often happens, the immediate reaction wasn’t that bad, but the later reaction may well sink the budget and cause further harm to the Tories in the process.

[Cassius]

Problem is the budget is getting hit from both the left and the right.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though the usual suspects still fawned over Hunt's totally false "you can't borrow your way to growth" canard, and also seemed more exercised by the "clever trap" for Labour than any actual measures.

[Torrain]

First post-budget poll is out. It's only Omnisis - but interesting nonetheless. Waiting for some of the bigger names before jumping to conclusions, but not a great first-impression for the budget:
https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1593613845226000385

[CumbrianLefty]

Actually today's Techne UK poll was also post-AS, and likewise had Labour increasing its lead.

[JimJamUK]

We will wait and see from other pollsters, but worth noting it was Osmosis who had the ‘shock’ 9% for Reform so immediately falling back down to 5% suggests a one off dodgy sample (the other pollster was PeoplePolling whose results I don’t trust are entirely agenda free).

[Conservatopia]

Today a Lord's Private Member Bill backed by both major parties passed one of its final hurdles. It aims to combat so-called "family voting", whereby the patriarch of a family stands over the females in a household amd instructs them on how they should vote. The bill effectively closes a loophole which will allow presiding officers to intervene if they believe family voting is going on.

Family voting took place in 25% of observed polling stations at the last election and disproportionately affects Bangladeshi families, though it of course takes place across many demographics.

I wouldn't expect any change to election results but it's interesting nonetheless, not least because private members bills becoming law is rare.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I believe 21% is a lower share for the Conservatives than Omnisis ever registered while Truss was Prime Minister... (caveats expounded by JimJamUK aside) how ironic would it be if Sunak's budget managed to sink the Tories even more than Truss's proposal did?

[Хahar 🤔]

Today a Lord's Private Member Bill backed by both major parties passed one of its final hurdles. It aims to combat so-called "family voting", whereby the patriarch of a family stands over the females in a household amd instructs them on how they should vote. The bill effectively closes a loophole which will allow presiding officers to intervene if they believe family voting is going on.

Family voting took place in 25% of observed polling stations at the last election and disproportionately affects Bangladeshi families, though it of course takes place across many demographics.

I wouldn't expect any change to election results but it's interesting nonetheless, not least because private members bills becoming law is rare.

Meanwhile in our country we are embracing this sort of voting.

[Estrella]

Somehow I am not surprised Etonians make truck drivers look like well-educated arbiters of culture.

Eton College apologises after allegations pupils jeered visiting state schoolgirls

Eton College has apologised and “sanctioned” a number of pupils after allegations that a group of girls visiting from a nearby state school were subjected to misogynistic language, racial slurs and jeering.

The boys’ private school near Windsor, Berkshire, told the BBC that an investigation took place into the incident which occurred during a speech by Nigel Farage last week.

A person, who said they were a parent of one of the girls who attended the speech, wrote on social media anonymously that the students were booed inside the lecture theatre and were subjected to “racial slurs” and “generally misogynistic comments”. They said of the private school pupils: “Their behaviour was awful.”

The poster also said that Eton boys had cheered Farage’s “worst comments on migrants and Covid”.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Never one to miss an opportunity to stress what is clearly a favourite policy...

https://twitter.com/bphillipsonMP/status/1593696960304881666

[CumbrianLefty]

A policy that is both popular and entirely correct, always the best sort.

[JimJamUK]

Looks a bit more like other pollsters this week (though the pollster claims this shows “widespread disillusionment with both parties” as Labour surge to 47%…).

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1593952017449467905?s=61&t=vpAeKQg...

[CumbrianLefty]

Well in this case "the pollster" basically means Matt Goodwin, nuff said.

[sting in the rafters]

https://twitter.com/tldrnewsuk/status/1594054512452329472?s=21&t=gYT546KOt4p...

[Torrain]

Bit more post-budget polling. Opinium bucks the trend seen in the other three polls, with their characteristically bearish numbers for Labour (but still at 1997 levels - which tells you something about the overall picture).

Still no voting intention numbers from YouGov. They ran a snap poll on the budget itself, but it’s not much use, because “don’t know” gets an overwhelming 48% on all the big questions, and the other responses are all basically within the margin of error.

Deltapoll:

• LAB: 51% (+1)
• CON: 25% (-2)
• LDM: 9% (+3)

Opinium:

• LAB: 45% (-1)
• CON: 28% (=)
• LDM: 9% (+1)
• GRN: 4% (+2)
• SNP: 3% (-1)

[Torrain]

Today a Lord's Private Member Bill backed by both major parties passed one of its final hurdles. It aims to combat so-called "family voting", whereby the patriarch of a family stands over the females in a household amd instructs them on how they should vote. The bill effectively closes a loophole which will allow presiding officers to intervene if they believe family voting is going on.

That feels like a worthwhile bill - especially if the figures are truly that high. Do you have a report/article on the issue you would recommend? It’s something I’ve been tangentially aware of, but haven’t seen discussed this openly until now. It’s oddly hard to Google, given “family voting” produces stories on everything from youth voting to Roe/Dobbs news.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Looks a bit more like other pollsters this week (though the pollster claims this shows “widespread disillusionment with both parties” as Labour surge to 47%…).

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1593952017449467905?s=61&t=vpAeKQg...

That’s great news for Keir Starmer.

[cp]

https://twitter.com/tldrnewsuk/status/1594054512452329472?s=21&t=gYT546KOt4p...

Thankfully there's absolutely no evidence of Starmer promising something only to reneg on it as soon as he's been elected.

[Silent Hunter]

Of the many problems with the British system, the Lords is one of the lower priority ones. It has provided a useful brake on some of the worse ideas.

[Torrain]

I’ve always liked the idea of the Lords as a sort of “House of Technocrats” (to steal another commenter’s phrase), that’s effective at slowing down controversial bills - at least long enough for the bill be dragged through the court of public opinion. Don’t think an elected Senate achieves that.

Having read the write-up in the Guardian, it sounds like Starmer is safeguarding the Commons supremacy over the upper chamber - but it’s not clear whether the new Lords/Senators will be local politicians, the existing technocrats, or a characteristically British mish-mash of the two.

Still a little worried the precedence of an elected upper chamber will eventually undermine the Commons - but I’ll try to reserve judgement until the final report is published.

Lords reform is notoriously hard to achieve though, so I imagine a first-term Labour government would likely end up settling for a “first round” of reform, much like Blair did. Remove the last hereditary peers (with any particular talents offered life peerages to keep them in the Upper House), review the position of the Lords Spiritual, and set a cap on the number of concurrently serving peers (trying to get the Lords down to a more manageable level, probably around/lower than the size of the Commons).