Trump: I WILL WIN VIRGINIA IN 2020

[Non Swing Voter]

it's funny how in 2017 Atlas said Barbara Comstock could win again in 2018 but now Virginia (all of Virginia) is a blue state that is impossible for Trump to win against Sanders, even though a poll just came out a week ago showing Sanders losing to Trump in Virginia.  

[Non Swing Voter]

Possible, though not very likely. He would need NOVA suburbs to stay home in the case of Sanders. Otherwise, he cannot win there.

I think he could beat Buttigieg in VA maybe

Probably not.  Buttigieg would probably play a lot better in NoVa than Sanders would.  To win in Virginia Trump probably needs to face a really weak/far left candidate, so he has the best shot against Sanders or Warren.  Anyone who seems even reasonably moderate has a good chance against Trump.

[Non Swing Voter]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

[Non Swing Voter]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

For a Virginia resident, you don't know much about your state. Bernie, in fact, is the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination at this point in time. Also, no Democrat will lose Virginia.

I love when completely uninformed people make incorrect blanket statements without any source.

Virginia: Trump vs. Sanders   Mason-Dixon   Sanders 45, Trump 51   Trump +6

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/#

[Non Swing Voter]

He will against Bernie.

lol,sanders could lose the landslide in a landslide and he would stilll win Virginia.

Had to hit the unignore for a sec to LOL heartily at this.

[Non Swing Voter]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

For a Virginia resident, you don't know much about your state. Bernie, in fact, is the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination at this point in time. Also, no Democrat will lose Virginia.

I love when completely uninformed people make incorrect blanket statements without any source.

Virginia: Trump vs. Sanders   Mason-Dixon   Sanders 45, Trump 51   Trump +6

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/#

A single outlier poll means nothing.

All we need to know to know that Sanders won't lose Virginia is to look at just about every single election that has happened in the state this past decade.

First off, where do you get that this is an "outlier" poll.  The fact that one of the few polls of the state (and not a hack poll like Rasmussen) shows Sanders losing outside the margin of error means it is NOT a state that is in the bag for any democrat.

And further to that point, every single election that democrats have been winning statewide did not involve a socialist on the ticket.  Ralph Northam was an extremely moderate candidate and thus didn't need to rely on overwhelming margins in NOVA to win.  Sanders will need big margins in NOVA to win and he won't get the kind of margins that Biden would.  He is probably still favored to win but it's far from certain.  Socialism does not play well in NOVA.  A large chunk of voters in NOVA (including democrats) are UMC and pro-capitalist.  NOVA is not all government workers.  Fairfax County has a large tech sector and lots of private industries.  Making an unwise choice in the democratic primary by nominating a weak candidate like Warren/Sanders means that Democrats will have to invest in the state, whereas Biden can write it off.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, to the original point of this thread, it actually makes sense why Trump would want to at least try to win Virginia as there aren't a lot of "winnable" Hillary states with that many electoral votes.  The only other ones are are Colorado and Minnesota.

But if Trump loses PA, MI, and AZ (which is probably the Dems easiest path to victory), neither Minnesota or Colorado would be enough to offset that to secure victory.  He would need at least 11 electoral votes.  Virginia is 13 while Minnesota is 10 and Colorado is 9.  Even Nevada and New Hampshire combined aren't enough.

[Non Swing Voter]

Did people miss the election results from VA in 2017, 2018, and 2019...?

A socialist wasn't at the top of the ticket in any of those elections.  Nor were the congressional candidates that won any of the key races...

[Non Swing Voter]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

For a Virginia resident, you don't know much about your state. Bernie, in fact, is the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination at this point in time. Also, no Democrat will lose Virginia.

"No Republican will win Michigan"
-Atlas Nov 7 2016

Don't forget Pennsylvania.  The day of the 2016 election I said I was concerned about reports of low turnout in Philly and how it could cost Hillary Pennsylvania and I practically got laughed off the board by the wise Bernie bros.

[Non Swing Voter]

Trump could win VA if Bernie or Pete is the nominee

I don't know why everyone here hates Pete but Pete is a good fit for Virginia.  Trump could win if it's Warren or Sanders but I don't think he has a good chance against Buttigieg. 

I'd say odds of winning against Trump by candidate:

Biden: 90% minimum (probably uncontested by Trump)
Klobuchar: 85%
Pete: 85%
Yang: 80%
Bloomberg: 75%
Steyer: 65%
Sanders: 55%
Warren: 50%

[Non Swing Voter]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

For a Virginia resident, you don't know much about your state. Bernie, in fact, is the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination at this point in time. Also, no Democrat will lose Virginia.

"No Republican will win Michigan"
-Atlas Nov 7 2016

And as we all know, VA and MI are two very comparable states with similar electorates and identical political and long-term demographic trends.

Yeah, that was obviously not his point.  But speaking of VA demographic trends, is Arlington part of Fairfax County yet?

[Non Swing Voter]

welp if Bernie is the nominee plausible.

[Non Swing Voter]

welp if Bernie is the nominee plausible.

Bernie is a JUGGERNAUT and he would still win VA

For what it's worth I do feel bad for Bernie bros because this is a bad night.  But the reality is he's just making empty promises.  We need to beat Trump.  Bernie can't do it.

[Non Swing Voter]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

For a Virginia resident, you don't know much about your state. Bernie, in fact, is the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination at this point in time. Also, no Democrat will lose Virginia.

your post aged really well...

[Non Swing Voter]

The Democratic turnout in Virginia was huge. Trump ain't winning that.

Yes.  Agreed.  And Biden is a good fit for the state.  Biden wins by 10 points, keeps the 3 new freshmen congresswomen safe as well. 

[Non Swing Voter]

The Democratic turnout in Virginia was huge. Trump ain't winning that.

Yes.  Agreed.  And Biden is a good fit for the state.  Biden wins by 10 points, keeps the 3 new freshmen congresswomen safe as well.  

Eh I still main at end of the day that Sanders will win Nova by enough that he would win Virginia as a whole. But barely.

But with Biden as the probable nominee my rating of VA from from tilt D to Likely D very quickly. And I actually voted for Bernie this morning to say FU to extreme income inequality

Bernie still favored simply because of the demographics of the state but yeah it would likely be the barest of margins and he'd need to actually campaign there a bit.  But given that it's likely Biden the state is completely off the table.  The Trump team is probably looking at these turnout numbers and realizing there's no hope in contesting the state.

[Non Swing Voter]

No.  Virginia would not have been Safe D if Bernie was the nominee.  NoVa numbers in Arlington and especially Fairfax would have tanked.  Bernie is toxic in UMC suburbs as the primary very clearly showed. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Yeah, obviously there are tons of Obama/McAuliffe/Warner/Clinton/Northam/Kaine voters who have regularly voted Democratic who would’ve rushed to Trump’s arms had Sanders been the nominee, since he’s such a “bad fit” that a more than decade-long trend would not only stop but reverse itself to an enormous extent . Remind me how Obama lost MI and PA in 2008, did worse than Kerry/Gore in OH/FL, and how Clinton lost CO but won OH in 2016.

Didn't you also think Bernie was going to do a lot better than he did in the primary? 

[Non Swing Voter]

No.  Virginia would not have been Safe D if Bernie was the nominee.  NoVa numbers in Arlington and especially Fairfax would have tanked.  Bernie is toxic in UMC suburbs as the primary very clearly showed. 

Ironically Nova Numbers for Sanders would have still been far above the national median for Sanders lol.

Probably because Virginia doesn't have early voting (yet).  There were only 3 real choices: Biden, Bernie, Warren.  So everyone got some share of the other votes.  Interestingly (and anecdotally) though, I know a lot of female Warren voters in Fairfax who are friends.  They all told me Biden was their second choice even though she was supposedly sharing a lane with Bernie.  Bernie just comes off as a socialist fanatic to a lot of suburban voters even though Warren had some similar policies.  Bernie's temperament is almost as bad as Trump's.  Biden offers a much better contrast in the general election which will play very well in states like Virginia.

[Non Swing Voter]

No.  Virginia would not have been Safe D if Bernie was the nominee.  NoVa numbers in Arlington and especially Fairfax would have tanked.  Bernie is toxic in UMC suburbs as the primary very clearly showed. 

Disagree. There are tons of young (<40) professionals in Arlington/Fairfax/Falls Church who would have found Sanders appealing. Older NoVA liberals despise Trump more than they may dislike Sanders and >95% of them would have voted for Sanders.

Evergreen reminder that Lee Carter is from Manassas, and has had several bills passed which are pretty much right out of the Sanders/DSA agenda:

https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1248787829968297985

https://twitter.com/ActivateVA/status/1249141420172206081

Well that's entirely anecdotal so I'll respond anecdotally by saying that I am an under 40 fiscally conservative socially liberal Fairfax voter (like you mention above) who voted for Biden in the primary but would absolutely NOT have voted for Sanders under any circumstances in the general election.  There are others like me here.  It's one thing to hate Trump but people who worked hard and already pay a lot in taxes aren't a fan of Bernie's insane socialist rhetoric, even if we know that they have zero chance of ever becoming law.  Virginia is a pragmatic not ultra-liberal state.

[Non Swing Voter]

Disagree. There are tons of young (<40) professionals in Arlington/Fairfax/Falls Church who would have found Sanders appealing. Older NoVA liberals despise Trump more than they may dislike Sanders and >95% of them would have voted for Sanders.

Evergreen reminder that Lee Carter is from Manassas, and has had several bills passed which are pretty much right out of the Sanders/DSA agenda:

I think the primary results make this specific case hard to make. Sanders got 3rd in Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church indicating young professionals were severely outvoted and/or didn't have much love for Sanders to begin with. As for older, richer communities, he was a non-entity. Some precincts that stand out to me personally:

Great Falls

Biden 62%
Bloomberg 18%
Sanders 13%

Langley

Biden 60%
Bloomberg 21%
Sanders 10%

Belmont Ridge

Biden 63%
Bloomberg 17%
Sanders 14%

I think most Democratic primary voters would've ended up coming to terms with a Sanders nomination, but there's a deep unresolved skepticism from older, financially stable, risk-averse Democrats, particularly in Virginia. The Democratic exit poll last month showed two alarming numbers:

Opinion of Bernie Sanders:
46% favorable
48% unfavorable

Vote Democratic in Nov. regardless of nominee? Among people who answered No (20%):
40% Biden
29% Sanders
15% Bloomberg

In a normal election year with the health of the economy the way it was, it wasn't unrealistic to think some bloodletting might've happened in NoVA. Sanders would've been thoroughly crushed in rural parts of the state (in a way he wouldn't have been in 2016) and would've had serious black turnout issues. I think he ultimately would've held on but the recipe was there for a more competitive state than in 2016.

As for Carter, that he's a hard leftist is an anomaly, and a Democrat of any ideological background could hold his seat. His political future is pretty limited right now in my view.

But this discussion is outdated now because Biden will win Virginia by a lot and Sanders would've had no problem with the impending recession.

It's fairly safe to say that all those Bloomberg voters in Great Falls and McLean would have broken heavily for Biden against Bernie as well. 

[Non Swing Voter]

I think he bit himself in the foot by saying this and not even campaigning there. At least with Minnesota, I can see the validity on if somebody feels like he has a chance to flip it as he has actually campaigned there and placed resources, which is much more than he did for Virginia, which means if people remember this pledge and he fails to keep it, they would think he was just lying

Yeah but I mean it's Trump.  He lies all the time and forgets what he said last week.  He could also just be trying to make a threat to go on offensive.  The problem with that strategy is there are very few Hillary states that are viable and many of them offer few electoral votes (Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine).  The only three Hillary states that are theoretically viable and have decent EC votes are CO, VA, MN... but none of these seem likely given the 2018 results. 

Also, Trump quit in VA surprisingly early in 2016 so I think he knows he's not viable here.

[Non Swing Voter]

I can be a moderate hero here and say:

1) The individuals who believe that Trump was going to sweep all of Nova in landslides are just plain ignorant.

and

2) It is unlikely that Sanders would have been able to matched Clinton's numbers in Nova which would have lead to a very competitive state and Trump possibly winning Virginia.

I have seen literally hundreds of people on Atlas or Discord that Trump would win Fairfax County over Sanders. Which is just nonsense.

who are these "hundreds of people" saying Trump would win Fairfax County against Sanders?  I think Sanders is as awful a fit as you can get for Fairfax as a democrat but he'd still definitely win the county.  It's just, when your margin drops off 10 or 15 points from Hillary's in the largest county in the state that's a big deal.  But I'm not aware of anyone who actually thinks Trump would win the county against Sanders.  But yes, the state would have been competitive if Sanders were the nominee.  The people here saying otherwise weren't aware that Arlington isn't in Fairfax County.

[Non Swing Voter]

The Northern VA suburbs which will be won by Biden by 250K is key to Biden holding serve in the state. Trump had a crack at VA before last yrs shutdown,  but the GOP cratered in VA after that

Biden will win NOVA by way more than 250K.  Hillary had a 200K margin out of Fairfax County alone.  She had more than 100K out of Arlington and Alexandria. 

I predict Biden nets close to 250K out of Fairfax alone.  100-150K out of Arlington and Alexandria.  The main improvements will be in Loudoun and Prince William due to population growth and increased turnout which will all go to Biden.  I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins NOVA by about 500K.  I also see him winning Richmond and its suburbs big and the Virginia Beach region slightly.  I think Virginia will be a blowout and it wouldn't surprise me if he won the state by double digits.

[Non Swing Voter]

First post primary poll of Virginia:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/492733-poll-biden-leads-trump-by-10-points-in-virginia

"Biden holds the support of 51 percent of likely Virginia voters, while Trump sat at 41 percent."

Interestingly: "The former vice president also leads the president among all income brackets in the poll, but especially among middle class voters earning between $51,000 and $100,000, where he enjoys a 16-point lead."

analysis: Northern Virginia is turning even bluer.