Trump: I WILL WIN VIRGINIA IN 2020

[Intell]

He will against Bernie.

lol,sanders could lose the landslide in a landslide and he would stilll win Virginia.

[chickentitilater]

love how conservatives claim that lefties love big government and also claim a state where millions work for the government will vote against Bernie.

Lee Carter won in Virginia

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

love how conservatives claim that lefties love big government and also claim a state where millions work for the government will vote against Bernie.

Lee Carter won in Virginia

Welcome to the forums!

[mgop]

LOL

[ElectionsGuy]

Not much more delusional than the Dems that still think Iowa/Ohio are toss-ups. But really, this isn't important, he said he'd win New York back in 2016, so obviously he's just being his usual cocky self.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not much more delusional than the Dems that still think Iowa/Ohio are toss-ups. But really, this isn't important, he said he'd win New York back in 2016, so obviously he's just being his usual cocky self.

Ernst will lose and Scholten can win, Biden can win OH and IA

[Non Swing Voter]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

For a Virginia resident, you don't know much about your state. Bernie, in fact, is the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination at this point in time. Also, no Democrat will lose Virginia.

I love when completely uninformed people make incorrect blanket statements without any source.

Virginia: Trump vs. Sanders   Mason-Dixon   Sanders 45, Trump 51   Trump +6

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/#

[Non Swing Voter]

He will against Bernie.

lol,sanders could lose the landslide in a landslide and he would stilll win Virginia.

Had to hit the unignore for a sec to LOL heartily at this.

[ON Progressive]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

For a Virginia resident, you don't know much about your state. Bernie, in fact, is the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination at this point in time. Also, no Democrat will lose Virginia.

I love when completely uninformed people make incorrect blanket statements without any source.

Virginia: Trump vs. Sanders   Mason-Dixon   Sanders 45, Trump 51   Trump +6

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/#

A single outlier poll means nothing.

All we need to know to know that Sanders won't lose Virginia is to look at just about every single election that has happened in the state this past decade.

[DrScholl]

Trump only would win Virginia with a significant third party vote and reduced turnout.

[Non Swing Voter]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

For a Virginia resident, you don't know much about your state. Bernie, in fact, is the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination at this point in time. Also, no Democrat will lose Virginia.

I love when completely uninformed people make incorrect blanket statements without any source.

Virginia: Trump vs. Sanders   Mason-Dixon   Sanders 45, Trump 51   Trump +6

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/#

A single outlier poll means nothing.

All we need to know to know that Sanders won't lose Virginia is to look at just about every single election that has happened in the state this past decade.

First off, where do you get that this is an "outlier" poll.  The fact that one of the few polls of the state (and not a hack poll like Rasmussen) shows Sanders losing outside the margin of error means it is NOT a state that is in the bag for any democrat.

And further to that point, every single election that democrats have been winning statewide did not involve a socialist on the ticket.  Ralph Northam was an extremely moderate candidate and thus didn't need to rely on overwhelming margins in NOVA to win.  Sanders will need big margins in NOVA to win and he won't get the kind of margins that Biden would.  He is probably still favored to win but it's far from certain.  Socialism does not play well in NOVA.  A large chunk of voters in NOVA (including democrats) are UMC and pro-capitalist.  NOVA is not all government workers.  Fairfax County has a large tech sector and lots of private industries.  Making an unwise choice in the democratic primary by nominating a weak candidate like Warren/Sanders means that Democrats will have to invest in the state, whereas Biden can write it off.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, to the original point of this thread, it actually makes sense why Trump would want to at least try to win Virginia as there aren't a lot of "winnable" Hillary states with that many electoral votes.  The only other ones are are Colorado and Minnesota.

But if Trump loses PA, MI, and AZ (which is probably the Dems easiest path to victory), neither Minnesota or Colorado would be enough to offset that to secure victory.  He would need at least 11 electoral votes.  Virginia is 13 while Minnesota is 10 and Colorado is 9.  Even Nevada and New Hampshire combined aren't enough.

[wbrocks67]

Did people miss the election results from VA in 2017, 2018, and 2019...?

[Non Swing Voter]

Did people miss the election results from VA in 2017, 2018, and 2019...?

A socialist wasn't at the top of the ticket in any of those elections.  Nor were the congressional candidates that won any of the key races...

[redeagleofficial]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

For a Virginia resident, you don't know much about your state. Bernie, in fact, is the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination at this point in time. Also, no Democrat will lose Virginia.

"No Republican will win Michigan"
-Atlas Nov 7 2016

[Non Swing Voter]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

For a Virginia resident, you don't know much about your state. Bernie, in fact, is the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination at this point in time. Also, no Democrat will lose Virginia.

"No Republican will win Michigan"
-Atlas Nov 7 2016

Don't forget Pennsylvania.  The day of the 2016 election I said I was concerned about reports of low turnout in Philly and how it could cost Hillary Pennsylvania and I practically got laughed off the board by the wise Bernie bros.

[SN2903]

Trump could win VA if Bernie or Pete is the nominee

[Non Swing Voter]

Trump could win VA if Bernie or Pete is the nominee

I don't know why everyone here hates Pete but Pete is a good fit for Virginia.  Trump could win if it's Warren or Sanders but I don't think he has a good chance against Buttigieg. 

I'd say odds of winning against Trump by candidate:

Biden: 90% minimum (probably uncontested by Trump)
Klobuchar: 85%
Pete: 85%
Yang: 80%
Bloomberg: 75%
Steyer: 65%
Sanders: 55%
Warren: 50%

[MT Treasurer]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

For a Virginia resident, you don't know much about your state. Bernie, in fact, is the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination at this point in time. Also, no Democrat will lose Virginia.

"No Republican will win Michigan"
-Atlas Nov 7 2016

And as we all know, VA and MI are two very comparable states with similar electorates and identical political and long-term demographic trends.

[Non Swing Voter]

He will against Bernie.

Yes, but Bernie probably won't be the nominee.

For a Virginia resident, you don't know much about your state. Bernie, in fact, is the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination at this point in time. Also, no Democrat will lose Virginia.

"No Republican will win Michigan"
-Atlas Nov 7 2016

And as we all know, VA and MI are two very comparable states with similar electorates and identical political and long-term demographic trends.

Yeah, that was obviously not his point.  But speaking of VA demographic trends, is Arlington part of Fairfax County yet?

[AN63093]

Why is it with Republicans and wanting to win Virginia so badly?

It’s more of a symbolic thing based on the (incredibly dumb) assumption that the state only flipped from R-leaning to Solid D because of "moderate" neoliberal hawkish suburban white Bush/Clinton #NeverTrump type voters in NOVA, Virginia Beach, Richmond suburbs, etc. who are still Republicans at heart.

Well, that, and some people unironically think Clinton would have lost VA without Kaine. It’s certainly interesting that you don’t see them obsessing over winning Colorado, though. I guess VA really is to Republicans what WV is to some Democrats.

You know, with WV I kinda get it.  Yeah, it's silly, and granted- a lot of the sentiment has to do with Dems pretending like the party still has some tie to old school labor in more traditional industries (which hasn't been true in a long time).  But at least with WV, you have an electorate that hasn't changed.  The last time WV had any serious growth was 40 years ago and the demographics voting now are pretty much the same as in the 90s.  You could literally find people that voted for Clinton in '96 and are voting R now, so I guess in theory, the right Dem could win it.

Whereas in VA, people assume the reverse is true, even though the demographics now are completely different as those in the past and the state's shift has little to do with the parties themselves.  For some reason, Republicans in particular have this image in their mind of what the state looks like, and then there is what the state actually is, and those two things haven't been the same for at least 15 years now.

VA is not the future of the party.  Places like ME, MI, PA, and MN are.  Yes, I understand this will be to the chagrin of a faction of the GOP, but they need to accept that, get over it and move on.

[morgankingsley]

Trump only would win Virginia with a significant third party vote and reduced turnout.

This. Its not impossible to win it. He just won't in a two way race. The thing is that no real third party has stepped up to seriously make challenge of it

[Non Swing Voter]

welp if Bernie is the nominee plausible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

welp if Bernie is the nominee plausible.

Bernie is a JUGGERNAUT and he would still win VA

[Non Swing Voter]

welp if Bernie is the nominee plausible.

Bernie is a JUGGERNAUT and he would still win VA

For what it's worth I do feel bad for Bernie bros because this is a bad night.  But the reality is he's just making empty promises.  We need to beat Trump.  Bernie can't do it.