I still think that VA is leaning towards Kilgore, if only for reasons of general partisan advantage, what does however seem to be the case is that the momentum is on Kaine’s side and as I said he would do he’s got his second wind, just at the time when Warner has begun to campaign hard across the state… its still a tossup but the momentum is working to Kaine’s advantage right now, doesn’t mean he’ll win, but as I’ve been saying for weeks he’s narrowing the gap.
Actually, Kaine is trying to cover up his past and pretend that he's 'Warner Jr.'
However, Kaine has two major weaknesses:
First, his opposition to the right to keep and bear arms,
Second, his support for illegal immigration.
Both matters are likely to loom large on election day.
I'd agree, Kaine's campaign is effectively selling its self as ‘Warner’s second term’ and to be fair its not a stupid strategy, Warner is a very popular incumbent who critically appeals to rural and conservative voters, not necessarily the same thing and critically does this without adopting the kind of strategy adopted by Phil Bredensen in TN.
Kaine is not an especially strong candidate, but he’s not bad, he was a decent Mayor of Richmond and a competent Lt.Gov though he was largely elected thanks to Warner’s own coat tails, his positions on the second amendment and the death penalty are weaknesses, in political terms, but Kilgore’s campaign has so far failed to exploit them. In comparison to Kilgore however Kaine is far more polished and likeable, a far more articulate candidate yet Kilgore does have the inbuilt advantages of a republican candidate running in southern state… in the end though I think both candidates’ pluses and minus cancel each other out, though Kilgore or rather the GOP’s institutional advantage in VA should not be under estimated.
The final month of the campaign, is seeing the Kaine campaign bring Warner out in a big way and tying Kaine to the outgoing incumbent “tighter than a nat to a…” well you get the picture, at the same time Kilgore is clearly struggling to reestablish the small but clear lead he had previously held.
The race has tightened as polling day has crept closer, and, as I had argued, folks began to actually seriously ‘tune in’ and consider the race which seems to be being reflected in the polls, either candidate could still blow it however it has to be good news for Democrats’ that Kaine’s campaign, with both his message and theme, seems to have hit its stride while Kilgore does seem to have hit a head wind and to be struggling.
Either candidate can still blow the race, and neither has any meaningful advantage, though Kaine would appear to have made some progress, what is more he has just launched an ad with a personal endorsement from Mark Warner, if he has any hopes of winning, a great deal will rest on the impact that Warner is able to, and chooses to have on the campaign over the next few weeks.
