Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1497533422146887684

Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki:

Today I spoke again with the Prime Minister of Hungary, V. Orbán. And he once again assured me of his support for far-reaching sanctions against Russia. Including about blocking the SWIFT system.

with Cyprus also supporting, Germany looking increasingly isolated now.

One can argue Germany is playing the role of Joe Manchin on the BBB bill relative to other Dem senators that are skeptical of the BBB bill.  All of them can "support" BBB knowing that Joe Manchin will block the bill.  We will see where this goes.

Well, one could argue that, but it would be a dumbass argument. BBB would have definitely passed if Manchin/Sinema had gotten on board.

[BlueSwan]

I'm deeply sceptical of all reporting from the early stages of a war.

[BlueSwan]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

Some of your posts have been over the top, but I have to agree with this one. We cannot have any sort of world order if Russia is permitted to continue down this path. Sanctions is no longer enough.

[BlueSwan]

Historic speech by Olaf Scholz. Germany completely changes its defense policy. It sounded like he would invest 100 billion EURO right here and now in military equipment and from now on spend at least 2% of GDP yearly on defense. This will furthermore have a ripple effect in that other NATO countries - like my own - have been hiding behind Germany in not spending the 2%. That will almost certainly change now.

This could actually be a real turning point. It could also signal a new world order where democratic Europe rises from the pathetic dependence on the United States.

[BlueSwan]

Really great strategic move by Putin now that he has gotten NATO to pile up defense capabilities by massive amounts.

Yup. Putin has lost his mind. This will be his death sentence.

[BlueSwan]

I am extremely sceptical of "peace" talks.

Putin has basically proved beyond any reasonable doubt, that this was NEVER about Ukraine not becoming a NATO member or about securing the Russian-majority parts of eastern Ukraine. This was about reestablishing Russia as a global superpower like during the Sovjet days.

[BlueSwan]

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia.

I’ve heard similar “reflections” among the American left, and tbh it is stunning to me. It really reveals how naive they have been.

Well, we need more reflections like that. But yes, it is indeed stunning. One thing is that the far right nationalists have a hard on for Putin, but I expect more from the left.

[BlueSwan]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/germany-military-budget-russia-ukraine.html

Here's the article about German military budget increase. I remain skeptical of the 2% target by these liars piggybacking off us.I think 1.75% is actually what should be spent ideally but a target is a target and these cowards have hid behind the US for 15 years

OK, easy now. The US military budget would not be one cent smaller if every NATO member had spent 2% of GDP. Infact, the extremely large US military budget really has no relation to NATO at all.

[BlueSwan]

I'm sorry but Kadyrov and Putin need to die ASAP. High time for the CIA to show what it can do. I'm pretty sure that using nuclear weapons is not beyond those monsters.

[BlueSwan]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/02/27/romney-russia-putin-geopolitical-foe-obama-sot-reax-bash-sotu-vpx.cnn

Wow Romney bashes President Bush here to just not Obama and Trump

Honestly I’m almost considering shilling for Romney at this point. It’s clear the GOP is the majority party, better to reform it with someone who is willing to be flexible on policies when presented with new information as opposed to a hard liner.

Lol, how is the GOP the majority party. They’ve won the NPV in ONE presidential election since 1992.

[BlueSwan]

Nice job, Putin.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1498035056174149640

Obviously this must mean that even the Russian oriented parts of Ukraine are backing Zelensky.

[BlueSwan]

I just read that Belarusian military is expected to join the fight (on Russia's side) if "peace talks" go badly today. Now I consider that a threat.

Terrible.

To me it is high time for NATO to react properly and kick the russians out of Ukraine.

[BlueSwan]

Less gooooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/UA_Emb_FI/status/1498332538972033031

He's overplaying his hand here. Obviously the EU cannot admit a member that is in the middle of a war. Also, even if there was no contested territories within Ukraine and no war, Ukraine still needs to solve a bunch of problems, such as massive corruption, before it could even be debated whether it should be a part of the EU. Finally, the EU has all but regretted admitting member states like Hungary and Poland - there isn't much appetite for admitting yet another country that really isn't a fully functioning democracy.

[BlueSwan]

Less gooooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/UA_Emb_FI/status/1498332538972033031

He's overplaying his hand here. Obviously the EU cannot admit a member that is in the middle of a war. Also, even if there was no contested territories within Ukraine and no war, Ukraine still needs to solve a bunch of problems, such as massive corruption, before it could even be debated whether it should be a part of the EU. Finally, the EU has all but regretted admitting member states like Hungary and Poland - there isn't much appetite for admitting yet another country that really isn't a fully functioning democracy.

Ukraine has become a symbol of democracy and of the people who are willing to die defending what they believe in.

Yes, the nation is poor and has corruption, but what the EU is looking for here is the symbolism.

Nah, I'm telling you it is not going to happen.

[BlueSwan]

Hungary will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory - FM

PRISTINA, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Hungary will not send troops or weapons to Ukraine and will not allow lethal weapons to transit its territory in order to keep the country safe, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Monday during a visit to Kosovo.

https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-will-not-allow-lethal-weapons-ukraine-transit-its-territory-fm-2022-02-28/

First crack in the European coalition. Ukraine and Putin will now be an important issue in the upcoming elections in Hungary.

It is high time that we kick those bastards out of the EU.

[BlueSwan]

I figured that I would risk losing a few IQ points, so I have been visiting the main Qanon forum again over the last few days. Of course they are 100% behind Putin like the fascists that they are. Infact, criticizing Putin gets you banned. And of course there are a bunch of loony theories going around. One popular one is that there is infact no war. Another is that Zelenskyy, Putin and Trump are working together behind the scenes to take down the cabal.

There was ONE bright spot though and this was that some of them were complaining about how their MAGA friends were "falling for the mainstream media lies about the war". So I guess this means that possibly some Trumpist are having a bit of a wakeup call, even though I am not very optimistic about that.

[BlueSwan]

When Bolsonaro and Maduro are on the same side, then you know it's the wrong side.

Wait, what have they said?

[BlueSwan]

We, the Presidents of the EU member states: the Republic of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, the Republic of Estonia, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania, the Republic of Poland, the Slovak Republic, and the Republic of Slovenia strongly believe that Ukraine deserves receiving an immediate EU accession perspective.

Therefore, we call on the EU Member States to consolidate highest political support to Ukraine and enable the EU institutions to conduct steps to immediately grant Ukraine a EU candidate country status and open the process of negotiations.

In this critical moment, we reiterate our full solidarity with Ukraine and its People.

Link: https://www.hrad.cz/en/for-media/press-releases/open-letter-by-presidents-in-support-of-ukraines-swift-candidacy-to-the-european-union-16316

Interesting, even if it is extremely unlikely to happen.

I don't really think that is a very smart way to approach this crisis.

It is an extreme provocation of Russia, all for something that is very unlikely at present for reasons given earlier in the thread. NATO just kicking Russia out of Ukraine and showing Putin who is boss would be MUCH preferable to this, even with the inherent risks of doing so.

[BlueSwan]

If you read carefully through this thread, you can determine why NATO hasn’t directly intervened.

Despite what some “Russia stronk Russian nukes WWIII” posters think, it’s not because NATO is afraid of Russia.

The goal is regime change in Russia, brought about by Putin’s own actions in Ukraine.

As long as NATO doesn’t directly intervene in Ukraine, Putin can’t use it as a rallying cry tO pRoTeCt MoThEr RuSsIa. Because sadly there absolutely are many Russians who would see it that way.

So NATO/EU/the West in general will do everything they can up to the line of direct intervention to aid Ukraine.

I understand this policy; I don’t like how hard it is on the Ukrainians, but at least I grasp the logic.

Yeah, I don't buy this at all. Banking on the Russians overthrowing Putin by themselves is a stretch at best. It could happen, but I absolutely don't see NATO counting on this.

NATO is refraining from defending Ukraine because they are scared of nuclear war and because the Americans aren't really on board with entering into another war in general. I guarantee you that NATO would be totally on board if Joe Biden tomorrow said "let's kick out those damn russians". The rest of NATO is still too weak and too fragmented.

[BlueSwan]

Extensive German polling numbers on Ukraine conflict and support for sanctions, new defense arrangements etc.:


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=379760.msg8507122#msg8507122

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=379760.msg8507144#msg8507144

Very good numbers.

[BlueSwan]

If Russia does manage to turn itself into a functional (somewhat liberal) democracy, the only sane thing to do is Marshall Plan 2.0.

That’s a very big if. But yes, I 100% agree that this would be the thing to do. Both from a security perspective and a financial perspective. A truly democratic Russia would be a huge benefit to the west and to world peace in general.

[BlueSwan]

Yes, well, one way out would have been a referendum in the Russian speaking areas as to what country they wanted to be a part of, as part of a package where Russia would accept the result as binding, and the balance joined NATO or whatever. But that ship sailed long ago. And now the reality is that some areas of Russia would vote in far greater numbers  to exit and join Ukraine, than the reverse in Ukraine. How would Crimea vote now in a free and fair election?

Referendums in each major Ukrainian province overseen by UN officials is probably something that we should have pushed for long ago. It would have been a win-win situation. Russia would have probably gained some land. The rest of Ukraine would have gotten rid of the most Russian-leaning part of the population and could more firmly move in a western direction.

[BlueSwan]

The media is getting tired of the Ukraine War in Australia. And it's getting pretty generic:

Start.

The Russians bombed a:

(a) Theatre
(b) School
(c) Church

Add voice of Ukrainian person talking. Add a Western journalist talking.

End.

Today's report in Australia was of a bombing event in Kiev with no victims.

The media is waiting for a specific event to occur. If it doesn't occur, they report it as not occurring.

We are not getting any proper news. We are just getting someone's opinion written into a pre-existing template. Then put on Twitter and it is then pasted with more opinions.

Does anyone have any news websites they prefer for the actual details of events rather than generic propaganda and opinion?

The best I found was DW.

There's a very real possibility that this will be a looong drawn out process with something approaching a military stalemate where only Europe will maintain interest in what is going on.

[BlueSwan]

My takeaway from all of this is the "the West" needs to avoid being too economically interdependent with nations of power that might become adversarial to the breaking point.  "The West" needs to be able to quickly press the go into backup mode button, and replace whatever goods and services are cut off with adequate substitutes. In other words, if need be "the West" needs to be able effectuate a quick and not unduly painful divorce. And "the West" will need to pay a rather expensive insurance premium to get there. Both military and economic preparedness needs to be in play. To cut to the chase, the above policy needs to be in place for both China and Russia. They can and will and probably are returning the favor.

I disagree. Interdependency is still good, we just can't be AS dependent as we currently are on something as crucial as energy supply from potentially hostile authoritarian regimes. If this war blows over and there is regime change in Russia, we should definitely reengage with Russia trade-wise, but still work towards energy independence.

[BlueSwan]

Maybe it was noted above, but Biden saying Putin cannot remain in power, and the  the White House saying that does not mean regime change because Biden meant that Putin cannot have power over Russia's neighbors, is pretty pathetic. If Biden has that much trouble with words that important, he should read his speech word for word. If he meant what he said, then obviously the prep before hand was poor.

Addendum: I see that it was. I still think its pretty embarrassing.

I really have no idea why the White House felt the need to retract anything. What Uncle Joe said was correct.