Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Zaybay]

Yeah, I don't get the point of this new map. It makes all the marginal D seats a bit closer, while not improving COI representation in any meaningful way. Why the changes?

The reason that changes are made to begin with; an incumbent wanted some neighborhood or a piece of territory for their own (arbitrary) reasons.

It's important to remember that, while we're focused on partisanship and COIs, the folks drawing this map have to take into account their very loud allies and congressmembers. If they have demands, they have to be addressed. We can see this with the IL drafts, where Newman was making such outrageous and unhelpful demands that she had to be threatened in the initial draft (which ironically, her demand of having a white suburban seat that voted D enough were largely met in the end), or how Garcia's demand of a second Hispanic seat was actually met in the current draft.

Yeah, but most of those are just tinkering around the margins. It doesn't explain why they changed IL-17, which doesn't share any Democratic territory with any other district that needs it. All they did was pull IL-16 a bit to the left for some reason.

Well, its not just incumbents who can making demands, and said demands aren't always "make district more blue". It could be a well-connected challenger making the demands so that a crucial base is kept in the seat, a state legislator looking out for their future political career by including parts of their district in the CD, or even some random political donor who'd rather be put in the D seat than the R seat. Could be a multitude of folks making these arbitrary decisions. But, of course, these decisions aren't made for no reason.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1453875546643968021?s=20

Map 4? I need to see a "change" comparison to map 3, cause these look similar. Must have been minute adjustments demanded.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1453876391666241536

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1453876391666241536

Haha, is it not abundantly obvious now that the machine is going after Newman? They must have heard our feedback that she could be favored over Casten in the previous draft, so they put her with a Hispanic incumbent in a district that contains Hispanic parts of Chicago.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1453876391666241536

Haha, is it not abundantly obvious now that the machine is going after Newman? They must have heard our feedback that she could be favored over Casten in the previous draft, so they put her with a Hispanic incumbent in a district that contains Hispanic parts of Chicago.

It is probably just more apathy . Last in ,First out.

[Minnesota Mike]

 Newman would more than likely run in IL-06 anyway.

[Oryxslayer]

Newman would more than likely run in IL-06 anyway.

INB4 Newman moves and keeps repp'ing IL-03.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1453876391666241536

Haha, is it not abundantly obvious now that the machine is going after Newman? They must have heard our feedback that she could be favored over Casten in the previous draft, so they put her with a Hispanic incumbent in a district that contains Hispanic parts of Chicago.

According to the leaks about the process, Casten was throwing huge fit (and I mean a literal screaming fit) about the map and the fact that he'd be in huge trouble against Newman, so they recalibrated the districts to be a much fairer fight between the two. Also Garcia was apparently cool with the double-bunk.

Though its important to note, the 6th is still plurality Newman's old seat (and base), and she lives on the literal border of the 4th and 6th, so its not like Newman is screwed or even the underdog.

[GALeftist]

Yeah if I were Newman I'd take my chances in the 6th. Don't think this is necessarily curtains for her, but it's still annoying that they're making her deal with this, she's a great rep.

[Mr. Illini]

Yep, Casten was understandably upset about the prior draft and pressured DuPage lawmakers to block it, hence the revision.

Also...

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453884325137629189?s=20

[lfromnj]

For the past month, hundreds of diverse community members from Chicago’s Southwest Side and suburbs have attended and overwhelmingly voiced their opinion at every single public input opportunity held by the Illinois General Assembly on the proposed congressional maps. Even after attending every single hearing in large numbers and delivering hundreds of testimonies, letters, calls and witness slips from voices in the district, the most recently proposed map is a clear attempt to appease one person and a small handful of affluent insiders at the expense of workers and working families on Chicago’s Southwest Side and suburbs. Illinois residents deserve fair representation and a fair map that includes public input — not one that turns a blind eye to it. This map undoubtedly does not live up to what Illinois residents deserve.

From Newman

LOL

[BoiseBoy]

Illinois senate passes draft 4 along a party line vote of 41-18. It now goes to the House for a vote there.

[Gracile]

Newman has no chance against Garcia, so it's in her best interest to run in the new IL-06 - which still has much of her old turf, and IMO still has numerous advantages over Casten.

[Gracile]

Yep, Casten was understandably upset about the prior draft and pressured DuPage lawmakers to block it, hence the revision.

Also...

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453884325137629189?s=20

IDK why but I find the small numb into Macomb/WIU in IL-17 funny. The IL Dems understandably trying to squeeze as much of the college town vote with laser-like precision into the two downstate districts as possible.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453955626485239810

[Pericles]

Now this is a brutally effective state party. A job well done, though I really wish it didn't have to be this way.

[OBD]

Not sure why they had to screw over a perfectly good representative, and a little miffed that they didn't go all the way in terms of making seats ironclad, but all in all, today is a good day. Illinois Democrats did their job, and America will be all the better for it.

[Stuart98]

IL dems sending a message that primarying homophobic congressmen means you're dead to them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I could care less about Newman's political future. If she sinks, she sinks.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I haven’t had a Democratic rep since Enyart and I’m stoked to be finally getting one (Anne Callis?)

Also, this is exactly the kind of maximalist redistributing every Dem trifecta should be doing until we have a national redistributing standard.

[MaxQue]

IL dems sending a message that primarying homophobic congressmen means you're dead to them.

Lipinski would have been screwed by that map too.
If you need 2 Hispanic seats in Chicago, you need to make one that's South Earmuff + hispanic parts of the Newman/Lipinski seat and it's very clear the Latino Caucus would NOT have voted for a map with only one Hispanic seat.

[compucomp]

Newman declares she will run for reelection in IL-6. I wonder how hard the IL machine will have its thumb on the scale for the Casten vs Newman primary battle, it could get ugly.

https://twitter.com/capitolfax/status/1454107770429448198

[Joseph Cao]

As expected, of course. Now I may have too much faith in the ILDems' PR competency given their demonstrable willingness to go all out in just about every other respect, but I think they won't be out-and-out opposing Newman the way people seem to think, or even trying to intervene more than they need to.

Newman has gotten a thumb in her eye twice during this whole process. The first apparently came down to her violating basic redistricting etiquette and having to have that message sent to her to get in line. And being drawn in with Garcia doesn't seem like a direct snub at her so much as the DuPage state reps being antsy about Casten's position. Both of those things read to me like a state party that by and large will enforce order when it needs to and no further, and unless Newman actually goes all out against Casten or damages him beyond repair or something like it they won't see a need for that.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Newman declares she will run for reelection in IL-6. I wonder how hard the IL machine will have its thumb on the scale for the Casten vs Newman primary battle, it could get ugly.

https://twitter.com/capitolfax/status/1454107770429448198

I find it kind of bizarre how they seems so strongly tied to Carsten even though he’s one term Newman’s seniors and both have been running for congress Ed’s just as long. Only because Newman took down Lipinski

[Zaybay]

Newman declares she will run for reelection in IL-6. I wonder how hard the IL machine will have its thumb on the scale for the Casten vs Newman primary battle, it could get ugly.

https://twitter.com/capitolfax/status/1454107770429448198

I find it kind of bizarre how they seems so strongly tied to Carsten even though he’s one term Newman’s seniors and both have been running for congress Ed’s just as long. Only because Newman took down Lipinski

I was not getting that impression at all. It's important to remember that the previous draft was one that Casten took extreme issue with, and he and his allies had to fight tooth and nail for...very little change overall. Both Newman and Casten seemed to have been treated pretty poorly by the rest of the IL Dems, largely due to a lack of allies and seniority. Newman and Casten also, according to rumors, did not make things easy for themselves during negotiations, with both reportedly being rude, standoffish, and uncooperative (Newman had to be threatened in the intial draft and Casten apparently screamed at suburban legislators to get the map changed).

As for the actual primary, its hard to say who'd win. Newman has way more of a structural advantage (the 6th is a plurality her seat, something around 45% compared to Casten's 20%), and she'd likely receive more support from women's groups and progressive groups. Casten meanwhile could have an advantage due to a potential geographic base in DuPage, which is rich in D primary voters.

As for a potential thumb, I doubt the IL Dems really interfere. This whole romanization of Lipinski that some users have brought up contradicts most evidence about what the actual ILDEMs have cared about, and with the only guy who liked Lipinski gone (Madigan), there's no real reason for them to go against Newman. Hell, if anything, Newman has had the thumb on her scale during redistricting; Casten was basically thrown into her seat, not the other way around. The most likely scenario is a machine largely standing out and letting the two kill each other.