NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Asta]

Just returned my mail ballot for Murphy.  

I'll take a bit of contrarian view and say Ciatarelli will make it close. Murphy will win by 4-6%.
Murphy's 52-38 approval rating looks decent but when you consider the other 10% that are undecided, my guess is that they'll swing for Ciatarelli.

Democrats seem to let their guard down after showing up in previous elections. Republicans' red wave always seems to dwarf Democrats' blue wave and unless I see otherwise, I'll always believe Republicans will have the edge in gubernatorial and congressional elections in neutral environment.

[Asta]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

The state has no swing voters? Christie won 1/3 of democratic voters, 60% of moderates and 70% of white voters back in 2013.

He won pretty much every meaningful category except black voters and under 50k income group. He was somewhat like NJ's Charlie Baker back in the day.

I'll give you that Ciatarelli will make it probably close, but his task is harder than in Christie's era, because NJ whites have gotten more left, whereas non-whites have become more right-leaning. And since whites are the ones that consistently turn out, Ciatarelli will be a serious underdog. Hispanic and Asian voters make up only around 13-15% of voters. They won't be the key component that tilts the scale. It will always begin an end with courting white voters.

[Asta]

Nothing too much, but here is the NJ voter breakdown I made during my break from work.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13x2UPlkxDa3ILnJIT9Vs1ozAf4AM9SYWiB3eTCvXQz8/edit?usp=sharing

From 2016 to 2020, we lost 78,394 of Independents, gained 463,829 of Democrats and gained 246,011 of Republicans. This was probably spurred by hatred against Trump, as Dems have nearly doubled registration compared to Republicans.

Nonetheless, NJ went from Clinton winning 55-41 in 2016 to only Biden winning 57-41 in 2020. In other words, Dems seem to have to keep registering more and more voters just to keep pace.

From January 2021 to October 2021, NJ lost about 41k of Independents, gained 40k of Democrats and 48k of Republicans, which would be consistent with the notion that Republicans are poised to perform better than in a neutral setting.

Obviously, this isn't going to really do much and Murphy will probably win. But with Republican momentum and a little bit of polling error can mean Ciatarelli can make it pretty close.

[Asta]

I don't see how gaining 7k more Rs in the same period means Rs will perform better in a neutral setting, after Dems just gained over 200k+ more from 2016-2020.

I don't see how Ciatarelli can make it pretty close either, unless you count Murphy +10 as "pretty close"

Dems gained 220k over Republicans yet Biden won NJ with roughly the same margin that Clinton did.

It's not so much that 7k is a lot. It's more of a symbol of Republicans' wave.
In a neutral setting, I'd imagine that Dems would register something like 1.2-1.5 more voters than Republicans in NJ. The fact that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in a blue state means Republicans have the enthusiasm.

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

[Asta]

I ran some numbers and Ciatarelli could very well win this.

Moreover, Bergen dumpoff has Ciatarelli leading by 55-45.

[Asta]

I ran some numbers and Ciatarelli could very well win this.

Moreover, Bergen dumpoff has Ciatarelli leading by 55-45.

If this happens, to say the party will need to do some soul-searching is a massive understatement. Will be even worse than the GOP losses in 2017.

To be fair, I was among the first (if not the first) to say it will be a closer race than expected. I said it will be 4-6 point win for Murphy, when every other NJ people were saying 8-12 point win, but even then, I never felt Ciatarelli was out of striking distance.

This is why Democrats really need to wake up. They are in trouble and always lose their guard after a win (2020).

[Asta]

Camden county 59-40 for Murphy
Bergen county (my home) 55-45 for Ciatarelli

These two results are just cringes if you're a Democrat. I don't know for sure what % of the outstanding votes are by mail or in person, but I highly doubt it is because it mostly counted in-person votes first.

There is a lot left in Essex and Passaic (Biden won by 56 and 17 points, respectively) but how much Murphy will underperform there is the question. If I assume that he will underperform there by similar margin, then Murphy will probably, even very likely lose.

[Asta]

Man I really hope Murphy wins because I don't want to have to spell the other guy's name every time I want to talk about the NJ governor.

I thought I was the only one. 

[Asta]

I'm very confused, is Murphy likely going to win or will he probably lose?

I wouldn't say probably yet, but Murphy is a slight underdog based on my spreadsheet estimates. If I was going to bet real money, I would put mine on Ciatarelli.

[Asta]

Just returned my mail ballot for Murphy.  

I'll take a bit of contrarian view and say Ciatarelli will make it close. Murphy will win by 4-6%.
Murphy's 52-38 approval rating looks decent but when you consider the other 10% that are undecided, my guess is that they'll swing for Ciatarelli.

Democrats seem to let their guard down after showing up in previous elections. Republicans' red wave always seems to dwarf Democrats' blue wave and unless I see otherwise, I'll always believe Republicans will have the edge in gubernatorial and congressional elections in neutral environment.

I was right about the bolded part at least.
I predicted 4-6%, but deep down, I always felt Ciattarelli is within striking distance with a bit of polling error.

People forget that this is a state Christie won by a landslide not long ago and Menendez won by a pedestrian 12% in a blue wave year.

Democrats by 13 to 14

New registration was nearly 2 to 1 Democrats from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2020.
Despite the fact that NJ had the most covid deaths per capita and promising registration numbers, the state trended right. Democrats have to take the state seriously. It's not a toss-up state for now but it will slowly turn that way if we take it for granted.

NJ registered more Republicans than Democrats after Biden was inaugurated. We could really turn from a solid blue state to a lean blue state in the near future if we let our guard down. NJ needs to keep registering far more Democrats if we want to keep up solid blue margin. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins NJ only by 10 points in 2024.  

[Asta]

I mean the ad was kinda spammy and annoying but Murphy saying NJ's not your state if you don't like high taxes is probably not the best statement.

He actually said that?

"If taxes are your issue, then we're probably not your state" was sort of taken out of context.

Murphy was explaining to a business group that NJ is a high tax, high value state (which to an extent is true) and that it's not going to be able to compete with state like Florida or Texas. Ciattarelli ads made it seem like Murphy cut off voters' concerns. It was quite disingenuous.

Also, I know the average voter doesn't care about facts, but here is what's interesting.
Property taxes rose 18.6% during Christie's (R) first term but only 6% during Corzine (D) and 4% during Murphy (D).

https://gothamist.com/news/every-four-years-new-jersey-its-property-taxes-stupid

https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2013/05/13-05-06-net-property-tax-increase-much-higher-under-christie-than-corzine/

I highly doubt that Ciattarelli will be able to cut property taxes. I wish NJ voters saw that lower property taxes is not an automatic thing just because they elect a Republican.

[Asta]

Just returned my mail ballot for Murphy.  

I'll take a bit of contrarian view and say Ciatarelli will make it close. Murphy will win by 4-6%.
Murphy's 52-38 approval rating looks decent but when you consider the other 10% that are undecided, my guess is that they'll swing for Ciatarelli.

Democrats seem to let their guard down after showing up in previous elections. Republicans' red wave always seems to dwarf Democrats' blue wave and unless I see otherwise, I'll always believe Republicans will have the edge in gubernatorial and congressional elections in neutral environment.

I was right about the bolded part at least.
I predicted 4-6%, but deep down, I always felt Ciattarelli is within striking distance with a bit of polling error.

People forget that this is a state Christie won by a landslide not long ago and Menendez won by a pedestrian 12% in a blue wave year.

Democrats by 13 to 14

New registration was nearly 2 to 1 Democrats from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2020.
Despite the fact that NJ had the most covid deaths per capita and promising registration numbers, the state trended right. Democrats have to take the state seriously. It's not a toss-up state for now but it will slowly turn that way if we take it for granted.

NJ registered more Republicans than Democrats after Biden was inaugurated. We could really turn from a solid blue state to a lean blue state in the near future if we let our guard down. NJ needs to keep registering far more Democrats if we want to keep up solid blue margin. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins NJ only by 10 points in 2024.  

No?

In terms of federal elections, New Jersey is way too diverse and way too well-educated to turn into a lean blue state, unless the GOP magically turned into the UK Conservatives.

The Republicans won the governorship and the popular vote in the General Assembly elections in 2009: New Jersey was and is still a blue state after that.

State elections are more about the general content or discontent at that moment in time. Admittedly I really underestimated the amount of political discontent with the status quo in NJ. But that doesn't make it a lean Dem state in presidential elections.

Diversity is not destiny as has been recited by many pundits and educational divide is not as stark in NJ. Bush turned 16 point loss in 2000 to 7 point loss in 2004 in NJ. It could always happen again with the right timing and environment. Never say never.

[Asta]

I'm surprised nobody is entertaining the possibility that we could be headed for a recount territory. Maybe I'm being paranoid but given that Ciattarelli showed up at "Stop the Steal" rally, it seems quite possible that he refuses to concede if he ends up losing, and fires up Republican base.

The momentum will continue to put democracy in peril and also motivate Trump or Trump-like candidates to carry his torch in 2024. Close results above and beyond embarrassment are horrible for Democrats.

[Asta]

I'm surprised nobody is entertaining the possibility that we could be headed for a recount territory. Maybe I'm being paranoid but given that Ciattarelli showed up at "Stop the Steal" rally, it seems quite possible that he refuses to concede if he ends up losing, and fires up Republican base.

The momentum will continue to put democracy in peril and also motivate Trump or Trump-like candidates to carry his torch in 2024. Close results above and beyond embarrassment are horrible for Democrats.

Yeah, this is a nightmare scenario. Maybe even worse than S***arelli winning outright.

But did he really appear at a "Stop the Steal" rally? During the primary I remember Hirsh Singh running against Ciatarelli stating that he said the election was "fair and legitimate."

Well, if he does go full Trumpist (as with Youngkin the 'moderate') I hope suburbanites regret it. I wish the worst on all of them.

He did show up there, but the worst thing is that his spokeswoman said he didn't know it was a "Stop the Steal" rally. (yeah sure lol)

He said the election was fair and legitimate probably to appeal to moderates. If he decided to distance himself from Trump the start, he knew he wouldn't get the turnout he needed so he probably tried to play both sides. Typical politician move.

[Asta]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pWm-E6k-nsFNQZU8oJpYxcN1iVuv2VpA1d0A_03rz1U/edit#gid=1371359546

We're not done counting yet, but it's safe to say the margin won't change too much.
I input my county-only results.

1) Not surprisingly, the highest turnout came from red counties. Their turnout mostly ranged from 59-66% of 2020 turnout. Some of the most important blue counties' turnouts were below 50% of 2020 turnout.

2) Cittarelli improved upon Trump's margin in almost every county by double digits except Hudson county, where margin roughly stayed the same. It is one of the counties Trump made significant inroad in 2020. You'd have thought Cittarelli could input more damage to it. Nope. Truly odd anomaly.

Many Republicans would have voted more if they knew it was going to be this close. Republicans that sat out this election thinking Murphy had it in the bag is going to be banging their feet.

For those interested, I have my bluest and reddest cities in 2020 in "Total" tab, which is the leftmost tab. The bluest city was East Orange City and reddest city was Lakewood. 

[Asta]

I wish I could say that I'm glad this is over, but I'm not, because it isn't over. New Jersey is going to have election conspiracy theorists descend upon it over these next few weeks. I'm certain of it.
I just hope that when those Biden-Ciatarelli/other Republican supporters see these people and their obnoxious shirts in the fields of the state that they immediately lament ever even slightly associating with them. But then again, I overestimated the voting public yet again, and I thought I had learned this time and kept my expectations grounded.

I thought I would be able to take solace in my state and my fellow residents of it. But I can't. This was a disaster in every way, and even with Murphy winning and transcending the Democratic incumbent Governor curse, since the Republicans basically won everything else. What's worse is that I feel responsible. I, just like the New Jersey Democratic Party, got complacent even while tempering my expectations for the typical GOP overperformance in off-years. I could have done more. I should have done more since I actually live in a state with what turned out to be a competitive election. Hell, I couldn't even get my sister vote. I said her vote would matter but she didn't believe me. I guess I at least got some vindication in that sense. And while we're talking incredibly minor, barely qualifying as silver linings: I am actually surprised now that Murphy won Somerset after all (if it holds). I guess that county really is gone for the GOP, especially with it being S***arelli's home. So Democrats still have some benefit from the polarization in this country in the form of locked-in support from educated suburbanites...certainly not enough that are reliable sure-bets though, also looking at Virginia. That's the most startling theme of last night's miserable events. The Democratic Party is going to become extinct because we cannot figure out what Americans want, what they care about, and what they remember. Much of that is on us, but I'm not absolving the average voter of their guilt either, we should expect some rationality, right? Well, I in particular, am not anymore.

The term "Murphy's Law' is poetically accurate to what transpired here in the Garden State and elsewhere. I now have a worse opinion of my home.

As a former New Yorker that lived in Long Island and Queens for combined 13 years, I'll defend NJ to the end of the earth, because it is still one of the top states for education, healthcare and crimes. Unlike New Yorkers who don't spare NJ from ridicule, I'm a different breed.

I couldn't get my younger brother and sister to vote in gubernatorial race either because they're not passionate about politics as I am. The only disappointing thing for me personally about this race is that it confirms everyone's suspicions that Democratic constituents are far more apathetic about politics and need to be pushed to vote.

While tech companies skew heavily liberal, the political consumers are overwhelmingly conservative, even in YouTube, Instagram and Facebook. It's how, and not how much you spend the money. Effective messaging and social media are far more money-efficient and powerful. I feel Democrats are squandering this opportunity. They need to seriously improve in this category, because Republicans have seized and taken advantage of technology far better, even if their electorate is older and seemingly less tech-savvy. Democrats need to message young voters there are more important things than Snapchat or watching cat videos, because we seem to have far greater share of politically apathetic and low-propensity voters.

A history is written by the winners or so they say. I'm not going to lose sleep over this race, because a win is a win

[Asta]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pWm-E6k-nsFNQZU8oJpYxcN1iVuv2VpA1d0A_03rz1U/edit#gid=1371359546

We're not done counting yet, but it's safe to say the margin won't change too much.
I input my county-only results.

1) Not surprisingly, the highest turnout came from red counties. Their turnout mostly ranged from 59-66% of 2020 turnout. Some of the most important blue counties' turnouts were below 50% of 2020 turnout.

2) Cittarelli improved upon Trump's margin in almost every county by double digits except Hudson county, where margin roughly stayed the same. It is one of the counties Trump made significant inroad in 2020. You'd have thought Cittarelli could input more damage to it. Nope. Truly odd anomaly.

Many Republicans would have voted more if they knew it was going to be this close. Republicans that sat out this election thinking Murphy had it in the bag is going to be banging their feet.

For those interested, I have my bluest and reddest cities in 2020 in "Total" tab, which is the leftmost tab. The bluest city was East Orange City and reddest city was Lakewood. 

Nice!

Interesting to see no swing in Hudson County between '20 and '21 (Not sure how many votes are still out there??? ). 

So were Working-Class Latino swings from '20 > '21 a non-issue and really this was more of the "Suburban Moms" vote?

Suburban mom and moderates backlash against Murphy's progressive agenda were definitely factors. There is no town by town result yet and we probably won't have it for a while, if at all. I'd like to see cities like Perth Amboy to see Latino swings.

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1456382601887895552?s=20

The margin is widening as expected. There's no grounds for a recount. Why is he doing this?

Republicans no longer concede. Conceding defeat is considered weak. Instead the proper course of action is throw a tantrum and yell fraud until the next election.

Unless they win, in which case the vote was obviously free and fair.

He did attend "Stop the Steal" rally after all, so I'm not a bit surprised. Even then his spokeswoman made an excuse that he didn't know it was a "Stop the Steal" rally. (which is obviously an utter joke)