Current 2020 map based on Morning Consult tracking

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Seems pretty unlikely to me as well, because you have a huge share of "white educated people" there, in esp. the Washington D.C. suburbs. I think Pennsylvania is more likely to be the tipping point state (assuming Michigan has shifted more to the Democrats once again, and Florida is more Republican than PA).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump probably already had some disapproval ratings in the mid west, but one reason why he did well, is because hillary clinton had even higher disapproval there (and i think pollings even underestimated the true extent of that, just like they overestimated clinton's performance in michigan primaries). Trump's issues also appealed more to Rust Belt voters, but i think they feel kind off disappointed or even cheated on. I think some had expected that Trump would've had a different attitude if elected as president, and others might not have seen Trump being elected as president, but issues like immigration, the wall, taking on wall street and the establishment all appeal to voters in the rust belt, while hillary clinton was really unpopular. The Hillary Clinton card disappears, and Trump turns out to be more of a generic republican anyway, with a bad communication style and not being really presidential (not being a president of all Americans, but only his voter base), and that explains why those rust belt states shift further away from Trump now.