2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Possible Commission on Presidential Debates Polling Average:


Methodology: Assumed 5 pollsters total, as was the case in 2016/20. Looked for any pollster they used in 2016 or 2020 that included at least one third party first. Yielded Fox, NPR, CNN. Selected Quinnipiac as the only remaining reputable pollster that included all third parties. For the final poll it's basically a toss-up between I&I or USA Today for highest quality pollster including all but Stein so I will show both possibilities. The most inclusive question was chosen for each pollster. A candidate's exclusion by a company does not count against them. The most recent national poll was used from each company.

FOX  Biden 41  Trump  35   Kennedy 15  West  3  Stein 3
NPR  Biden 44  Trump 37    Kennedy 16
CNN Biden 41   Trump 35    Kennedy 16  West 4
Quinnipiac Trump 38 Biden 35 Kennedy 17 West 3 Stein 3
USA Today/Suffolk Trump 37 Biden 37 Kennedy 13  West 4


AVERAGE Biden 39.6 Trump 36.4 Kennedy 15.4 West 3.5 Stein 3


FOX  Biden 41  Trump  35   Kennedy 15  West  3  Stein 3
NPR  Biden 44  Trump 37    Kennedy 16
CNN Biden 41   Trump 35    Kennedy 16  West 4
Quinnipiac Trump 38 Biden 35 Kennedy 17 West 3 Stein 3
I&I/TIPP   Biden 39  Trump 37 Kennedy 9 West 2

AVERAGE Biden 40 Trump 36.4 Kennedy 14.6 West 3 Stein 3

In Scenario 1 Kennedy qualifies for the Debates and in Scenario 2 he qualifies if they round up.

Long way to go until the final averages in September, but remember, Johnson '16 wasn't even being included in polls at this point.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I find the concept of there being "debates" this general election cycle to be very abstract at best. I can't imagine Biden (or Trump tbh) being willing to share the stage with someone he believes is an anti-democracy authoritarian. And I especially can't picture either of them wanting to share the stage with Kennedy even if he was polling above the 15% threshold.

Plus, a debate would just further highlight Biden's clear cognitive decline.

Most of the people on the commission are democrats or de facto democrats. Everything they do is probably run by the DNC. Whether Biden would participate in a debate between himself and Kennedy only is an open question but if Trump is on board Biden won't be a problem.

As for Trump, he inherently loves the stage and 'THE OFFICIAL PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES' is a lot harder to counterprogram against than a primary debate that is only on one channel usually. He won't have a 50-60 point lead to use as an excuse either. I know the RNC is really against the CPD, but what can they do at the end of the day if their nominee signs the invitation? Unless they're going to endorse West there's nothing they could do really. I think Trump will be eager to debate, even if it's just against Kennedy.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Will RFK even get on the ballot for the Libertarian primary in some states? NC for example already has its Lib ballot set and RFK is not included

Only a handful of states determine delegates for Libertarians through their primary. The Libertarian convention basically resembles the pre-1972 way the other parties do things, with the delegates mostly voting on their own. It makes predicting how their convention goes very difficult but also probably the most fun show in politics for those willing to watch it.

I think RFK Jr has some advantages (his famous name, the fact that he has a built in fanbase, shared dissatisfaction over COVID) but some very serious disadvantages (Libertarian activists are high info cranks and many might have grudges against his father and uncle so his name might cut both ways, his long commitment to environmental laws doesn't play well with free marketeering). If RFK Jr wants the Libertarian nomination his best bet is a lot of one on one cajoling and wooing of the thousand-odd Libertarian delegates and turning the legendary Kennedy charm on them in a one on one setting, which is a viable strategy (imagine deciding you're going to vote for Chase Oliver after a one on one chat with a Kennedy asking you to vote otherwise) but also deeply intricate and obnoxious. It'd be hard work and require finding some obscure info like the contact info of Libertarian delegates.

This is a high-risk high-reward move for RFK Jr. The Libertarian ballot line would singlehandedly give him access in over 40 states (New York State, with its insanely high new thresholds, may be the biggest hurdle but he might be on the ballot everywhere else...and he might even kick the Libs into high enough gear that they get NY too). Downsides, though? He might lose to a literal nobody (does anyone reading this know who Chase Oliver is?) because so many Libertarian activists are deeply ideological cranks who might actively refuse a more prominent national spotlight. He might also get saddled with some rando he's never heard of as a running mate who might disagree with him on his pet issues, which could be extremely awkward.

The Libertarian Primaries don't award delegates at all. They're just beauty contests. Every delegate is possible for Kennedy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Libertarian_Party_presidential_primaries

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Possible Commission on Presidential Debates Polling Average:

November 2023: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=425286.msg9298917#msg9298917

Methodology: Assumed 5 pollsters total, as was the case in 2016/20. Looked for any pollster they used in 2016 or 2020 that included at least one third party first. Yielded Fox, NPR, CNN. Selected Quinnipiac and The Messenger/HarrisX as the 2 most reputable pollsters who have conducted a five-way poll in 2024. The most inclusive question was chosen for each pollster. A candidate's exclusion by a company does not count against them. The most recent national poll was used from each company.


Fox Trump 41 Biden 37 Kennedy 14 Stein 3 West 2
NPR Biden 44 Trump 37 Kennedy 16
CNN Trump 41 Biden 35 Kennedy 16 West 4
Quinnipiac Biden 39 Trump 37 Kennedy 14 West 3 Stein 2
The Messenger/HarrisX Trump 45 Biden 36 Kennedy 14 Stein 3 West 2


Trump 40.2 Biden 38.2 Kennedy 14.8 West 2.75 Stein 2.67

Kennedy makes it if they round up. Also lol at West leading Stein.

If I get called by a pollster I'm definitely telling them RFK because I want a three way debate
However I will vote Biden on election day

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Possible Commission on Presidential Debates Polling Average:

November 2023: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=425286.msg9298917#msg9298917

February 2024:  https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=425286.msg9373971#msg9393971

Methodology: Assumed 5 pollsters total, as was the case in 2016/20. Looked for any pollster they used in 2016 or 2020 that included at least one third party first, using only polls conducted in 2024. Yielded only Fox. For the other four, I went with Harvard-Harris because of their large sample, then Quinnipiac, Forbes, and Suffolk as they seemed to be the next three most reputable pollsters with a recent five way survey. The most inclusive question was chosen for each pollster. The most recent national poll was used from each company.


Fox Trump 43 Biden 38 Kennedy 12 Stein 2 West 2
Harvard-Harris Trump 43 Biden 38 Kennedy 15 Stein 2 West 2
Quinnipiac Trump 39 Biden 38 Kennedy 13 Stein 4 West 3
Forbes/HarrisX Trump 42 Biden 40 Kennedy 14 Stein 2 West 2
Suffolk Trump 40 Biden 38 Kennedy 9 Stein 2 West 2

Trump 41.4 Biden 38.4 Kennedy 12.6 Stein 2.4 West 2.2

Kennedy tumbles notably below the qualifying line of 15%, despite being within a rounding error of it in the earlier editions of this post. Doesn't appear there is a lot for the duopoly to fear at this time.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think third party candidates could have a very strong antitrust case against the Commission on Presidential Debates.

It's been tried before: http://www.plainsite.org/dockets/2npxbd4tc/district-of-columbia-district-court/johnson-et-al-v-commission-on-presidential-debates-et-al/

Basically, because the commission establishes criteria ahead of time that it holds everyone to and that any candidate could in theory meet, it's legal. Now if say Kennedy was polling at 18% in August and they changed the rules to exclude him, or if Biden was at 13% and they still tried to include him, you'd have a case. But so far they have adhered to their pre-established criteria, including admitting Perot in '92, so there's no issue.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kennedy’s PAC reported that they got the signatures for Michigan some time ago. I think this new development is that he’s getting access in Michigan via the Natural Law Party. Presumably, the process may be quicker or simpler  if he’s on the ballot because of this party?

The DNC had been filing complaints  that the signatures acquired by RFK Jr’s super PAC are invalid , so I wonder if kennedy’s team is no longer relying on the signatures acquired by the super PAC

Yes many states lighten up the requirements if you're part of an established party that has had ballot access previously rather than just an independent/1 man party.