Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[S019]

Nothing from the City of Appleton yet.

The white area near Appleton is Lake Winnabago

[IceSpear]

I think it's always been pretty obvious that WI is the least fertile ground of the MI/PA/WI trio. It's the state where Dems are most dependent on white rural voters to give them a winning coalition, which is problematic for obvious reasons. On top of that, Evers' victory margin in a D+9 Democratic wave year was not exactly impressive, and Dems did worse than Hillary in the one House seat they targeted in the state.

Tammy Baldwin beating a trash-tier candidate by a bit more than the NPV did not suddenly mean Wisconsin was back to being a Democratic stronghold again.

I think it's increasingly less true that Democrats need a lot of rural votes in Wisconsin, the way that Madison is growing and a lot of rural areas are shrinking. And you should know better than anyone why Democrats botched that race in WI-01 (not that it was really winnable.) I don't think it makes sense to call Wisconsin anything other than a Toss-Up, and while an argument could be made for Tilt D for Pennsylvania, I don't think that's a sure thing by any means, and will come down to many different things (the Democratic candidate, their strategy, their message, turnout, etc.) I'd be shocked if Pennsylvania voted more than 2-2.5% to the left of Wisconsin.

LOL yeah, I certainly know why they did worse than Hillary in WI-01, but that didn't stop the Atlas #populists from insisting I was an idiot, it was a toss up, and that it would be IMPOSSIBLE for Dems to lose by double digits and do worse than Hillary because #WWCpopulism or something.

It's true that Dems aren't as reliant on rurals in Wisconsin anymore, but they're still more dependent on them than they are in Michigan or Pennsylvania.

[Sestak]

New thread.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I reckon Atlas will be seeing a "D-Minnesota" tagline under my username in the next 5-6 months if Hagedorn wins! My faith in the future for WI Dems has officially been tainted.

Once I'm done with my degree, I'm officially out for sure. WI voters can keep their state backwards if they want.

Fortunately, I'll be graduating with my MA degree from Edgewood College in Madison next month. After that, I can easily leave Wisconsin.

[S019]

This race just reaffirmed that WI is a Tossup and will probably be the 2020 tipping point, it could become a bellwether state, but no WI will not be Safe R anytime soon, unless Milwaukee is ceded to Illinois and Madison becomes its own state

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Was going to reply to a post in the other thread, but:

Re: Outagamie oustanding precincts, the 18 that have reported so far are villages and townships. All of the Appleton precincts, which should be more favorable to Neubauer, are still out.

Obviously there aren't enough votes there to make a difference but this will narrow the margin a little bit.

e: https://www.outagamie.org/government/departments-a-e/county-clerk/elections/election-results

[Gass3268]

Lol, Neubauer is going to win more counties than Evers.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50.2%   583,436
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     49.8%   579,652
3515 of 3638 (97%) Precincts Reporting, 1,163,088 Total Votes

[S019]

Was going to reply to a post in the other thread, but:

Re: Outagamie oustanding precincts, the 18 that have reported so far are villages and townships. All of the Appleton precincts, which should be more favorable to Neubauer, are still out.

Obviously there aren't enough votes there to make a difference but this will narrow the margin a little bit.

e: https://www.outagamie.org/government/departments-a-e/county-clerk/elections/election-results

What do you know about Trempaleau, when we those votes coming in

[YE]

Basically it's over unless there's absentees still left in Madison and Milwaukee (ala a 2018).

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Lol, Neubauer is going to win more counties than Evers.

Clearly, we need an electoral college-style system here in Wisconsin.

[Virginiá]

well that sucks

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Was going to reply to a post in the other thread, but:

Re: Outagamie oustanding precincts, the 18 that have reported so far are villages and townships. All of the Appleton precincts, which should be more favorable to Neubauer, are still out.

Obviously there aren't enough votes there to make a difference but this will narrow the margin a little bit.

e: https://www.outagamie.org/government/departments-a-e/county-clerk/elections/election-results

What do you know about Trempaleau, when we those votes coming in

MJS has Trempaleau 100% in. Neubauer netted something silly like 30 votes there.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Imagine wanting to leave a state over the result of a state Supreme Court election.

[Bidenworth2020]

well that sucks

understatement of the year?

[Gass3268]

Neubauer won Kimberly and Kaukauna in Outagamie County. Evers didn't even do that.

[IceSpear]

well that sucks

understatement of the year?

Unless you live in Wisconsin I don't see how it would merit any stronger of a reaction than that.

[Beet]

The bleakest part of the night is that WI is going to be ground zero in 2020, the D nominee campaign is going to call Arch and that "Scottie" guy getting their MA degree for GOTV, and they'll say they moved out of the state because D's lost some judge race in 2019.

[Dr. Arch]

The bleakest part of the night is that WI is going to be ground zero in 2020, the D nominee campaign is going to call Arch and that "Scottie" guy getting their MA degree for GOTV, and they'll say they moved out of the state because D's lost some judge race in 2019.

lol, I'm going for a PhD, not an MA; I already have that one. Also, I'll be here until 2021, so you can zip it when it comes to 2020. I'll still work the vote.

[Xing]

Democrats need to spend a ton of time in Milwaukee and Detroit to GOTV. While I don't doubt that turnout in Milwaukee will be better in a presidential election, this isn't the first example of weak turnout there being one of the key reasons for a narrow Democratic loss.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Here is your quasi-final map per the Journal-Sentinel.



122 precincts left. Outagamie still has 70-80 precincts left, Door and Madison have 2 left, Pierce, Manitowoc, Sheboygan and Polk have 1. Not sure about the rest. Pierce is currently decided by 30 votes.

Neubauer lost Kenosha (which Evers won) but won Trempealeau, Door and Lafayette which Evers lost.

[IceSpear]

The bleakest part of the night is that WI is going to be ground zero in 2020, the D nominee campaign is going to call Arch and that "Scottie" guy getting their MA degree for GOTV, and they'll say they moved out of the state because D's lost some judge race in 2019.

Yeah guys, at least wait until 2020 to see if Trump carries it again before giving up on Wisconsin. We might need those 2 votes!

[Dr. Arch]

The bleakest part of the night is that WI is going to be ground zero in 2020, the D nominee campaign is going to call Arch and that "Scottie" guy getting their MA degree for GOTV, and they'll say they moved out of the state because D's lost some judge race in 2019.

Yeah guys, at least wait until 2020 to see if Trump carries it again before giving up on Wisconsin.

See above

[Dr. Arch]

If you had shown me just that map, I would have guessed something like Neubauer +6 or 7.

Yep, MKE screwing the pooch again.

Also, are those 200ish precincts out early votes? If so, this is not over yet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50.2%   588,823
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     49.8%   584,325
3535 of 3638 (97%) Precincts Reporting, 1,173,148 Total Votes

HAGEDORN MY KING!!!!!!